After checking in on the projections for catcher and infielders in our first look back, this time around we’re going to do the outfielders and designated hitter. Because of the lockout, we looked at rate stats only – forecasting AVG, OBP, SLG, BB% and K%. Unlike in 2021, we saw some good projections right away with the first batch of players. Will that follow thru to the second batch, too?
Mark Canha
Projected – .235/.366/.393, 13.1 BB%, 21.9 K%
Actual — .266/.367/.403, 8.9 BB%, 17.9 K%
That’s pretty much a HR on the OBP and SLG. Although, it’s nothing to write home about with the other three categories. Canha had the BABIP luck early in the season, which meant the AVG projection was shot right off the bat. But it was also a lot of soft contact early. Canha turned things around later in the season and started driving the ball. While his AVG dropped, his SLG went from .366 on 8/12 to .403 by the end of the year. Not easy bringing up your slugging by 37 points that late in the year, especially for a guy not known as a power hitter.
Metsense had him with a 13.3 BB% and a 21.2 K%.
Brandon Nimmo
Projected – .275/.405/.485, 15.0 BB%, 25.0 K%
Actual — .274/.367/.433, 10.5 BB%, 17.2 K%
This was a pretty bad miss by me. Started off great, with nailing the AVG but everything else was a train wreck. There were too many weak-hit balls and not enough balls driven into the gap by NImmo. And the lack of power is even more stark when you consider how many of his doubles were balls that beat the shift by being slapped down the left field line. And only a strong push late in the year got his triple slash numbers this high. In his final 178 PA, Nimmo slashed .304/.418/.507 – much closer to my projection than what he did earlier in the season.
Wobbit had him with a .380 OBP and a .420 SLG.
Starling Marte
Projected – .269/.332/.399, 6.6 BB%, 18.5 K%
Actual — .292/.347/.468, 5.1 BB%, 19.2 K%
Well, if my forecast is going to be wrong, it’s great to be off because the player exceeded expectations. It helped Marte to have a .340 BABIP but he also displayed more power than anticipated. And it might have been even more wrong if Marte didn’t miss the final four weeks of the season, as he was hitting pretty good when he got hit and was forced to the IL. Overall, it wasn’t an awful forecast – the OBP, BB% and K% were somewhat in the ballpark – but it wasn’t a good one, either.
Steve S had Marte with a .345 OBP and Metsense had him at .346
And now it’s going to get 2021 ugly with the next projection!
Dominic Smith
Projected – .275/.340/.515, 7.6 BB%, 23.0 K%
Actual — .194/.276/.284, 7.9 BB%, 24.3 K%
Let’s state the obvious – Smith was lousy, he was terrible and shoot, he was awful, too. But he got caught up in a chicken-egg thing. He didn’t hit enough to deserve more playing time but he was terrible (in part) because he didn’t get enough playing time. I’d like to see the alternate universe where they cut Robinson Cano before Spring Training and Smith got the 90 PA in April that Eduardo Escobar got, rather than the 44 PA he did get. As for the projection, there was a sliver of redemption with the BB and K numbers being right.
Nobody in the comments section thought he would be anywhere close to this bad. In fact, there was even a prediction here and there more optimistic than mine!
*****
We’ll finish up the projection review with a look at the pitcher next time up.
Do your projections do PA counts?
From the second sentence of TFA: Because of the lockout, we looked at rate stats only
missed that.
At age 27 Dom Smith had almost 2x as many minor league PAs as in the MLB. Thats a desperately bad sign.
Just can’t figure out what went south with Dom. He was a Covid season star in 2020 that we all thought was great part of the roster even though there was no clear place for him to play in the field in 2021 if not at first base. He had been much improved in LF although still seen as a defensive liability. The 2022 roster had very few of those in the field and clearly Dom played himself first to the bench and then to Syracuse and likely now headed in an off-season trade to a team that could use a strong 1B and the potential of the bat he used to swing. A change of scenery is in order and I wish him well. About 4 months until pitchers and catchers report and it can’t come soon enough with what will be the next year of the Cohen rebuild. Sadly Ya Gotta Believe almost always turns into wait till next year.