While everyone’s attention is on what free agents the Mets will sign, a somewhat related topic is how the Mets’ minor league system plays into things.  Here, David Groveman shares his thoughts with me on this question and others as we do an email exchange on a variety of topics around the club’s farm system.  Let’s get right to it.

Brian: As the Mets look to fill out their 2023 pitching staff, where do recent farm graduates Tylor Megill and David Peterson fit into things?  Are they starters or relievers/depth starters, like Trevor Williams was for the club in 2022?  Is there any other player or players from the farm we can put into the pitching basket?  Is it realistic to consider Jose Butto as a guy to potentially give you 5-7 starts next season?  Is there anyone else we should be watching to fill this role?

David: I think a lot depends on who the Mets sign for the starting rotation. I think that both Peterson and Megill are quality starters on non-playoff teams and that, if the Mets manage to sign two of the four available Aces (Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon and Kodai Senga) that they could get away with having one or the other as their fifth starter. I think if the Mets only get one of these Aces and settle for some of the second-string talent (Chris Bassitt or Jameson Taillon for instance) then they’ll want an additional veteran starter to cover the back end of the rotation. Megill and Peterson both belong on the Mets and should be very useful relievers. The issue there is that if Megill and Peterson aren’t stretched out, what happens when injuries occur. In part, the answer is Butto but he is only an innings eater and wouldn’t be the ideal guy for 5-7 starts. I think the Mets recent moves (like Elieser Hernandez) are more likely to get the first look as Williams replacements. The Mets have little else from the minors for starting pitching help though Dominic Hamel and Mike Vasil could have breakout years and prove that wrong.

Personally, I think the bigger questions surround the Mets upper tier position player prospects. Are the Mets ready to let Francisco Alvarez take the helm as a starting catcher? Do Mark Vientos and/or Brett Baty have a place on the team? Can a team looking to win in the short-term devote time to allow their batters to adjust to the big leagues? There are smaller questions to ask too. Such as, is it finally time that Ronny Mauricio be moved into the outfield? Or, will Khalil Lee ever have actual value in the major leagues?

Brian: I hope that somehow Williams makes it back to the Mets but there’s little doubt that’s a longshot.

For years, my biggest complaint has been how the Mets prefer people from outside of the organization rather than giving guys from the farm system a shot.  Other people are bigger Megill fans than me but my preference would be to give him a shot rather than give a multi-year deal to Bassitt with an AAV north of $20 million.  My take is that the Mets absolutely need a top-tier starter and an impact hitter.  For sake of argument, let’s call them deGrom and Brandon Nimmo.  If Steve Cohen is comfortable adding another big salary, let’s bring on Verlander or Rodon or Senga.  Shoot, put Trea Turner in that conversation, too.  But if the budget only calls for two big signings, there needs to be a hitter – preferably a CF/leadoff guy – in that twosome.  Vientos might be tied to Alvarez, meaning there’s little shot the Mets take both of them north to begin the season.  Maybe both Alvarez and Vientos look like they belong in Grapefruit League play, while Darin Ruf looks like toast.  Perhaps that’s the way the Mets justify both of them.  But it seems like a longshot.

As for your hitting questions, there’s virtually no shot of Alvarez being given the starting catcher’s nod to begin the season.  It’s not a lock for me that he’ll even make the Opening Day roster.  He absolutely should be on the roster and there’s a good chance he should be the starter right away.  But it would be shocking to me if that’s the way the Mets proceed.  Baty seems ticketed for Triple-A to start the year, where he’ll be teammates with Mauricio.  My hope is that Mauricio sees significant time in left field, with the idea of grooming him to replace Mark Canha in 2024.  As for Lee, until he solves his strikeout issues, he’s org filler and not a prospect for me.

David: I agree that I’d love to see Williams back but I cannot fault him for wanting a full-time starting position which I also don’t see the Mets giving him.

It seems that you are also less bullish on Met spending than others (something I happen to agree with). I don’t see signing Bassitt for $20 million per is a good move for the Mets, even if Bassitt is worth that money. What I’m wondering is how you see the Met lineup if they were to add both Nimmo and Turner. I would imagine this would create a change for the Jeff McNeil super sub special (giving him a portion of Canha’s starts while also spelling Eduardo Escobar and others).

I’m still praying the Mets give Alvarez starts in the majors at catcher while making him the full-time RHB DH. I hate the idea of Alvarez being in the majors and only seeing limited playing time. If both Baty and Vientos wind up in AAA (with Mauricio) it will be interesting to see how the Mets field them. Baty is better defensively at third and left field but the Mets would be sacrificing trade value if they concede Vientos is a DH only player. Mauricio, in my opinion, needs to be moved to the outfield full time. He has the speed to play in center and the arm strength to play right field but we’ll need to see. With Lee my issue is that even if he manages an OPS in AAA over .800, I can’t believe it translates in the majors.

Brian: If the Mets somehow sign both Nimmo and Turner – odds of that have to be under 1% – then Turner becomes the 2B, and he didn’t seem to like that much in LA, where he played the majority of the time after they acquired him in 2021.  Last year he didn’t play a single game at second base.  But, with neither Nimmo nor Starling Marte being any threats to play 162 games, there’s nothing wrong with having days off built into the plan.  I’d still want McNeil to play as much as he did last year.  So, that means fewer days for everyone else.  But days off are a good thing.

This is a statement more than a question.  But how does Marte not have an injury-prone label like Nimmo?  Since being busted for PEDs in 2017, which partially explains the 77 games played that year, here are his full season games played – 145, 132, 120, 118.  The Mets need to be prepared for Marte to miss a month of the season, making a good fourth outfielder a necessity rather than a luxury.

Let’s wrap this up with a non-player question.  What’s it like for you to be at least as much – if not more – invested in the minor league guys as compared to the major league team?  I don’t follow the minors anywhere as close to the way that you do.  And I get frustrated that people think a good minor league system means you have All-Stars at every single position at both Double-A and Triple-A just waiting to be promoted.  And then when a top prospect gets the call, fans want to declare him a bust if he doesn’t post a .900 OPS in his first 25 PA.  What are your frustrations and what things do you wish the average fan realized about the minor leagues?

David: Sometimes it’s really nice, you’re always looking to the future and even when the major league team collapses you can find solace in the future. Often times, though, it’s very frustrating, particularly when we approach the trade deadline and armchair GMs start wildly guessing at value. Vientos and Baty are perfect examples of the other frustration. I wrote, at length, about what to expect from them when they reached the majors and cautioned that either would likely not immediately perform but a small sample size into either debut they are considered “expendable busts” who we should somehow trade for All Stars. I really just wish people would use this simple rule of thumb: “If you don’t want to trade them, they have value. If you want to trade them, they don’t.” I appreciate getting the chance to talk to you and will close off by saying Patrick Mazeika… just so we keep up with tradition.

8 comments on “On the chances for prospects to crack the MLB roster and other minor league thoughts

  • Metsense

    Peterson earned the 5th spot in the rotation last year. Megill should be taking the place of Williams. Lucchesi, Butto and Hernandez are the depth starters. They need more help in that area.
    Baty and Alvarez should have a spot in the 2023 roster but Vientos I’m not so sure because there is no position for him. Both of you want to move Mauricio to the outfield. Why move him to second base and move McNeil to the outfield to replace the retired Cano it 2024?
    It is frustrating to read the comments that blast the rookies. A rookie should get time to adjust . That is why, when they get promoted, it would be ideal split time with a veteran that’s in their last year of their contract,so as to take the pressure off. Baty and Alvarez would be somewhat doing that.

  • ChrisF

    Fantastic interview. I really enjoy these exchanges that draw on so much info people can share.

    One thing about all this that needs to come out is team trajectory. I believe every decision needs to be framed on the positioning of the team with short and long range goals.

    Cohen said he wanted to at least be in a World Series in 5 years. I find that incongruous with letting kids take the field and use the time to figure it out, like Baty and Alvarez, neither of whom should be in the big leagues with virtually no AAA experience – and the added weight of requiring immediate performance.

    I cannot see putting 90M$ on 2 pitchers alone for the next 2 seasons and then putting people in key spots on the field and at the plate with “take whatever time you need to adjust” attitude. Add the 20M$ for Diaz and those three players alone will be paid more than some whole teams. How can you marry that with anything but urgency and proven talent – and the associated costs that will come with? Cohen will not throw down that much on aging aces to have a junior academy learn baseball in Queens.

    Im all for putting the youth in and giving them the time to build their credentials. One of the biggest issues the team has is a total lack of balance financially, player age, and position balance. We get to the places we are with “cannot rebuild” shit attitude in NY, leaving the Mets in perpetual “rebuilding for it” mode. Ideally a team should be able to promote a couple players and surround them productive veteran talent so they can grow personally and professionally without needing to be the superstar out of the gate.

    • Brian Joura

      The Mets have a clear expectation to make the playoffs and have a team with a bunch of veterans (and manager) who have been there, done that. I think you put the best team out there without worrying about a certain percentage of veterans and/or a certain percentage of young guys.

      Looking strictly at hitters, the Mets have Alonso, McNeil, Escobar, Lindor, Canha, Marte and Vogelbach as veterans. Alonso has the least number of years of experience in that crew with four full years under his belt. I refuse to believe that with seven veterans with at least four years of MLB service that the team will fall apart if Alvarez is going to get 400 PA and Vientos is going to get 200. In my opinion, the team will be better giving playing time to those two rookies rather than McCann and Ruf.

      We need to get away from this unfounded fear that rookies are destined to fail and unfounded belief that all veterans are great. You’d think watching McCann for 603 PA as a Met would be all the proof you’d need that the latter isn’t true.

      • ChrisF

        Well I personally dont believe all rookies fail and all vets are winners. I just dont believe you can throw someone from AA in the big leagues with zero track record regardless prospect position status and *expect* them to perform. I personally think McCann, Ruf and Vogelback were terrible bottom of the barrel “vet” pick ups. The Mets could possibly have gone for A level talent at C, and signed Realmuto but cheaped it out. The Mets should be all in on Soto at 450M$ he’s young and proven.

        I just think you cannot expect rookies, espcially someone in the very early 20s to magically perform like Harris II did. By and large, thats anomalous.

        I think there is also the damage that occurs of someone who is a blue chipper comes up and does need time to adjust and then gets on the shuttle routine. Ask Jared Kelenick, whom we all could not wait to claim as the best OF since Willie Mays, but has struggled mightily as a pro driving between Tacoma and Seattle all the time.

        • Brian Joura

          Nice to know you’re an equal-opportunity hater.

          The Mets already have a big payroll and they’re going to have to add to that to fill in holes in their pitching staff. The question is if you think Cohen will add to the roster with multiple free agent hitters, keep the status quo at C and RH DH or give opportunities to top prospects who’ve already played and succeeded in the high minors.

          To me, it’s pretty clear that the best option is to use Alvarez over McCann. I also believe, with less conviction, that it’s better to use Vientos than Ruf. And I’m willing to give those two rookies at least as many opportunities to show their stuff as J.D. Davis got last year.

        • Metsense

          In May 25, 1951, just turned 20 year old Wllie Mays debuted and went 1 for 21 for the month and only 35 games in AAA – since you mention him.

  • Footballhead

    Unless they stink up the joint in spring training, Alvarez & Vientos should start the season with the Mets. Baty; I think, will really have to shine to also be added to the roster….unless Escobar really starts out poorly in Florida. I believe Brian has the jist of it regarding how much catching Alvarez will be doing. So if things turn out well, our (future) catching and DH problems of last season will be covered internally; and at a minimum cost.

    Getting Nimmo back and putting $$$ for a stronger bullpen and SP* should be the focus.

    *I’d rather not give deGrom $40m. I’d opt for getting (at least) two strong (enough) SP for that dough…….Bassitt & Walker/Rodon.

  • MikeW

    This is a great article. The Mets have a lot of holes. They will not fill all of them with free agents. They have to make some trades. I feel that they need to get younger on the mound.

    Catcher is a big weakness and we have the number one prospect in the majors on Alvarez. It’s time to give the kid his shot. He also could fill in nicely as a DH.

    To get something good in a trade, you need to give up something. That means that Mauricio and Vientos could go. If I could keep one it would be Mauricio. Vientos only value is hitting. That also means that maybe one of our starters like McNeil gets dealt.

    My mantra is Trea Turner, Rodon and Senga. I do not want to see Turner end up in Philly and burning the Mets for the next eight years.

    Maybe Peterson and Megill battle it out for the fifth spot in the rotation. Maybe one of them gets traded.

    I would be shocked to see the Mets not make a trade or two I’m the winter meetings.

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