Why the historically pitching-rich Mets have a store-bought rotation and few impact pitchers in the high minors

The Mets used 11 different starters in 2022, with eight of those pitchers making at least nine starts. Those eight combined for 159 starts. Five of those eight pitchers were imports who came from outside of the organization. It’s a trend that doesn’t figure to change this year and might even get worse, depending upon where Jacob deGrom signs.

Generally, we think of the Mets as an organization that is more successful cranking out pitchers rather than hitters. But the 2022 offense featured three of the top four hitters with the most PA being homegrown players, with five of the top nine coming up through the farm system. On the pitching side, the top four guys in starts were all imports. Of the 162 starts last year, only 41 were from guys that came up in the system.

It’s not because the Mets have been neglecting pitching in recent drafts. It takes a few years to progress from the minor to the majors so let’s look at the five drafts leading up to the 2019 season. Here’s where the Mets took pitching in those drafts:

2014 – 23 of their 39 picks were pitchers. They did not pick one until the fifth round but nine of their first 16 picks were pitchers. Only two players from this draft have made the majors – wow! – with one of them being top pick Michael Conforto. The other was pitcher Brad Wieck, who went to the Padres in the Alex Torres deal.

2015 – 28 of their 39 picks were pitchers. Of their top 21 picks, 16 were pitchers. Five pitchers have made the majors but four of them didn’t make a dent. The exception was a late-round pick who didn’t sign, opting to go to college instead. Three years later, Shane McClanahan was a first-round pick.

2016 – This year it was 22 of 41 picks who were pitchers, including the team’s top two selections in Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay, both who were sent out of town by Brodie Van Wagenen. To date, neither has really made much of an impact in the majors. This draft also featured Colin Holderman, also dealt. And another late-round pick who didn’t sign, went to college and became a first-rounder three years later in George Kirby.

2017 – There were 27 pitchers selected out of 40 this season, including top pick David Peterson. Seven of the first 10 picks were spent on pitching. Only two guys have made the majors from this draft, although a few more could make it before all is said and done. Peterson has a chance to have the most starts in 2023 of any homegrown player.

2018 – Half of the Mets’ 40 selections this year were pitchers, including second-rounder Simeon Woods Richardson, who was sent along with Kay in the deal to get Marcus Stroman. This was Tylor Megill’s draft class, along with Bryce Montes de Oca. Ryley Gilliam and Brian Metoyer are potential bullpen arms, too.

These are the five years where pitchers should be in the majors if they’re going to be productive members of your rotation. From this time period, there were five guys with a shot to be starters – Megill and Peterson, who are still here, and Dunn, Kay & Woods Richardson, who were all dealt, perhaps at the peak of their value.

One thing to keep in mind is that at the start of this period, the Mets were flush with pitching at the high minors and in the majors. It made sense not to take a pitcher in the first few picks in 2014. And in 2015, the Mets lost their top pick to sign Michael Cuddyer. They looked to make up for this in the next two drafts, by taking polished college pitchers with their first pick in both years.

We’ve heard so much about the Mets not having MLB-ready pitching in the high minors. What happened in the next few drafts?

2019 – Once again, exactly half of their 40 picks were pitchers. This was the draft where the Mets picked a lot of college seniors who would sign cheap deals so they could go overslot to get pitchers Josh Wolf and Matt Allan. Wolf went in the deal for Francisco Lindor while Allan has been hurt most of the time since he was drafted.

2020 – Because of the pandemic, this year’s draft was limited to five rounds. The Mets had six selections in this draft. With their second pick, they drafted J.T. Ginn, who went in the Chris Bassitt deal. With their final pick, they took Eric Orze, who has a chance to make it as a reliever.

2021 – With the draft down to 20 rounds, the Mets took pitchers with 12 of their 20 selections. It will be forever remembered as the draft where they took Kumar Rocker and then didn’t even give him a contract offer due to injury concerns. The next two picks were also pitchers, ones who are now among their top prospects. In the second round, they took Calvin Ziegler and in the third round, it was Dominic Hamel. The draft also saw the club take Mike Vasil and Keyshawn Askew and both hurlers have some buzz. Also selected were Carson Seymour and Nick Zwack, who both went to San Francisco in the Darin Ruf deal.

2022 – The Mets took pitchers with 13 of their 22 picks in this most-recent draft. Second-round pick Blade Tidwell struck out 11 batters in 9.1 IP and had a 1.93 ERA in his pro debut last year. Third-round pick Brandon Sproat did not sign and returned to the University of Florida.

In a different world, the Mets would have Wolf, Allan, Ginn and Rocker among their top pitching prospects. But Wolf and Ginn were traded, Allan has been hurt and they opted not to sign Rocker. It’s no wonder there are so few pitching prospects for the Mets in the high minors.

Unwittingly, the Mets may have stumbled on a perfectly sound philosophy. That is, spend high picks on pitchers and then trade them for established MLB players before they reach the majors. This has been the M.O. that has seen Dunn, Kay, Woods Richardson, Wolf and Ginn being sent (often times with others) to get Edwin Diaz, Stroman, Lindor and Bassitt. That’s some major star power, essentially produced by the draft.

If you grew up watching Seaver, Koosman and Matlack – or even if you cut your teeth on deGrom, Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard and Matz – you saw guys who came up in the farm system (even if not originally drafted/signed by the club) and gave the Mets homegrown stars. But last year’s 101-win team was led by Scherzer, Bassitt, Walker and Carrasco, all guys who were drafted and developed elsewhere, acquired by the Mets as established players, either thru trade or free agency.

It’s not better or worse than the homegrown model – just different. Sure, it’s more fun if you’ve followed guys since they were drafted. But 101 wins is so much more fun than following homegrown guys, only to go 75-87. Maybe you can question the ability to continually flip prospects for stars. But if nothing else, Steve Cohen’s checkbook should make acquiring pitchers from other teams a sustainable business model.