The 2022 New York Mets were quite good. Historically, the Mets teams have been completely dominant pitching-wise, and hit-or-miss offensively. In 2022, the Mets offense was pretty good. This is critical for 2023, and free agency or call-ups trying to fill roles of players no longer with the team.
The Mets entire starting offensive roster, except Brandon Nimmo in center field, is returning and under contract, including arbitration. Every offensive player, except Nimmo, with a positive WAR is returning. Moreover, the Mets have potential upgrades at the two worst positions, allowing the front office to focus on a center fielder and the rotation. This is not the usual Mets’ off-season status.
The infield will have Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor and a combination of Eduardo Escobar, Luis Guillorme, and Brett Baty. That lineup produced 18 WAR. Critically, there is improvmenet available if Escobar is supplanted by a developed Baty.
The Designated Hitter did get some production from Daniel Vogelbach, and Darin Ruf was abysmal. Both are under contract for 2023. Neither of these players is particularly good. Ruf looks at the complete end of his career, and should likely be off the roster as soon as a suitable replacement can be identified. The reason Vogelbach is not a suitable replacement is his extreme platoon issues. The Mets were fortunate in Vogelbach’s 150 at bats because he has never performed that well for that long. He must be strictly platooned, and should be replaced in the lineup as soon as possible. Even skeptics of Dominic Smith’s likelihood of a bounce back, keeping him on the roster had a higher probability of success than either of these two. This position has plenty of better options on the market, starting with Jose Abreu, but there are bunches.
The Mets second biggest weakness on the field last season is one with an available signed improvement – catcher. Tomas Nido batted in some utterly dismal situations, as Buck Showalter thought he was “due”. He wasn’t. No one ever is. James McCann has reached the age of defensive replacement. The question is can Francisco Alvarez step up at his age (21) and experience. The free agent market does not have any solutions at hand, so Alvarez is the Mets best option to improve, barring some clever trade.
In the outfield, Nimmo was the best player and really was coming into his own. It would nice for the Mets to re-sign him to a three to five year deal. His projections are in line with minimal aging effects, and to basically produce the same 5 WAR as he did in 2022. 4-5 WAR is worth $25-35 million dollars. The market may be able to replicate that production, but it will be some amount of lightning in a bottle, and the Mets do not have anyone to fill these shoes.
Mark Canha and Starling Marte have, for all intents and purposes, aged out of the center field role. They are solid in their roles, and if they stay healthy, will produced significantly more. There is some room to upgrade Canha, but he won’t likely be an issue.
The Mets rotation is definitely headed for trouble. Max Scherzer is going to be solid. Carlos Carrasco was good until he ran out of gas. David Peterson should be able to work as a fourth or fifth starter unless he takes a big step forward. Tylor Megill is a question mark but can fill a role. The Mets lost three of their main starters to free agency in Jacob deGrom, and Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt buyouts. It is possible, the very reason for cutting those last two loose is to create a new rotation, hopefully with a vision. Is it Clayton Kershaw? No, it probably isn’t Kershaw. Perhaps they are getting the band back together and plan to sign deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. The bullpen is anchored with Edwin Diaz, and there are filler parts around him. Middle relief and setup is often luck due to the relatively few innings per pitcher.
Whatever the Mets pitching plan is, it is going to be the determining factor in whether the Mets fans can expect to finish first in the NL East again.
Clearly the Astros read this; they are on the verge of signing Jose Abreu.
Abreu signed with Houston for three years.
There is virtually zero chance the Mets sign Kershaw, whose life is in LA and Texas.I would rank signing Kershaw as maybe 1% on the optimistic side.
From the article:
” Is it Clayton Kershaw? No, it probably isn’t Kershaw. “
Nimmo is the priority. If they don’t sign him then what do you do ? Bellanger is my fall back. He is an above average defensive centerfielder. Other options are not ideal.
The starting rotation Is worrisome. If they spend $45m for deGrom or should they sign Rodon for $30 and Taillon at $15 for the same price and have Peterson as the 5th starter. If they want Peterson as depth, they can spread the $45m amongst three pitchers like Taillon, Walker and Manaea, just for an example.
Will they sign deGrom and Rodon and spend $75m? If that is the budget then sign they can two pitchers with deGrom either/or Rodon.
I prefer deGrom and Rodon and Peterson as their rotation.
I would rather the Mets sign Rodon and Trea Turner than deGrom and Nimmo. Then they can trade McNeil for a starting pitcher and fill in the rest with free agents.
The problem has already started by paying Diaz a ton. Add in deGrom and Nimmo and what do you have for all that money? You have the same team and weaknesses that you had last year minus Bassitt, Walker and some decent relievers.
If the Mets are going to battle the Braves for first next year, they need to make some bold moves to improve the team and having deGrom, Scherzer and an overpaid Kershaw would be asking for big trouble.
Rodon/Turner would be nice but likely cost more than deGrom/Nimmo, and the Mets have other needs as well. Nimmo is going to make a ton given his skills and market. His offense needs to be replaced and I certainly wouldn’t reduce the offense further by dealing McNeil. As noted by Chris, the internal solutions should improve the weak links offensively.
I’m not sure deGrom is going to command the money he expects, given his health over the last two seasons. The next two weeks will be very interesting. Rodon hasn’t been the healthiest guy either, and he is not on Jake’s level, but he may be the better bet for high caliber innings 2023-2025.
Trea Turner played only 45 games in his entire career in 2016 at 23 years of age.
I just checked. Kershaw has already signed with the Dodgers for 2023.
Mike W you hit it on the head. We all want deGrom and Nimmo to be resigned, and that would be awesome. But it’s the same team we had out there last year, minus some pitching. We need to upgrade and get some impact, unless we are sure that Alvarez, Baty and Vientos are substantially better than what they would be replacing. You hope that trio can at least be average in the field, but hit some long balls and when not in the field play DH. A little new blood would get us closer to the finish line.
It was a 101 win season. Who is better than deGrom? In Atlanta he pitched 6 IP 3ER. Against SD he pitched 6 IP 2 ER. They don’t need new blood there. Bassitt is a another story. Bassitt pitched 2.2 IP 4 ER vs Atlanta and 4 IP 3 ER vs SD. They need a #3 SP and Rodon would fit. Nimmo is a priority and the rookies, your new blood, should get a chance and take them closer to the finished line.
Exactly – they won 101 games. The only reason they didn’t win the WS is timing. The talent is there. Any team that has Scherzer/deGrom/Diaz and a good offense has enough to get there.