Prior to the 2015 season, my top 10 list had Rafael Montero #1 and Noah Syndergaard #2. That one hasn’t worked out very well, as Syndergaard has posted 21.0 fWAR in his career to date while Montero has just a 3.7 mark. Both are free agents this year and Montero just inked a 3/$34.5 million deal. That seems surprising to me. He did not make FanGraphs’ list of top 50 free agents. Tim Britton did one for The Athletic on starting pitchers and the reliever Montero didn’t make that one, either.
Meanwhile FG has Syndergaard as the 27th-best free agent available this offseason. Ben Clemens projected him to get a 2/$24 deal while the crowd sourcing had him with a median 2/$20 projection. Britton was more bullish on Syndergaard, saying:
We’ve generally seen pitchers with Syndergaard’s recent WAR profile landing deals for a year or two at $9 million or $10 million per year. There’s no doubt he’ll exceed that in AAV.
I can see a two-year deal at $32 million working.
Both pitchers have experienced injury problems at the MLB level. Montero’s injury forced him to the pen, while Syndergaard’s turned him from an ace to an SP4, perhaps an SP5.
No one was more of a Montero fan than me in the middle of the last decade. But I’m shocked at how MLB clubs may view him as more favorable than Sydnergaard this offseason. Can Syndergaard get the three-year deal that Montero did? Can he exceed Montero’s AAV of $11.5 million?
Or is the Montero signing, along with the Edwin Diaz contract, just another example of how much money is available now that labor peace has been established? If so, it’s crazy to think how much money Aaron Judge and Trea Turner may end up getting.
Will Syndergaard get a contract that exceeds Montero's 3/$34.5 million deal?
- Yes in AAV but no in years (40%, 4 Votes)
- No in both years and AAV (30%, 3 Votes)
- Yes, in both years and AAV (20%, 2 Votes)
- Yes in years but no in AAV (10%, 1 Votes)
Total Voters: 10