It’s next to impossible to describe what’s needed to succeed in the playoffs. You might believe that you want to have the most-talented team. You might say you want to be playing your best ball at the end of the regular season. You might say that you want a favorable matchup. Well, the Dodgers had all of those things in 2022, yet were bounced in the first round. It’s been said a million times, although there’s people who still refuse to believe it. The playoffs are a crapshoot and there’s no guarantee the best team makes it to the World Series, much less wins it.
So, how do the Mets go about fulfilling Steve Cohen’s wish to win a World Series within five years?
The only way to do that is with a chip and a chair. You have to make the playoffs and then play well at the right time. The Braves, Dodgers and Mets each won over 100 games last year, yet were bounced in their first playoff series. As fans, we may never see anything like that again. As invested fans, it makes predicting postseason success an absolute nightmare.
The Mets were not dominant in September but the hope was that with their aces, they would be in good shape in a short series. But then Max Scherzer gave up 4 HR in 4.2 IP and Chris Bassitt put the club in an immediate hole and only pitched four innings.
Would the Mets have benefitted from some NBA-type of load management for their veteran starters? It’s an interesting idea to consider and one that should have some relevance in 2023, too, as the rotation will be even older next year. There’s a story on SNY about Brooklyn’s NBA team, with the headline saying, “Nets looking for chances to rest Kevin Durant: ‘Minutes are adding up.’”
Durant is in his age-34 season. And while NBA age isn’t a direct match for MLB age, Justin Verlander will be in his age-40 season, Scherzer will be in his age-38 season, Carlos Carrasco will be in his age-36 season and newly-acquired Jose Quintana will play next year at age 34.
During the regular season last year, Durant averaged 29.9 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game. In his final game of the playoffs, he recorded 39 points, 7 rebounds and 9 assists. Contrast that with Scherzer, who in his final playoff game allowed 7 ER in 4.2 IP, and Verlander, who allowed 6 ER in 10 IP in his two World Series starts.
It’s certainly possible that the end of the season results for the two veteran pitchers were small-sample flukes, no different that a great Dodgers team losing to a Padres squad that they owned all year. It’s also possible those vets were running on fumes.
Last year, the Mets were trying to win the NL East in a tight race with the Braves. The thought was that the extra rest for not having to play in the Wild Card round would be worth the effort to win the division. Ultimately, the extra rest didn’t help the Braves and Dodgers.
There’s no easy answer how to build load management into the equation for starting pitchers. Shoot, Scherzer missed a bunch of time in the middle of the year and also was sidelined for about two weeks in early September. He had a 2.26 ERA before hitting the IL for the first time last year and a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts after being activated and before landing on the IL for the second time. After two strong games upon his second activation, Scherzer got blown up in his last start of the regular season (5.2 IP, 4 ER) and then again in the playoffs.
Should you go with a six-man rotation or should you skip starts? Is rest built in for the entire season or is it saved for late-August and September? The answer’s not obvious to me. But if the Mets do decide to do some sort of load management, hopefully it’s done with full input from each pitcher affected.
Perhaps the right thing to do is to go into the season with the plan of the veteran pitchers taking the ball every five days as long as they’re healthy. But if coaches notice any signs of fatigue – especially later in the season – they look to give that pitcher some down time. Right now, the Mets have eight players likely to accumulate starts during the year. And few will be surprised if they add a ninth. With that type of depth, the club should be able to give their primary starters days off as needed.
It was great fun to win 101 games last year. But there were two NL teams that didn’t reach 90 wins yet still made the playoffs. And the senior circuit’s World Series representative was one of those clubs. Right now, some people are fretting that the 2023 Mets will not be as good as the 2022 club. That may or may not be true. But it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the club is worse during the season but in better position once the playoffs begin.
While the playoffs are a crapshoot, few would argue the 2022 Mets were in great shape as the playoffs began. Their early exit was the least-surprising one of the three 100-win NL teams. The question becomes: What did the Mets learn to help increase their playoff odds in 2023 and beyond?
It would be wonderful if the Mets’ five primary starters were all in their 20s, as was the case with the 1986 team, with Bob Ojeda being the senior member at age 28. But the reality is that four (possibly five) starters for the 2023 Mets will be on the wrong side of 30. It’s very possible that the Mets will have to play the long game – risk losing some games during the regular season thru load management to make the squad better in October.
The brass will have to do everything within their power to give the team its best shot to advance. And maybe from there, lady luck will shine on the Mets and make Cohen’s World Series desire a reality.