The Mets’ starting rotation was thin heading into the offseason, and after the departure of Jacob deGrom to Texas, the pitching is even more of a problem. Many fans think the solution is to try and sign either, or possibly both, Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon. Here is a different approach, a contrarian approach so to speak. Specifically to sign a lesser pitcher, then make a big splash at the 2023 trade deadline.
Why not shoot for the big two? Verlander was great in 2022, and has been for just about his entire career. However he will cost a fortune, and he turns 40 in 2023. Father Time is not on his side, he may well fall apart next season much as Steve Carlton did when he hit his 40s. Rodon has been very good the past two years, but prior to that he was ineffective and plagued with shoulder and elbow woes resulting in Tommy John surgery. In addition he pitched for the Giants last year who are in need of pitching themselves and could have the inside track to retaining him.
Max Scherzer will be the ace of the staff, and an up-and-down Carlos Carrasco is signed through next year. Tylor Megill and David Peterson both were in the starting rotation at times, and both had their moments. Megill’s stuff looked great at the beginning of the year, but then an injury struck. Both might benefit by getting regular rotation starts. Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker were both starters for the Mets last year, and both are free agents. I would lean to signing one of them, probably Walker who is younger.
I would look toward signing an affordable starter, Andrew Heaney of the Dodgers would fit the bill. He turns 32 next year, and is coming off a year in which he made 14 starts and had a 3.10 ERA and held opposing batters to a .214 BA. His previous seasons were mediocre at best, but it appears the Dodger coaching staff made some changes to his approach and unlocked some good production. The Dodgers are loaded with pitchers and might not need to retain him.
Probably another pitcher would be needed, perhaps a Trevor Williams type who can start or pitch long relief, or maybe Williams himself could be signed. Joey Lucchesi, coming off 2021 Tommy John surgery, might be in the mix at some point as well.
This rotation would be decent, but certainly not dominant, at least to start the season. However, there should be opportunities to pounce on an excellent or even elite pitcher as the trading deadline is approached in July. Specifically there are some great pitchers who are only signed through 2023 and, if their teams fall out out of contention, could be available
On who would stand out would be Shohei Ohtani of the Angels. Maybe the Angels will be contenders in 2023, but it has been years since they were really in the hunt. It’s quite possible the ownership could trade him at the deadline for an elite prospect/prospects rather than lose him in the offseason.
Ohtani pitched to 15-9 record with a losing team in 2022, with an ERA of 2.33 and a WHIP of 1.012. He wil turn 29 next year, and he provides great value at DH as well with a 2022 line of .273/.356/.519 with 34 homers.
Of course, even for half a season, Ohtani would not come cheap. But if he could be acquired, the Mets would have him for the most important part of the year. Don’t forget the Braves have won the last two NL East titles, and both years it was the stretch run that did it, when the team was stronger than it was at the beginning of the year. Assuming the Ohtani has a great half-season with the Mets, it would be a no-brainer for the richest owner in baseball to lock him up with a long term extension.
What kind of prospect would be needed to grab Ohtani? The Angels look weak at catcher, last year Max Stassi played 102 games and provided a .180/.267/.303 slash line, and that is unacceptable production. The Mets just happen to have one of the highest ranked prospects in baseball in catcher Francisco Alvarez.
The Mets do have a fine defensive catcher in Tomas Nido, and their first draft pick last year, Kevin Parada, is a catcher who shined in the low minors last season and might be ready for the big leagues in a few years. Admittedly, it would be hard to part with Alvarez or comparable players. On the other hand, It sure would make for a potentially riveting stretch drive next year.
Interesting article John, and I certainly understand it. I though what you say really nails the the imbalance of the team to find itself in the present position: a huge number of FAs, an outward desire to get to and win a WS, and a reality that other teams in our division are as good or better than us. We seem trapped in the old biblical “robbing Peter to pay Paul” problem that comes with imbalance (player, age, desire, financial – whatever).
Sure, trade for Ohtani, and the starting point will be Alvarez. You can expect 2 other of the top 5 or actual MLB talent (say McNeil) and more. It’ll be a clean out that hurts for a looong time, which is exactly the posture that ownership does not want. However, wait for Ohtani FA and then you face the 400M$+ contract thats coming, and a violation of the “300M$ should buy you a pretty good team” nonsense. Which of those can you legit choose between?
Thanks for directing the light more clearly on this situation.
I want to see Judge and Ohtani as Mets. It aint my money!
I’m not a “never trade prospects guy.” But if I was calling the shots, I wouldn’t trade Alvarez. It was great to have Mike Piazza for part of his age 29 thru age 36 seasons. It will be even better to have Alvarez for all of the years of his prime.
You may think it’s crazy to compare a rookie to Piazza. And in a way, it is. But this is the type of upside we’re talking about with Alvarez as a hitter. For the Dodgers, Piazza had OPS+ marks of 172-166-185 from 1995-1997.
Since 1995, there have been 12 seasons by a catcher with at least 300 PA and an OPS+ of 150 or more. Piazza has five of them. Nobody else has more than one.
Maybe Alvarez never reaches a 150 mark in his career. But even if he tops out in the 130s, that’s non-20212 Buster Posey. That’s a guy you keep, not one you throw in a package with others to get someone, regardless of who that someone is.
I love the confidence you have for Alvarez. I dont place much on A AA numbers no matter what – good or bad. Its not big league baseball. Anyway, I’ll feel a lot better if Alvarez comes up and say places top 5 RoY. Until then, he’s a great prospect and nothing more to me. And Ill be delighted to say you and David were right all along. But if you want to trade for Ohtani (not my personal preference), that’ll for sure be the cost of business.
I’d also say that spending on Verlander like this is the exact smart way for Cohen, with the hope development can drop the OD payroll eventually. For now is its a trash can fire of 1000$ bills
There are a lot of people who would be wrong if Alvarez doesn’t blossom into a great player.
I am predictably against trading Alvarez, particularly for a rental of Ohtani. I think Ohtani is a singular player and would be great for the Mets but that his contract is expiring too soon to make trading Alvarez.
Also, as much as I’ve become a big fan of Kevin Parada, he’s older than Alvarez and hasn’t played above Low-A. Can we not get ahead of ourselves and prematurely sell the farm?