Here’s the final look back at the preseason projections. Forecasts were done for the five starting pitchers and the closer. The predictions were good for the infielders and not so great for the outfielders. Which direction will the pitcher forecasts tip the scales? Because of the lockout, only rate stats were used. The categories for pitchers were: ERA, WHIP, HR/9, BB/9, K/9.
Max Scherzer
Projected – 2.76 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 10.9 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
Actual – 2.29 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 1.49 BB/9, 10.71 K/9, 0.89 HR/9
I’m particularly proud of this forecast, as none of the computer models had him with an ERA under 3.00, with the 3.08 of ZiPS being the lowest. The WHIP, BB and Ks were all good forecasts. Mine had Scherzer giving up more HR. The fact that he didn’t (until the playoffs) was why his ERA was so, so good.
Wobbit had a 2.64 ERA and Metsense had a 1.0 HR/9
Jacob deGrom
Projected – 200 IP in a full season and other numbers better than the most optimistic numbers above.
Actual – 3.08 ERA, .706 WHIP, 1.12 BB/9, 14.27 K/9, 1.26 HR/9
Not sure why there was that blanket forecast for deGrom. Let’s just say that shouldn’t happen again moving forward. “Numbers above” refers to the computer forecasts in the original projection article. The WHIP and the K numbers hinted at “better than the most optimistic number” would be a good forecast. The other numbers – well, not so much.
None of the projections from the comments section are worth a mention.
Carlos Carrasco
Projected – 4.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.52 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 1.39 HR/9
Actual – 3.97 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, 9.00 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, 1.01 HR/9
When THE BAT had a 5.02 ERA forecast for Carrasco and three other computer models had him with a higher ERA than mine, I feel pretty good. Carrasco had better BB, K and HR numbers than my forecast, so it’s not a surprise that he turned in a better ERA than my forecast. But he was done in by a .337 BABIP. Carrasco’s FIP (3.53) and xFIP (3.45) show a much better pitcher. Maybe he’s not done after all.
Steve S had a 2.50 BB/9 while Metsense had a 9,02 K/9.
Taijuan Walker
Projected – 4.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9
Actual – 3.49 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, 7.55 K.9, 2.57 BB/9, 0.86 HR/9
Outside of strikeouts, Walker was much better than I anticipated. He succeeded by absolutely dominating the weak teams of the league. He was an honorary Braves pitcher in that regard. Is it sustainable? If he actually did play on the Braves, that type of fortune would go on and on and on. In the reality of the other 29 MLB teams? Nobody knows.
BoomBoom projected a 3.90 ERA while Metsense had him for a 1.20 WHIP.
Chris Bassitt
Projected – 3.52 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.83 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 0.97 HR/9
Actual – 3.42 ERA, 1.145 WHIP. 8.27 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9
Wow, this was a pretty terrific forecast, especially given how the computer models forecasted his ERA and HR rate much higher. Still hate to watch him pitch, though. Keep going back and forth on whether I wanted the Mets to re-sign him.
Steve S projected a 1.10 WHIP
Edwin Diaz
Projected – 3.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 14.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
Actual – 1.31 ERA, 0.839 WHIP, 17.13 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 0.44 HR/9
I had a higher K/9, a lower BB/9 and a lower HR/9 than any computer forecast. Diaz blew my numbers away in those categories. And the other ones, too. Absolutely no one saw the year coming that Diaz put together. This season compares very favorably to the 2018 one that prompted the Mets to trade for him in the first place. And as an impending free agent, it couldn’t have come at a better time for Diaz. Should the Mets pay him at the top of the closer’s market? Approximately nine times out of a 10 the answer is no.
No one was going to predict Diaz’ numbers. So, let’s give a shoutout to BoomBoom, who projected a “stud year for Diaz.”