Why pulling the ball is a good thing for almost all hitters

13 comments on “Why pulling the ball is a good thing for almost all hitters”

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  Brian Joura On November 20, 2022 at 9:47 am

  Yuck when I previewed this, the column headers showed up in color on both charts. But now that it’s published, it’s showing up in dark grey. Doesn’t look as nice but the second chart is still sortable. And you don’t have to click on the triangle/arrow, either. Click anywhere in the the top cell of the column you want to sort and it will work.
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  MikeW On November 21, 2022 at 9:23 am

  The Mets have to be bold when they remake the team this off season. I like McNeil, but, he stole four bases and scored 73 runs. You would expect more from a slap hitter.

  His BABIP was .353. I would expect a regression. I’d rather have him .280 and hit 25 home runs and more doubles.

  In 1960, the Tigers traded batting champion Harvey Kuenn to the Indians for home run champion Rocky Colavito.

  I absolutely would consider selling high on McNeil for pitching.
  • 

    BobP On November 21, 2022 at 12:43 pm

    I still haven’t figures out why McNeil is not held in higher regard by a lot of people. Last year the majority of people here wanted to run him out of town based on a bad year in 2021, even though he had a track record of being one of the best all around hitters in baseball for the 3 years before that. He proved those folks wrong in 2022, by having a year on par with his first 3. I don’t see him as a sell high candidate. This is what he has done 4 out of 5 big league seasons. Other than his 2021 season, which was bad, his OPS+ has been 138,143,130 and 140. That’s about as consistent as you can get, and how many guys in MLB can match that? Also, as Chris mentioned his BABIP is not far off from his career numbers. I agree that I would trade off some of the batting average for more power, but don’t agree that we should be looking to dump him before he regresses.
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  ChrisF On November 21, 2022 at 11:11 am

  McNeil was interviewed quite a few times through 2002 in which he said he made a major change from hitting for power in 21 to “finding the hole” in 22. The interviews about his hitting approach are easily available searching on google. He is looking to find a hole and hit iy where the defense cant get to it. He laughs off the drop in hard hit balls and frankly made it clear, he doesnt care. The propped up BABIP for 22 is a myth. The only year he had a sub .335 BABIP was in 21, when he went pull happy and power hungry.

  As for runs scored – if people behind arent driving him in then it wont happen. He not scoring runs because he runs like Vogelbach.
  • 

    Foxdenizen On November 21, 2022 at 12:02 pm

    To expand on your runs scored Chris, he was being batted 7th and eighth far too often, its harder to score runs when you’ve got a McCann, say, batting behind you.
  • 

    Brian Joura On November 21, 2022 at 12:11 pm

    Sometimes players are the last ones to know what makes them worthwhile. Joe Morgan was a great, great baseball player. But Joe Morgan the announcer used to scoff at things he did that made him great and acted like insignificant things were the keys to winning.

    Go where the hard evidence takes you. If you look at Luis Guillorme, he had the most success last year hitting the ball to the opposite field. It would be foolish to tell him to abandon that and instead look to pull the ball. That’s where the hard evidence leads you.

    McNeil had outstanding success pulling the ball both last year and in 2019 and 2020, too. While the article ignored the Covid year, McNeil had a 1.125 OPS when he pulled the ball and a .670 OPS when he hit the ball the other way in 2020. That’s where the hard evidence leads you.

    If McNeil wants to kid himself and attribute his success to “not trying to hit homers,” I’d hope the hitting coaches play along. “Hey Jeff, while you’re not trying to hit homers how about pulling the ball and see if you can make the right fielder chase after the ball you hit and pick it up after it hits the wall.”
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  ChrisF On November 21, 2022 at 12:49 pm

  McNeils spray charts for all batted balls clearly shows he pulled more in 2021, the year he sucked. He should not be a pull-happy uppercut-swinging, reach for the fences robot. He tried. It failed. The spray charts chow it all perfectly clearly.

  I say, Let McNeil be McNeil.

  If you dont like his approach thats fine, or of you think he should be traded for someone with a different approach thats also fine. But he’s figured it out big time, with much lower exit velo’s in 22, and hittin it where they aint.
  • 

    Brian Joura On November 21, 2022 at 1:21 pm

    We can say things without proof. Or we can look up and see what really happened. McNeil’s year-by-year pull percentage:

    2018 – 35.6
    2019 – 46.3
    2020 – 38.9
    2021 – 35.0
    2022 – 34.0

    https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jeff-mcneil/15362/stats?position=2B/OF

    I don’t believe he should be traded. I think he’s a wonderful asset for the Mets, one who could be even better if he got his pull percentage back into the area it was in 2019-2020.
    • 

      ChrisF On November 21, 2022 at 2:14 pm

      apologies on the spray chart comment, I had a mistake in making the years compare with the date selection in their tool.

      the difference seems less in pull and more in deliberate hitting approach, including pull and opposite. he made it clear in interviews he was trying to hit for power (typically pull) in 21 and was a failure. This year, and in successful years he hot the ball for hits where ever they landed
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  NYM6986 On November 22, 2022 at 7:21 am

  Wow Brian, this was def a stat overload with lots to digest but as usual you support your premise with facts. Hit ‘‘em where they ain’t is an old baseball adage. So there is room to pull and room to go the other way if the circumstances present it like advancing a runner or simply setting the table for the batters up next. McNeil should be a staple on this team for years to come based on his hitting ability and fielding flexibility at different positions. It will be interesting to see the differences in batting average and ERA with the restrictions on the shift. How many balls are pulled into the hole only to have another infielder stationed on the outfield grass? How many balls are smashed right over 2nd base only to have another infielder standing there? With all the stupid measures to shorten the length of the games, eliminating the shift will do just the opposite. Then they widen the bases by 3 inches that puts the base stealer 6 inches closer to a safe call taking off for second base. These two changes would have added 20 points to McNeil’s average and maybe Nimmo would not be so hesitant to steal a base. Waiting for the hot stove to heat up so we can see who our team will be for 2023. LGM
  • 

    Brian Joura On November 22, 2022 at 10:35 am

    Thanks for the kind words!

    I think there’s fascinating info here that maybe got lost by the readers because I used McNeil as a way to directly incorporate the information. My guess is that intuitively that we all knew that the results were going to be better when hitters pulled the ball. But at the same time, I think most everyone would be shocked by how much of an advantage it is in reality for the overwhelming number of hitters.
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  T.J. On November 22, 2022 at 5:03 pm

  Brian, the analysis is great. The numbers pretty much back up the obvious regarding pulling. Anyone that has played at any level, which is more or less everyone, knows you can hit it harder and farther by pulling almost all the time. But, there is always a but. It depends on both the pitch and the situation. In general, hitters should be trying to drive the ball, and that is mostly done by pulling. While old folk like me lament the three true outcomes, the players know that this is generally the best game plan…more runs will score by swinging for the fences and trying to elevate, even with two strikes. However, there is still a place in the game for going the other way, or going up with single in mind instead of long ball. I think the best all around hitters in the game still understand, the problem is that there are a lot of guys that just think in one way in every situation. I do wonder if the overall increase in velocity in today’s game has resulted in such a big decrease in reaction time that the modern hitter just doesn’t have the same opportunity to be a situational hitter and/or go the other way as the past players did.
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  Metsense On November 22, 2022 at 5:17 pm

  Brian, as you pointed out with overwhelming evidence, pulling the ball is a good thing for most hitters. Chris pointed out with a quote that McNeil wanted to “finding the hole”. In 2023 the anti-shift rules in are effect. There will be only two infielders on the right side with their feet on the dirt and no more triangle defense. McNeil should benefit again by still pulling and hitting up the middle , like he has been, because there will be more area to ” finding the hole” on the right side. McNeil should have a monster year in 2023.