Neither of my parents were sports fans but they were never really against me either playing or watching the games. As long as I didn’t ask them for money, they were more or less ok with it. But when Tom Seaver had his contract demands leaked, that was a big moment. Mom sat me down and explained that the amount of money Seaver was asking for would be enough for my parents to live on for the rest of their lives.
By that time, the rules of the game in my house were understood. If my parents, who were both children of the depression, spoke about money – you didn’t dare say anything back to them. It’s doubtful that I would have had the capability to have a discussion but in hindsight, it’s too bad my response wasn’t silence but instead about the ability of labor to reap the rewards of their talent, rather than management. My guess is that’s an angle they didn’t consider but one they would have been receptive to hearing.
Perhaps because of that moment, the money issue in sports never really bothered me. Yes, for sure, the money made all the way around is insane. You can choose to focus on that and let that eat you up inside. Or you can concentrate on what drew you to the games in the first place. For me, it’s all about the competition. And that can be the players in the field or the competition among front offices to build the best teams they can, given their restrictions.
For many years, a common complaint was that the Wilpon/Katz Mets didn’t run a payroll commensurate with being a big-market club. That didn’t offend me to the degree that it did others. The Mets’ ownership group was hit hard by the Bernie Madoff fallout. They didn’t have a high payroll because they were being cheap; they had the payroll they did because for millionaires, they were basically broke.
If you know the owners of your favorite team are more or less broke, why bitch and moan about them not spending more? It made more sense to question the wisdom of how they spent their money – like the year when all of their available payroll went to the bullpen – rather than how much or how little they spent.
For most people and most businesses – you have a budget and you try to do the best you can while living within your means. My dad used to talk about people with “champagne tastes on a beer salary,” which always amused me since he didn’t drink. Those of us on a budget have to learn to live with PBR and not get jealous of those sipping Dom Perignon.
Which brings us to the Steve Cohen Mets.
As you know, Cohen is one of the wealthiest men on the planet and certainly the richest owner in MLB. And the Mets this offseason are spending money like no team has ever done before. It’s not like they’re making bad deals – well, maybe the reliever ones don’t make pure economic sense – it’s just that they’re making a ton of expensive deals. And they’re likely not done yet adding to the team.
Edwin Diaz – 5/$102 million – wow!
Carlos Carrasco – 1/$14 million – sure!
Justin Verlander – 2/$86 with a third-year vesting option – great!
Jose Quintana – 2/$26 million – all right!
Brandon Nimmo – 8/$162 million – yes!
David Robertson – 1/$10 – why not!
And no one will be surprised if they add another SP and RP at decent salaries, too. Even before those potential additions, the Mets’ payroll stands at $322 million. For a point of reference, the 2012-2014 Mets had Opening Day payrolls under $100 million, with the latter two seasons having end-of-year 40-man payrolls under $100 million, too.
Player salaries are more expensive than they were a decade ago. Yet, it’s still difficult to wrap my head around this new $300 million reality. But it’s a whole lot more fun as a fan when money is seemingly no object for the team’s owner. Hey bartender – Dom Perignon for everyone!
The Mets are in this position because they had so many free agents last year, with not enough internal options to replace them. Of course, everyone talks about building up the farm system. But that’s sort of a double-edged sword. Not only do you have to have prospects – you have to, you know, give them the opportunity. It’s possible neither Tylor Megill nor David Peterson will be in the Opening Day rotation and the Mets don’t seem eager to give Francisco Alvarez a starting job, either.
It used to infuriate me when the Mets of the early 2010s – teams going nowhere – would go dumpster diving for other team’s reclamation projects, rather than giving shots to guys from their own farm system. Will they get to the point where they use their minor league guys rather than paying the going rates for the Carrascos and Quintanas of the world?
To be clear, the Carrasco and Quintana contracts look like solid deals. It’s certainly better to have them than the Shaun Marcum–Daisuke Matsuzaka–Aaron Harang additions from yesteryear. Still, at some point it will be great to see the Mets give shots to guys who don’t come with 8-digit contracts.
Baseball America has this thing where they project future lineups based on who’s currently on the major league team, combined with who they have in the farm system, with an emphasis on the latter whenever possible. On November 28 of this year, they projected the 2026 lineup and came up with this:
PROJECTED 2026 LINEUP
Catcher: Francisco Alvarez (24)
First Base: Pete Alonso (31)
Second Base: Jett Williams (22)
Third Base: Mark Vientos (26)
Shortstop: Francisco Lindor (32)
Left Field: Brett Baty (26)
Center Field: Alex Ramirez (23)
Right Field: Ronny Mauricio (25)
Designated Hitter: Kevin Parada (24)
No. 1 Starter: Tylor Megill (30)
No. 2 Starter: David Peterson (30)
No. 3 Starter: Blade Tidwell (25)
No. 4 Starter: Calvin Ziegler (23)
No. 5 Starter: Matt Allan (25)
Closer: Edwin Diaz (32)
Obviously, Brandon Nimmo will be on this projected roster now. But will the Mets ever get to a point where 14 of their top 16 guys come from the farm system? Right now, the best guess is that the 2023 Mets will have three homegrown players in their top 16 – Alonso, Nimmo and Jeff McNeil. Might be as high as five if Alvarez and Megill/Peterson crack the list.
No team – said without actually checking – has 14 of their top 16 players as farm system graduates. But what’s a good number for the Mets to achieve in the future? Six seems too low, while 12 seems too high, so let’s split the difference and go with nine. In 2026, can they do Alvarez, Alonso, McNeil/Williams, Baty, Ramirez, Nimmo, Mauricio and two pitchers?
With Diaz, Lindor and Nimmo already with major salaries and Alonso no doubt with one by then – can the others be productive enough to get the payroll back down under $300 million? It will help if they’re paying their top two pitchers under $86 million and not spending an additional $20 million for a guy not even on the roster, like they are currently.
Hey, winning 101 games last year was great fun, regardless of the makeup of the roster. And it’s wonderful news that the Mets are trying to match or better that win total for 2023. Yet, my hope is that they begin to trust some of their own guys to participate in the quest for 110 wins. My opinion is that Alvarez is ready right now. And that Baty and Mauricio will be in 2024. Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha were good signings last year. But the Mets need to give shots to their farm products, rather than re-signing those two or importing someone from outside the organization.
In the process, maybe the payroll can go down. See, I’m not against ownership making money.
The reason for the crazy OD Payroll is simply because the Mets under Alderson and Wilpon failed to to keep a balanced team of young/old cheap/expensive or what ever to end up with a huge lot of FA players. The ideal situation is to bleed in young talent to let them establish without needing to be key elements on the field, while literally learning the game.
The situation has put Cohen in a difficult position. He wants to win a WS as owner, and sooner rather than later. He could easily have gone the way of the Reds or Pirates I suppose and just brought in a bunch of Syracuse players, but to what end?
Any ball club has interrelated 3 objectives: make money for owners (its inevitable), make the fans happy, and win a WS. Teams should be constructed however to make those occur.
Turning to reality, who cares what the team spends on payroll? Its not our money per se. The Aldersonian bringing in depleted ageing vets like Adrian Gonzalez was shockingly poor judgement. But The Dodgers signing Freddy Freeman was brilliant. We have succumb so much to the Wilpon infection of: cant rebuild, “must win”, empty farm for so-so trades, cant afford to win that our collective view is wildly jaded.
Cohen and Eppler have made it clear they are *not* going to sell out the blue chip farm. That much is perfectly clear. Whether these player get promoted or traded we shall know, but there so far has been no panic trading. Clearly Baty, Alvarez, Mauricio are going to play in this league – when the time is right. I dont see finances as a driver of that with an underlying desire to win a WS. for now we are really seeing careful use of long contracts. Im much happier about Nimmo than Lindor given it was clear Giminez was going to be a monster. Id much rather have Giminez at SS and Judge in RF for example. But we are seeing careful use of 2-3 year deals that are smart, and will allow the youngin’s to gracefully enter the team. We also need to get used to the notion that FAs are getting more expensive and my guess is we will get to a 500M$ OD Payroll for some team by 2025.
Imagine what things will look like with Ohtani as a Met.
FWIW, the Mets did field an all home grown team not too long ago. On 26 April 2010, the team started all homers against the Marlins. In the end, it was not a good team.
I know you never miss a shot to blame Alderson for … anything.
But the Mets were set up with a good payroll structure that Van Wagenen ruined with the Cano deal and the early extension for deGrom. And look at the trades Van Wagenen did sending out prospects for veterans. For every win like J.D. Davis there were numerous giveaways and roster mismanagement issues. And Van Wagenen had much bigger payrolls than Alderson did.
I think there’s a big difference in a homegrown lineup that includes high-price international free agents like Alvarez and Mauricio and first-round picks like Nimmo, Baty, Parada and Williams and what the Mets had in 2010. BTW, the Mets did not play on April 26 that year. The day before the lineup had Luis Castillo, Jeff Francouer and Henry Blanco. The day after had Castillo, Gary Matthews Jr. and Rod Barajas.
The all-homegrown lineup was in 2012
Nieuwenhuis – 3rd-round pick
Tejada – IFA
Murphy – 13th-round pick
Wright – Supplemental first-round pick
Duda – 7th-round pick
Davis – 1st-round pick
Thole – 13th-rund pick
Valdespin – IFA
Niese – 7th-round pick
Tejada and Valdespin both signed as IFA in the 2007 class. The big guy that year was Wilmer Flores. If memory serves, Jeurys Familia, Jefry Marte and Cesar Puello were all considered better prospects at the time.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/full-list-of-2007-international-signings/
The comps to the six guys I listed in the previous reply are Wright and Davis. Our take on the 2012 homegrown lineup would be a lot different if there were 3X as many Wrights & Davises as there were.
yes, 2012. typo
As a fan, I can’t yet get a full sense about how I feel about an owner who is going to dramatically outspend the competition to win. The concept is just too foreign to me. Certainly I’m happy that they quickly replaced deGrom with a pretty good year comp, a move that I think made more sense financially as well. I’m very happy that they retained Nimmo, who is a catalyst, a quality player, and homegrown guy. Ditto for Diaz, even if the money is nuts. He is a more rare breed – an imported guy who started out very poorly an heard it from the fans, who turned it around in NYC, dominated, won over the fans, and wanted to stay.
Certainly the plan is to integrate the low cost controllable kids into the roster, unless Cohen plans on spending twice as much as the next highest payroll team. But we also see signs of commitment on that side. Most groaned when they came back with mediocrity at the trade deadline last year. Despite a big overpay for Ruf, they remained disciplined and didn’t deal top talent. They now have quite a bit of talent poised to assume roles over the next 2-3 years. Ultimately, these guys need to be good and a few great for the model to work, but they do have some critical mass, which increases the odds. And, while Cohen is spending at the collective rate of a million drunken sailors, that spending is concentrated over the next two seasons, so there is time to reset. While this offseason was brutal with the large group of free agents, the really on Alonso and McNeil will require decisions by 2025, and there are internal candidates that evolve into replacements should those guys get too expensive.
Cohen has a George Steinbrenner dimension to him, but there are signs of cohesion and forward thinking as well.
I agree that the Mets need a productive farm system — and cheap, *productive* ML players — and that it will be the key for sustained success, quality trades, and a lower payroll moving forward.
Alderson was awful and it can now only be seen as a lost decade. The farm system just never got very good, even though that was his #1 mission. He was old and tired and out of touch. But not incompetent. He was uninspired and mediocre. Look at the guys he hired. My god.
Today the farm system is still not very good. We don’t even risk losing a guy in a Rule 5 Pick. We can scarcely draft and develop a serviceable reliever or a 5th outfielder. But hopefully it will get better. There are reasons to hope — but none of them have anything to do with the revered “In Sandy We Trust.”
I think Cohen & Eppler realized that the only way for the Mets to compete in 2022 and 2023 and 2024 was to spend big. Very big. The goal, I think, is to bring that back down to earth in 2025 with, ta-da, some productive young players sprinkled throughout the roster.
Hopefully Alvarez and maybe Baty will represent the beginning of that.
I personally think Brodie was far superior than Alderson, but he really only had a season and a half. The great 2019 and the aborted 60-game thing that was 2020.
Another great article by Brian. You should write a book. The Life and Times of a New York Mets fan. The payroll is a bit scary. Over time, need to adopt the Braves team building strategy in locking up great young players early at a home team discount.
It’s great that we have Alvarez, Baty and Mauricio on the horizon. I’m with you. Let’s have Alvarez play now. We can dump McCann and save a few million dollars. I agree with playing the young players when Escobar and Canha leave.
What worries me is the pitching. What do we do in two years when Scherzer and Verlander are done? That’s why I hope we get Senga now and yes, after next season Ohtani will cost a ton, but he is such a great player that he fills two needs.
I hope the Mets start drafting a bunch of young pitchers with the hope that a few pan out.
Winning teams need a mix of free agents and their own home grown players.
Thanks for the kind words!
It will be curious to see if Scherzer has a good year in 2023, if he decides to opt out. Potentially, we could replace Scherzer with Ohtani if that happens.
Cohen is very rich. He bought the Mets for his enjoyment. He said he has a job that he makes his money at. He pays Scherzer 0.3% of his wealth every year. He can afford the Mets. It is his passion …enjoyment… relaxation and hobby. I am glad he shares it with with.
A question arising from Brian’s article is who to bring up and when. Without assuming trades and trying to accommodate all our best-hitting prospects, what do you all think of these suggestions:
2023: Bring up Alvarez to catch and some DH and Vientos to do most of the DHing and mid-season bring up Baty to take over 3B (since Escobar’s contract is expiring.) Turn Mauricio into an outfielder to see if there is a place for him in the future since Canha’s contract is expiring.)
2024: Bring up Mauricio to take over left field (if he can do it). Turn Parada into an outfielder to see if there’s a place for him in the future.
2025: With Marte’s contract expiring, bring up Parada mid-season to play left and move Mauricio to right assuming that Mauricio is faster than Parada.
2026: If Ramirez continues to develop as expected, he will need to be in the outfield mix, but that’s a long way off.
Vientos might be a possibility to be a part-time DH but there’s no way he’s going to get the majority of time at the position. Vogelbach had a 139 OPS+ last year and it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t get the majority of playing time there to start the season. My preference would be a Vogelbach/Alvarez platoon at DH, with Alvarez also getting plenty of starts at catcher.
I don’t see why you force Parada to change positions this year or next. It’s still a possibility (however remote) he plays C for the Mets, if Alvarez can’t hack it defensively. Plus, he’ll have more trade value as a C.
Before responding more particularly would you explain to me why Baseball Reference lists 2 different OPS+ for Vogelbach? In the “Summary” at the top of the page his OPS+ is 125, but down in “Standard Batting” it’s 139.
The Summary lists his season-long numbers, with his output with the Mets and Pirates combined. His numbers with the Mets were superior because they used him almost exclusively versus RHP, while the Pirates allowed him to face lefties. Last year, Vogelbach had a .139/.262/.153 mark against LHP.
Thanks, Brian.
Much like the BA article about 2026, I was trying to figure out where and when our top prospects might fit over the next three years, as I wrote: “Without assuming trades and trying to accommodate all our best-hitting prospects, what do you all think of these suggestions.” I agree that switching Parada would be a mistake, but if he wasn’t going to be our catcher, I thought maybe he could man left field.
I don’t think it would hurt to have two all star catchers who could share catching and DH duties.
It’s funny, we are assuming that every player we bring up is going to be solid.