It’s a fascinating phenomenon on how when people want something to be true that they’ll ignore all evidence to the contrary. Carl Everett didn’t believe in dinosaurs and The Flat Earth Society is still a thing. Let’s add to that the belief that Jeff McNeil had a good year in 2022 because he stopped trying to pull the ball.

On May 3, we looked into the evidence and found the following:

In 2021, when McNeil was allegedly looking to pull the ball for power, FanGraphs has him pulling the ball 35% of the time. Here’s what he did each year of his career previously:

2018 – 35.6%
2019 – 46.3%
2020 – 39.8%

Seems funny that he had the worst pull percentage in his career in the season that was ruined because he allegedly was abandoning his style of hitting to all fields in order to pull the ball. But it gets even crazier. This season, when he’s allegedly hitting to all fields, he’s pulling the ball more than he did last year. So far in 2022, McNeil has a 37.9 Pull%.

On Oct. 4, we again looked at the numbers and found this:

According to Baseball-Reference, McNeil has hit the ball to the opposite field 19% of the time this year, compared to 26% in 2021. But here’s the thing, when McNeil goes the other way, he has a .623 OPS this season, compared to a .672 mark in 2021.

There’s a belief that players who hit the ball to all fields are “better” than those who primarily pull the ball. Maybe those people think the hitters who spray the ball to all fields are tougher to pitch to or less prone to go into slumps. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter so much why people think that. The only thing that matters is if it’s true. And it’s possible that something is true for the MLB population but isn’t true for the individual.

Let’s examine the MLB population first. Here’s how all hitters did last year while pulling the ball, hitting the ball up the middle and when hitting the ball the other way. We’ll use Baseball-Reference for the numbers. B-R breaks down this category by handedness:

2022

PA AB H 2B 3B HR AVG OBP SLG SF
Pull-RHB 20,360 20,231 8,253 2,227 31 1,620 .408 .406 .761 98
Middle 40,281 39,730 11,932 1,840 180 1,372 .300 .297 .459 442
Opposite 14,421 14,160 4,342 808 105 271 .307 .302 .436 206
Pull-LHB 16,098 16,004 4,901 1,217 149 1,012 .306 .305 .591 64
Middle 24,400 24,002 7,642 1,187 152 820 .318 .315 .483 294
Opposite 8,103 7,923 2,599 661 24 120 .328 .323 .463 120
Totals 123,663 122,050 39,669 7,940 641 5,215 .325 .322 .529 1224

By far, the best outcome is for a RHB to pull the ball. The next best is for a LHB to pull the ball. Righties had a 1.167 OPS when they pulled the ball and lefties had an .896 mark. Here’s the breakdown for all six categories, ranking by OPS:

1.167 – RHB Pull
.896 – LHB Pull
.798 – LHB Middle
.786 – LHB Opposite
.756 – RHB Middle
.738 – RHB Opposite

To me, it’s completely expected that the best outcome is when a batter pulls the ball. But it’s shocking the difference between when RHB pull and when LHB pull. A .271 difference is gigantic. In 2021 the difference was .154 and in 2019 it was a .238 difference. Neither one is as big as the 2022 differential but we see a definite pattern of a triple-digit advantage for righty OPS over lefty OPS when they pull the ball.

Also, it’s a definite pattern to prefer pulling the ball the past three full seasons, as that’s the top two outcomes by a large margin in 2021 and 2019, too. Here’s the breakdown for those three full seasons:

1.210 – RHB Pulled (’19)
1.172 – RHB Pull (’21)
1.167 – RHB Pull (‘22)
1.018 – LHB Pull (’21)
.972 – LHB Pull (’19)
.904 – LHB Middle (’19)
.896 – LHB Pull (’22)
.856 – LHB Middle (’19)
.841 – RHB Middle (’19)
.816 – LHB Opposite (’21)
.805 – LHB Middle (’21)
.798 – LHB Middle (’22)
.798 – RHB Opposite (‘21)
.786 – LHB Opposite (’22)
.786 – RHB Middle (’21)
.779 – RHB Opposite (’19)
.756 – RHB Middle (’22)
.738 – RHB Opposite (’22)

It’s hard to imagine more conclusive evidence that for MLB hitters as a whole, you’d prefer your player to pull the ball. But, as mentioned earlier, just because something is true for the group doesn’t mean that it’s true for the individual. Let’s look at all of the hitters on the Mets for the last three full years to amass at least 250 PA in a season and see their breakdowns in pulling the ball, hitting up the middle and going the opposite way. This gives us a sample of 28 player seasons. With checking three hit locations for each player, and six for switch-hitters, that gives us 96 lines to examine.

Player Bats Location PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pete Alonso 2022 Right Pulled 151 .412 .404 .939 1.343
Pete Alonso 2022 Right Middle 237 .303 .300 .543 .842
Pete Alonso 2022 Right Opposite 87 .357 .345 .512 .857
Mark Canha 2022 Right Pulled 117 .436 .437 .761 1.197
Mrk Canha 2022 Right Middle 159 .291 .289 .411 .701
Mark Canha 2022 Right Opposite 92 .292 .283 .360 .642
Eduardo Escobar 2022 Right Pulled 39 .436 .436 1.000 1.436
Eduardo Escobar 2022 Right Middle 71 .329 .324 .586 .910
Eduardo Escobar 2022 Right Opposite 11 .200 .182 .400 .582
Eduardo Escobar 2022 Left Pulled 86 .298 .291 .714 1.005
Eduardo Escobar 2022 Left Middle 124 .336 .331 .451 .781
Eduardo Escobar 2022 Left Opposite 41 .268 .268 .342 .610
Luis Guillorme 2022 Left Pulled 53 .250 .250 .404 .654
Luis Guillorme 2022 Left Middle 152 .291 .291 .325 .616
Luis Guillorme 2022 Left Opposite 48 .500 .500 .646 1.146
Francisco Lindor 2022 Right Pulled 41 .450 .439 .850 1.289
Francisco Lindor 2022 Right Middle 84 .281 .274 .476 .749
Francisco Lindor 2022 Right Opposite 28 .357 .357 .464 .821
Francisco Lindor 2022 Left Pulled 120 .403 .400 .815 1.215
Francisco Lindor 2022 Left Middle 172 .331 .326 .479 .805
Francisco Lindor 2022 Left Opposite 56 .268 .268 .339 .607
Starling Marte 2022 Right Pulled 107 .411 .411 .654 1.065
Starling Marte 2022 Right Middle 195 .369 .369 .626 .995
Starling Marte 2022 Right Opposite 66 .303 .303 .394 .697
Jeff McNeil 2022 Left Pulled 140 .449 .443 .761 1.204
Jeff McNeil 2022 Left Middle 238 .364 .361 .441 .802
Jeff McNeil 2022 Left Opposite 94 .269 .266 .344 .610
Tomas Nido 2022 Right Pulled 42 .310 .310 .429 .738
Tomas Nido 2022 Right Middle 129 .358 .355 .517 .872
Tomas Nido 2022 Right Opposite 51 .261 .255 .261 .516
Brandon Nimmo 2022 Left Pulled 120 .328 .325 .605 .930
Brandon Nimmo 2022 Left Middle 256 .345 .345 .545 .890
Brandon Nimmo 2022 Left Opposite 93 .360 .352 .449 .801
Pete Alonso 2021 Right Pulled 119 .398 .395 1.025 1.420
Pete Alonso 2021 Right Middle 232 .288 .285 .515 .800
Pete Alonso 2021 Right Opposite 82 .415 .415 .634 1.049
Michael Conforto 2021 Left Pulled 96 .281 .281 .563 .844
Michael Conforto 2021 Left Middle 164 .313 .311 .479 .790
Michael Conforto 2021 Left Opposite 44 .372 .364 .558 .922
Francisco Lindor 2021 Right Pulled 38 .368 .368 .684 1.053
Francisco Lindor 2021 Right Middle 70 .235 .235 .368 .603
Francisco Lindor 2021 Right Opposite 18 .294 .294 .471 .765
Francisco Lindor 2021 Left Pulled 76 .373 .368 .720 1.088
Francisco Lindor 2021 Left Middle 123 .263 .258 .500 .758
Francisco Lindor 2021 Left Opposite 37 .270 .270 .378 .649
James McCann 2021 Right Pulled 58 .397 .397 .690 1.086
James McCann 2021 Right Middle 153 .291 .288 .384 .672
James McCann 2021 Right Opposite 51 .400 .392 .660 1.052
Jeff McNeil 2021 Left Pulled 85 .271 .271 .435 .706
Jeff McNeil 2021 Left Middle 182 .315 .313 .431 .744
Jeff McNeil 2021 Left Opposite 61 .279 .279 .393 .672
Brandon Nimmo 2021 Left Pulled 59 .424 .424 .797 1.220
Brandon Nimmo 2021 Left Middle 135 .343 .343 .463 .806
Brandon Nimmo 2021 Left Opposite 53 .462 .462 .635 1.096
Kevin Pillar 2021 Right Pulled 80 .468 .463 .987 1.450
Kevin Pillar 2021 Right Middle 120 .250 .250 .342 .592
Kevin Pillar 2021 Right Opposite 44 .182 .182 .364 .545
Dominic Smith 2021 Left Pulled 104 .291 .289 .466 .755
Dominic Smith 2021 Left Middle 185 .319 .314 .456 .770
Dominic Smith 2021 Left Opposite 50 .438 .420 .646 1.066
Jonathan Villar 2021 Right Pulled 38 .368 .368 .474 .842
Jonathan Villar 2021 Right Middle 49 .429 .429 .612 1.041
Jonathan Villar 2021 Right Opposite 16 .375 .375 .563 .938
Jonathan Villar 2021 Left Pulled 56 .268 .268 .643 .911
Jonathan Villar 2021 Left Middle 122 .339 .339 .587 .926
Jonathan Villar 2021 Left Opposite 43 .381 .381 .595 .976
Pete Alonso 2019 Right Pulled 126 .429 .429 .992 1.421
Pete Alonso 2019 Right Middle 234 .362 .359 .845 1.204
Pete Alonso 2019 Right Opposite 55 .296 .291 .463 .754
Robinson Cano 2019 Left Pulled 95 .263 .263 .579 .842
Robinson Cano 2019 Left Middle 169 .339 .337 .530 .867
Robinson Cano 2019 Left Opposite 60 .310 .300 .397 .607
Michael Conforto 2019 Left Pulled 143 .434 .434 .972 1.406
Michael Conforto 2019 Left Middle 189 .332 .323 .538 .861
Michael Conforto 2019 Left Opposite 72 .250 .250 .458 .708
J.D. Davis 2019 Right Pulled 74 .432 .432 .689 1.122
J.D. Davis 2019 Right Middle 182 .368 .368 .643 1.011
J.D. Davis 2019 Right Opposite 58 .482 .466 .857 1.323
Todd Frazier 2019 Right Pulled 111 .342 .342 .685 1.027
Todd Frazier 2019 Right Middle 184 .353 .353 .592 .946
Todd Frazier 2019 Right Opposite 46 .196 .196 .283 .478
Juan Lagares 2019 Right Pulled 29 .345 .345 .517 .862
Juan Lagares 2019 Right Middle 98 .323 .323 .438 .760
Juan Lagares 2019 Right Opposite 58 .228 .224 .456 .680
Jeff McNeil 2019 Left Pulled 163 .423 .423 .822 1.245
Jeff McNeil 2019 Left Middle 206 .351 .350 .542 .891
Jeff McNeil 2019 Left Opposite 67 .313 .313 .388 .702
Brandon Nimmo 2019 Left Pulled 44 .296 .296 .614 .909
Brandon Nimmo 2019 Left Middle 67 .391 .373 .688 1.061
Brandon Nimmo 2019 Left Opposite 21 .300 .300 .500 .800
Wilson Ramos 2019 Right Pulled 86 .372 .372 .593 .965
Wilson Ramos 2019 Right Middle 234 .297 .295 .392 .687
Wilson Ramos 2019 Right Opposite 87 .407 .402 .640 1.042
Amed Rosario 2019 Right Pulled 88 .398 .398 .602 1.000
Amed Rosario 2019 Right Middle 308 .357 .355 .564 .919
Amed Rosario 2019 Right Opposite 98 .333 .330 .417 .747

There’s a ton of data here and I’m not sure the best way to present it. So, we have a first here at Mets360 – a table that you can sort! The information is presented in alphabetical order by year. But if you want to see who has the highest OPS, just click the black triangle in that column to show results there. If you end up with the smallest number first, click the triangle again.

If you sort by OPS, you see that 11 of the top 12 numbers come when hitters pull the ball.
If you sort by AVG, you see that 10 of the top 15 numbers come when hitters pull the ball.
If you sort by SLG, you see that 17 of the top 19 numbers come when hitters pull the ball.

Additionally, you can sort by Player and see everyone alphabetically by their first name. If we scroll down to McNeil, we can see he has nine lines, so he makes the chart for all three years. His top AVG was when he pulled the ball in 2022 (.449) and his next best AVG was when he pulled the ball in 2019 (.429) while his best SLG came when he pulled the ball in 2019 (.822) and his second best came when he pulled the ball in 2022 (.761). And on the flip side, his worst year of OPS was when he went to the opposite field in 2022 (.610) and his next worse was when he hit to the opposite field in 2021 (.672).

McNeil pretty much functions like an average MLB hitter, one who does much better pulling the ball than going the other way. If you’re looking for someone who goes against the grain, one who does better by going the other way, look at Guillorme last year or Davis in 2019. Guillorme had a .654 OPS when he pulled the ball last year, compared to a 1.146 OPS when he went to the opposite field. For 2019 Davis, those numbers were 1.122 and 1.323, respectively.

Without a doubt, the answer isn’t for the majority of players to try to pull every pitch. There are pitches and counts where it makes the most sense to hit the ball the other way. Rather, this is for those “discretionary” pitches. When a batter finds himself ahead in the count and/or the pitch is middle-in, the overwhelming number of hitters, McNeil included, should be looking to rip the ball by pulling it.

In my opinion, McNeil was too eager to take a pitch he could have pulled and was content to hit it the other way last year when a team playing the shift gave him extra room on the left side of the infield. It’s my belief that McNeil should be more concerned with where the outfielders are playing, rather than the infielders. Singles are good. Doubles, triples and homers are better. And that’s what McNeil should be hunting whenever possible.

We watched Daniel Murphy transform from a guy who hit to all fields to one who pulled the ball more than either going up the middle or going the opposite way. From FanGraphs, here are Murphy’s year-by-year numbers for percentage of balls pulled, hit up the middle and hit the opposite way. We’ll also include his wRC+ for each year

2012 – 32.9, 38.1, 29.0 – 102 wRC+
2013 – 32.9, 38.1, 29.0 – 106 wRC+
2014 – 32.9, 38.1, 29.0 – 110 wRC+

Then in 2015, Kevin Long got Murphy to pull the ball more

2015 – 40.7, 31.3, 28.1 – 109 wRC+
2016 – 41.3, 33.0, 25.7 – 154 wRC+
2017 – 39.1, 36.3, 24.6 – 135 wRC+

While the change happened for Murphy in 2015, it didn’t happen on Opening Day. From the beginning of the season until the end of July, he had a 93 wRC+ and from August 1 until the end of the season, he had a 133 wRC+ and a 44.4 pull percentage.

From the end of 2015 thru 2017, Murphy still hit the majority of his balls either up the middle or to the opposite field. It’s just that with those “discretionary” balls, he stopped being so eager to go the other way and looked to pull the ball, instead. We’re generally talking about fewer than 10% of additional batted balls that we want players to pull rather than go up the middle or hit the other way.

Murphy had a similar number of PA in 2012 (612) and 2017 (593.) In 2012, he pulled 107 balls and in 2017 that number was 139. And in 2017, Murphy had a 1.410 OPS when he pulled the ball, which was even better than what McNeil did in either 2019 (1.245) or 2022 (1.204).

McNeil is coming off his best all-around season, as he posted a 5.9 fWAR in 2022. A lot of people want him to just keep doing what he did. But there’s room for more offensive growth. Last year, McNeil pulled the ball 140 times. Here’s hoping he gets to the 170 neighborhood in 2023. He can get there with a combination of playing a few more games and pulling the ball 5-10% more than he did last year.

13 comments on “Why pulling the ball is a good thing for almost all hitters

  • Brian Joura

    Yuck when I previewed this, the column headers showed up in color on both charts. But now that it’s published, it’s showing up in dark grey. Doesn’t look as nice but the second chart is still sortable. And you don’t have to click on the triangle/arrow, either. Click anywhere in the the top cell of the column you want to sort and it will work.

  • MikeW

    The Mets have to be bold when they remake the team this off season. I like McNeil, but, he stole four bases and scored 73 runs. You would expect more from a slap hitter.

    His BABIP was .353. I would expect a regression. I’d rather have him .280 and hit 25 home runs and more doubles.

    In 1960, the Tigers traded batting champion Harvey Kuenn to the Indians for home run champion Rocky Colavito.

    I absolutely would consider selling high on McNeil for pitching.

    • BobP

      I still haven’t figures out why McNeil is not held in higher regard by a lot of people. Last year the majority of people here wanted to run him out of town based on a bad year in 2021, even though he had a track record of being one of the best all around hitters in baseball for the 3 years before that. He proved those folks wrong in 2022, by having a year on par with his first 3. I don’t see him as a sell high candidate. This is what he has done 4 out of 5 big league seasons. Other than his 2021 season, which was bad, his OPS+ has been 138,143,130 and 140. That’s about as consistent as you can get, and how many guys in MLB can match that? Also, as Chris mentioned his BABIP is not far off from his career numbers. I agree that I would trade off some of the batting average for more power, but don’t agree that we should be looking to dump him before he regresses.

  • ChrisF

    McNeil was interviewed quite a few times through 2002 in which he said he made a major change from hitting for power in 21 to “finding the hole” in 22. The interviews about his hitting approach are easily available searching on google. He is looking to find a hole and hit iy where the defense cant get to it. He laughs off the drop in hard hit balls and frankly made it clear, he doesnt care. The propped up BABIP for 22 is a myth. The only year he had a sub .335 BABIP was in 21, when he went pull happy and power hungry.

    As for runs scored – if people behind arent driving him in then it wont happen. He not scoring runs because he runs like Vogelbach.

    • Foxdenizen

      To expand on your runs scored Chris, he was being batted 7th and eighth far too often, its harder to score runs when you’ve got a McCann, say, batting behind you.

    • Brian Joura

      Sometimes players are the last ones to know what makes them worthwhile. Joe Morgan was a great, great baseball player. But Joe Morgan the announcer used to scoff at things he did that made him great and acted like insignificant things were the keys to winning.

      Go where the hard evidence takes you. If you look at Luis Guillorme, he had the most success last year hitting the ball to the opposite field. It would be foolish to tell him to abandon that and instead look to pull the ball. That’s where the hard evidence leads you.

      McNeil had outstanding success pulling the ball both last year and in 2019 and 2020, too. While the article ignored the Covid year, McNeil had a 1.125 OPS when he pulled the ball and a .670 OPS when he hit the ball the other way in 2020. That’s where the hard evidence leads you.

      If McNeil wants to kid himself and attribute his success to “not trying to hit homers,” I’d hope the hitting coaches play along. “Hey Jeff, while you’re not trying to hit homers how about pulling the ball and see if you can make the right fielder chase after the ball you hit and pick it up after it hits the wall.”

  • ChrisF

    McNeils spray charts for all batted balls clearly shows he pulled more in 2021, the year he sucked. He should not be a pull-happy uppercut-swinging, reach for the fences robot. He tried. It failed. The spray charts chow it all perfectly clearly.

    I say, Let McNeil be McNeil.

    If you dont like his approach thats fine, or of you think he should be traded for someone with a different approach thats also fine. But he’s figured it out big time, with much lower exit velo’s in 22, and hittin it where they aint.

    • Brian Joura

      We can say things without proof. Or we can look up and see what really happened. McNeil’s year-by-year pull percentage:

      2018 – 35.6
      2019 – 46.3
      2020 – 38.9
      2021 – 35.0
      2022 – 34.0

      https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jeff-mcneil/15362/stats?position=2B/OF

      I don’t believe he should be traded. I think he’s a wonderful asset for the Mets, one who could be even better if he got his pull percentage back into the area it was in 2019-2020.

      • ChrisF

        apologies on the spray chart comment, I had a mistake in making the years compare with the date selection in their tool.

        the difference seems less in pull and more in deliberate hitting approach, including pull and opposite. he made it clear in interviews he was trying to hit for power (typically pull) in 21 and was a failure. This year, and in successful years he hot the ball for hits where ever they landed

  • NYM6986

    Wow Brian, this was def a stat overload with lots to digest but as usual you support your premise with facts. Hit ‘‘em where they ain’t is an old baseball adage. So there is room to pull and room to go the other way if the circumstances present it like advancing a runner or simply setting the table for the batters up next. McNeil should be a staple on this team for years to come based on his hitting ability and fielding flexibility at different positions. It will be interesting to see the differences in batting average and ERA with the restrictions on the shift. How many balls are pulled into the hole only to have another infielder stationed on the outfield grass? How many balls are smashed right over 2nd base only to have another infielder standing there? With all the stupid measures to shorten the length of the games, eliminating the shift will do just the opposite. Then they widen the bases by 3 inches that puts the base stealer 6 inches closer to a safe call taking off for second base. These two changes would have added 20 points to McNeil’s average and maybe Nimmo would not be so hesitant to steal a base. Waiting for the hot stove to heat up so we can see who our team will be for 2023. LGM

    • Brian Joura

      Thanks for the kind words!

      I think there’s fascinating info here that maybe got lost by the readers because I used McNeil as a way to directly incorporate the information. My guess is that intuitively that we all knew that the results were going to be better when hitters pulled the ball. But at the same time, I think most everyone would be shocked by how much of an advantage it is in reality for the overwhelming number of hitters.

  • T.J.

    Brian, the analysis is great. The numbers pretty much back up the obvious regarding pulling. Anyone that has played at any level, which is more or less everyone, knows you can hit it harder and farther by pulling almost all the time. But, there is always a but. It depends on both the pitch and the situation. In general, hitters should be trying to drive the ball, and that is mostly done by pulling. While old folk like me lament the three true outcomes, the players know that this is generally the best game plan…more runs will score by swinging for the fences and trying to elevate, even with two strikes. However, there is still a place in the game for going the other way, or going up with single in mind instead of long ball. I think the best all around hitters in the game still understand, the problem is that there are a lot of guys that just think in one way in every situation. I do wonder if the overall increase in velocity in today’s game has resulted in such a big decrease in reaction time that the modern hitter just doesn’t have the same opportunity to be a situational hitter and/or go the other way as the past players did.

  • Metsense

    Brian, as you pointed out with overwhelming evidence, pulling the ball is a good thing for most hitters. Chris pointed out with a quote that McNeil wanted to “finding the hole”. In 2023 the anti-shift rules in are effect. There will be only two infielders on the right side with their feet on the dirt and no more triangle defense. McNeil should benefit again by still pulling and hitting up the middle , like he has been, because there will be more area to ” finding the hole” on the right side. McNeil should have a monster year in 2023.

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