Prior to the 2015 season, my top 10 list had Rafael Montero #1 and Noah Syndergaard #2. That one hasn’t worked out very well, as Syndergaard has posted 21.0 fWAR in his career to date while Montero has just a 3.7 mark. Both are free agents this year and Montero just inked a 3/$34.5 million deal. That seems surprising to me. He did not make FanGraphs’ list of top 50 free agents. Tim Britton did one for The Athletic on starting pitchers and the reliever Montero didn’t make that one, either.
Meanwhile FG has Syndergaard as the 27th-best free agent available this offseason. Ben Clemens projected him to get a 2/$24 deal while the crowd sourcing had him with a median 2/$20 projection. Britton was more bullish on Syndergaard, saying:
We’ve generally seen pitchers with Syndergaard’s recent WAR profile landing deals for a year or two at $9 million or $10 million per year. There’s no doubt he’ll exceed that in AAV.
snip
I can see a two-year deal at $32 million working.
Both pitchers have experienced injury problems at the MLB level. Montero’s injury forced him to the pen, while Syndergaard’s turned him from an ace to an SP4, perhaps an SP5.
No one was more of a Montero fan than me in the middle of the last decade. But I’m shocked at how MLB clubs may view him as more favorable than Sydnergaard this offseason. Can Syndergaard get the three-year deal that Montero did? Can he exceed Montero’s AAV of $11.5 million?
Or is the Montero signing, along with the Edwin Diaz contract, just another example of how much money is available now that labor peace has been established? If so, it’s crazy to think how much money Aaron Judge and Trea Turner may end up getting.
Will Syndergaard get a contract that exceeds Montero's 3/$34.5 million deal?
- Yes in AAV but no in years (40%, 4 Votes)
- No in both years and AAV (30%, 3 Votes)
- Yes, in both years and AAV (20%, 2 Votes)
- Yes in years but no in AAV (10%, 1 Votes)
Total Voters: 10
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The question is would we consider a reunion with Thor who dumped us for a few million dollars believing that he would be an ace coming off of pitching 2 innings In 2 years. Now year 3 is in the books and he lost 5 MPH off FB that batters were still hitting even when it was close to 100 MPH and his ERA jumped up. Two years at $14 million would be my numbers for a solid P3-P4 who still has a lot to prove. Some team will over pay for him because all of the money is absurd these days when you risk losing a pitcher who was paid $7 million because you fail to offer a qualifying offer that sits over $19 million. Time will tell. Would rather sign Bassitt because at least we know what he can do.
I think Syndergaard will get something in the range of Montero, and probably exceed it by a bit. I would guess something in the 3/$40 to 3/$45 range because, as NYM6986 said, someone will overpay. I also was very surprised that the Mets didn’t give Walker a QO. I would doubt that he would take it, and then we would get the draft capital, and if he did take it, and we got him back for $19-$20M for one year, well, I could live with that.
It all depends on the probability of Thor regaining his velocity. There’s enough statistics out there to measure that. Without his old pop he’s barely worth $10 million a year.
ChrisF:
In total denial such an article can even exist.
Syndergaard should end up with an AAV around $13 -14 m. He will think he is worth more than that. Teams will point out to him that his velocity is diminished. Privately, the teams know that a thrower not not a pitcher. Therefore he get a two contract with a opt-out after the first year.
Montero just raised the salary market for set up men. It is a head scratcher.