Did the Mets throw it away?

One of the biggest issues with the New York Mets in many seasons in recent history was their willingness to over-trade offense for defense.  This was always evident in the outfield and definitely a known issue with third base, in the years between Felix Mantilla and Robin Ventura. There is no need to have everyone be a plus defender – there is an appropriate balance. Players should be average or better at their position when one considers offense and defense.

One key point to remember is runs saved are equivalent to runs created, plus a little more uncertainty, and ten runs equals one WAR.  As we discuss defensive runs being saved, it helps the framing of a player’s performance.  The second key note regarding “replacement level” for defense is replacement level defenders are league average defenders. That is why Runs Saved is above average.

Looking around the Mets infield we can start with Pete Alonso.  Alonso is a known quantity, and he is in the lineup for his bat. The most important thing on defense Alonso can do is not be terrible, and he isn’t. Most systems agree that he is slightly below average, even for a first baseman.  He is just 5-7 runs below average, and he makes up for it from a value perspective with his bat. Is Dominic Smith likely a bit smoother around the bag? Yes, however he doesn’t hit nearly as much.  While Alonso is not likely to win a Gold Glove, he is adequate.

Jeff McNeil has had ups and downs at second base because he is about average.  In a given season, like 2022, he will have played well, and instead of just missing a few balls, he got them, and ended up a positive in the calculations but basically around average. Put that together with his bat, and he is a top tier second baseman. The Mets did well at second base as Luis Guillorme is a solid fielder there as well.

The Mets did make the effort to sign Francisco Lindor and he has delivered as a premier shortstop. He is a Gold Glove-caliber defender, approximately 10 runs above average, narrowly missing on the Gold Glove in 2022. Guillorme also plays shortstop well, ensuring the Mets have strong defense up the middle.

Third base is still problematic. Eduardo Escobar hit a little better than recent position holders, and fielded a little better, but was still well below average with the mitt. Every system rates Escobar as below average to well below average and those runs are costly. Escobar, like nearly every player, has simply aged out of being a good fielder. This year he was bad enough that Guillorme managed to produce a higher WAR in 200 fewer plate appearances. Unfortunately, Escobar is signed for two more seasons, and previous managements would not understand a sunk cost.

Left field was once the domain of sloth-like home run hitters. The Mets have eschewed that view for nearly three decades, not always on purpose. Mark Canha is an adequate left fielder.  He is also 33, with two more years on his contract.  Canha seems to be able to catch balls appropriately, but his arm was subpar. Many left fielders have had subpar arms. However, they hit lots of home runs. Canha’s offense continued to offset his weak throwing in 2022. He is at the edge of the cliff though.

Brandon Nimmo had a good year in center field. He finally was healthy for an entire season, and it showed ont eh field by a solid margin.  Nimmo was not in the elite, but he was solidly above average, and coupled with his bat, was only behind Atlanta’s Michael Harris III as the top WAR CF in the National League. More impressively, he was fifth overall behind Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and wunderkind Julio Rodriguez in the American League. Nimmo should be a solid producer for several more seasons.

Starling Marte suffered a hand injury near the end of the season that took him off the field at a crucial time for the Mets. He is another 33-year-old player, one of three in the Mets every day lineup. Marte still showed a strong throwing arm in right field, and decent range to play an average right field defense. Marte’s offense was strong putting him third in the NL in WAR behind Mookie Betts and Juan Soto.

The last position on the diamond with a defensive impact is catcher. There is little point in belaboring the Mets extreme lack of production at the plate this season, but there is also concern about the lack of production behind the dish. Tomas Nido did get a nod as a Gold Glove finalist and did save some runs. Nonetheless his bat was so far below average, his fielding and framing do not quite make up for the overall performance.

Overall the Mets defense provided good support, average or above, for the pitching staff. That’s significantly different than most seasons in recent history.  Bad fielding loses games very quickly. The target for 2023 should be replacing the third base defense and the catcher offense, while keeping an eye on the age of the players.