It seems a lifetime ago. But in the beginning of 2022, we had the lockout and there were concerns about how many games would actually take place this season. Fortunately, we got all 162. But that was unknown when the projection series started. Because of this, we moved to all rate-based stats for the individual projections. The categories for hitters were: AVG, OBP, SLG, BB% and K%. Today we’re going to check in on the infield and catcher projections and see how they matched with reality.
James McCann
Projection – .229/.292/.404, 7.1 BB%, 28.7 K%
Reality — .195/.257/.282, 5.8 BB%, 24.1 K&
My hope was that McCann would sell out for power. That didn’t quite happen and he was even worse than my forecast, so perhaps he should have. The best thing about my prediction was that my forecast had a spread between his AVG and OBP of .063 and in reality, it was an .062 spread.
The ones who left a forecast in the comments section were all more optimistic with McCann than me, so no great results to report there.
Pete Alonso
Projection – .270/.348/.546, 8.7 BB%, 18.0 K%
Reality — .271/.352/.518, 9.8 BB%, 18.7 K%
My 2021 projections were absolutely horrible. So, give me a second to gloat about this Alonso forecast. Ahhh … thanks! My expectation was for more power than Alonso gave in reality. And that included a 40-HR season from him. Guess my expectation was for 45, instead.
Steve S. predicted a .525 SLG.
Jeff McNeil
Projection – .299/.364/.459, 6.8 BB%, 12.5 K%
Reality — .326/.383/.454, 6.8 BB%, 10.4 K%
While this one wasn’t as good as a forecast as Alonso’s, it was still pretty good, especially given the year McNeil had in 2021. The highest OPS from the computer models was the .779 forecasted by Steamer, while mine was .823 and in reality, it was .837 for McNeil. Additionally, nailing the BB% and coming within five points on the SLG was pretty good.
Metsense had him with a .458 SLG.
Eduardo Escobar
Projection – .258/.302/.415, 5.7 BB%, 19.6 K%
Reality — .240/.295/.430, 7.4 BB%, 23.8 K%
This projection was solid but it’s even better than it looks on the surface. The computer models predicted OPS marks between .734 and .771, while mine was .717 and in reality, it was .725 this year for Escobar.
There were lots of good predictions in the comments section. Wobbit had him for a .253 AVG and a .425 SLG. Metsense had him for a .311 OPB and a 7.4 BB%.
Francisco Lindor
Projection – .278/.342/.514, 8.3 BB%, 14.0 K%
Reality — .270/.339/.449, 8.4 BB%, 18.8 K%
Clearly, my forecast overshot his power. But it was pretty good in every other category. To be fair, the computer models nailed the power production.
Several commenters picked .275/.340 for his AVG/OBP. Metsense had his SLG at .462, the lowest out of the bunch.
Why do I feel Pete A. didn’t have as good a year as he actually did. Was it those those horribly timed K’s?
Anyway, he followed Judge’s 50+HR year with his own so…
By the way, if you had Judge & Pete, would you bat them back-to-back?
A lot depends on who else is in the lineup. Alonso and Judge are both RHB and it might make sense to split them up so that LHB don’t get bunched together and invite a lefty reliever.
I confess that i cannot understand the hesitance with Alonso’s production this year. Not only did beat the Mets single season RBI record he led the MLB in rbi- surely that must be clutch? – but also led the league (at least until somewhere near the end of the season when he had a commanding lead) in game winning rbi (not the fantastical walk off hits, but those rbi that place the Mets ahead in the game for good, including walk-offs). So there may be the Ks that are hard to watch, but they are well more than matched by his game-scale production and a season with 160 games played, a 146 OPS+, and a 4.4 bWAR. I’ll take that all day every and I’d sign him for 10 more years in the next week.
Maybe we need to celebrate when we have a player that makes real accomplishments.
Pete Alonso? He’s gonna have #20 retired by the Mets.
+1
McCann’s offensive performance was downright stunning. I don’t mean to pick on McCann, who is likely a good guy. This drop off, from a guy that had MLB quality success over 500-600 PA, is something I don’t recall seeing over decades of following MLB. We all know Alvarez will be in Flushing in 2023, but it will be interesting to see how the Mets handle the C position. Will they keep both Nido and McCann, and allow Alvarez to spot catch and DH?