It seems a lifetime ago. But in the beginning of 2022, we had the lockout and there were concerns about how many games would actually take place this season. Fortunately, we got all 162. But that was unknown when the projection series started. Because of this, we moved to all rate-based stats for the individual projections. The categories for hitters were: AVG, OBP, SLG, BB% and K%. Today we’re going to check in on the infield and catcher projections and see how they matched with reality.
Projection – .229/.292/.404, 7.1 BB%, 28.7 K%
Reality — .195/.257/.282, 5.8 BB%, 24.1 K&
My hope was that McCann would sell out for power. That didn’t quite happen and he was even worse than my forecast, so perhaps he should have. The best thing about my prediction was that my forecast had a spread between his AVG and OBP of .063 and in reality, it was an .062 spread.
The ones who left a forecast in the comments section were all more optimistic with McCann than me, so no great results to report there.
Projection – .270/.348/.546, 8.7 BB%, 18.0 K%
Reality — .271/.352/.518, 9.8 BB%, 18.7 K%
My 2021 projections were absolutely horrible. So, give me a second to gloat about this Alonso forecast. Ahhh … thanks! My expectation was for more power than Alonso gave in reality. And that included a 40-HR season from him. Guess my expectation was for 45, instead.
Steve S. predicted a .525 SLG.
Projection – .299/.364/.459, 6.8 BB%, 12.5 K%
Reality — .326/.383/.454, 6.8 BB%, 10.4 K%
While this one wasn’t as good as a forecast as Alonso’s, it was still pretty good, especially given the year McNeil had in 2021. The highest OPS from the computer models was the .779 forecasted by Steamer, while mine was .823 and in reality, it was .837 for McNeil. Additionally, nailing the BB% and coming within five points on the SLG was pretty good.
Metsense had him with a .458 SLG.
Projection – .258/.302/.415, 5.7 BB%, 19.6 K%
Reality — .240/.295/.430, 7.4 BB%, 23.8 K%
This projection was solid but it’s even better than it looks on the surface. The computer models predicted OPS marks between .734 and .771, while mine was .717 and in reality, it was .725 this year for Escobar.
There were lots of good predictions in the comments section. Wobbit had him for a .253 AVG and a .425 SLG. Metsense had him for a .311 OPB and a 7.4 BB%.
Projection – .278/.342/.514, 8.3 BB%, 14.0 K%
Reality — .270/.339/.449, 8.4 BB%, 18.8 K%
Clearly, my forecast overshot his power. But it was pretty good in every other category. To be fair, the computer models nailed the power production.
Several commenters picked .275/.340 for his AVG/OBP. Metsense had his SLG at .462, the lowest out of the bunch.