There have been so many big deals involving the Mets, both through new additions to the team and re-signing some of their free agents, that it’s hard to tell if they’re done. It feels like they should be done, except for maybe a late-inning, non-closer bullpen guy. But are they done? Would you be willing to say there’s not a big trade or a free agent signing coming down the pike? Would you be shocked if they traded for Bryan Reynolds or signed Michael Conforto or Adam Ottavino? It just that no big move would seem shocking given the offseason to date.
But for the sake of argument, let’s say that the Mets are virtually done. Here’s the team, making a few guesses:
SP – Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Quintana, Carrasco
RP – Diaz, Robertson, Raley, Smith, Lucchesi, Megill, Greene, Hunter
C – Alvarez, McCann, Nido
INF – Alonso, McNeil, Escobar, Lindor, Guillorme
OF – Canha, Nimmo, Marte
DH – Vogelbach, Vientos
Who knows what the back end of the pen will look like or if they’ll carry three catchers or what the final two bench spots will be. It seems like they might be in the market for a lefty batter with more sock than Guillorme. But the rotation seems set. There’s been talk about potentially trading Carlos Carrasco but it seems far-fetched to me.
There was a point two years ago where the Mets hadn’t made any moves, to which Steve Cohen replied, “Don’t you think someone will take our money?” And of course, they did. And plenty more took the Mets’ money this year, too. If the Mets viewed Carrasco as expendable once they had four starters better than him, why pick up his option in the first place? That might be reasonable for a team with a strict budget. But not for this year’s Mets.
The Mets in 2023 are going to look much like they did in 2022, at least offensively. But the rotation is going to look different. Is it better? Let’s take a look.
| Player | 2022 fWAR | 2023 Steamer |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 2.2 | 5.5 |
| Max Scherzer | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| Chris Bassitt | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Taijuan Walker | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Total | 14.2 | 15.6 |
If the Mets simply re-signed the same five starters they hoped would make up their rotation in 2022, they’re projected to have 1.4 additional wins. But would that be better than what the rotation actually gave the Mets in 2022? With injuries, those five gave the Mets 122 starts. The 2023 Steamer forecasts has that quintet with 149 starts.
That’s a difference of 27 starts. Last year, David Peterson and Tylor Megill gave the Mets 28 starts. It broke down as 19 starts and a 1.6 fWAR for Peterson and nine starts and a 0.7 fWAR for Megill. So, the actual Mets rotation in 2022 delivered 16.5 fWAR in 150 starts while the projections in 2023 for the five main pitchers is 15.6 fWAR in 149 games.
Now, let’s take a look at the rotation the Mets have put together for 2023. We’ll still use Steamer for our projections, except for Kodai Senga, who does not yet have a Steamer forecast. FanGraphs posted a ZiPS projection for Senga in its Top 50 Free Agents article, so we’ll use that. ZiPS does not have forecasts for the Mets published yet, which is why we’re using Steamer in the first place.
Scherzer – 31 starts, 4.3 fWAR
Justin Verlander – 31 starts, 4.2 fWAR
Senga – 22 starts, 2.9 fWAR
Jose Quintana – 31 starts, 2.0 fWAR
Carrasco – 29 starts, 1.8 fWAR
That’s 144 starts and 15.2 fWAR. Steamer forecasts Elieser Hernandez to make six starts, with a 0.5 fWAR. So, let’s look at the three groupings.
150 starts, 16.5 fWAR – Actual 2022 rotation
150 starts, 15.7 fWAR – Projected 2023 rotation with free agents signed
149 starts, 15.6 fWAR – Projected 2023 rotation with 2022 pitchers
At first glance, it seems that the Mets were going to be slightly worse in the rotation than they were a season ago, regardless of what they did in free agency. But we have to factor in the conservative nature of forecasts. The top pitching forecast for Steamer is deGrom’s 5.5 mark. But every year, there are pitchers who exceed that mark. Just last year, there were six pitchers who exceeded a 5.5 fWAR, including Verlander with a 6.1 mark.
If either Scherzer or Verlander makes their projected 31 starts in 2023, they’ll likely beat their Steamer forecasts and have a shot – and we can debate if that shot is 25% or 75% – to exceed deGrom’s projected 5.5 fWAR.
No system can predict the future. Rather, what they give us is the most likely output given the player’s age, recent production and historical comps, along with proprietary special-sauce adjustments unique to each system. ZiPS forecasted Scherzer to finish the 2022 season with 169.1 IP and a 3.9 fWAR. He produced a 4.4 fWAR in 144.1 IP.
What the forecasts are telling us is that the 50th-percentile projection for the 2023 Mets is right in line with the actual 2022 rotation, one that saw every non-deGrom hurler who made at least 10 starts exceed expectations. Here were the ZiPS fWAR forecasts – using because they’re the easiest to find for previous seasons – and actual output:
Bassitt – 2.5, 2.7
Carrasco – 1.2, 2.4
Peterson – 1.1, 1.4 (including his relief appearances)
Scherzer – 3.9, 4.4
Walker – 1.3, 2.5
deGrom was forecasted for a 4.5 fWAR in 22 games, while he delivered a 2.2 fWAR in 11 games. And if we expand the list to guys who made nine starts, we also get Megill (1.3, 0.6) and Trevor Williams (1.1, 0.6). Like with Peterson, the relief appearances are included in the actual fWAR numbers.
So, if we look at the eight pitchers who combined to make 159 of the Mets’ 162 starts last year, the fWAR ZiPS projections were for 16.9 fWAR, while they delivered 16.8 fWAR. That’s not too shabby, especially with deGrom pitching half as much as expected.
It’s beyond the scope of this piece, but it would be interesting to compare the past five years of projections versus reality. The 50th-percentile projection will frequently be off for the individual. But how does it compare on a team-wide basis? It certainly looked good for the Mets’ starting pitchers in 2022.
I see that the Mets are accepting calls on trading Carlos Carrasco. My assumption is that the team would be looking for a significant relief arm and a reasonable contract in return for their #5 pitcher (who could be a #2 pitcher on some teams). As much as I’m the minor league guy, I get squeamish about giving a full season of starts to David Peterson (who I still like). I wonder what the forecast would say with that new data plugged in.
Not sure why you would feel squeamish about giving Peterson 30 or so starts when in 19 starts last year he had a 3.86 ERA and a 1.6 fWAR.
Steamer projects Peterson to pitch in 48 games, with 8 starts, and hurl 83 IP with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.1 fWAR.
Whole brain vs. gut thing. I like Peterson as a spot starter and fear him being a full time one.
I have no problem with Peterson or Megill being the fifth starter. Even with Carrasco, one of those two may get their fair share of starts.
The Mets moves look great on paper with a lot of excitement. But this team is eerily similar to last year’s team, except possibly a full year of Alvarez.
I just saw the rumor mill on Carasco. Where could he go? Boston, San Diego, Tampa if they eat some of his salary, Angels, we will see.
Is it enough to keep up with the Braves who both have made upgrades? We will see.
I do have a hunch that they will add a starting caliber outfielder with some pop, either by trade or free agency.
I’d like these storylines debunked.
On the Mets Being the Same:
The 2022 rotation had two Aces who missed significant time. Scherzer’s injury not withstanding the Mets should get more quality starts from Verlander than they got from deGrom last year. Additionally, Kodai Senga has the potential (it is a double edged sword of a word) to be a lot more valuable than Bassit, giving the Mets possibly three Aces on their staff.
As much as I love Tomas Nido as a backup catcher, every at bat that the Mets replace James McCann and Nido with Francisco Alvarez should be extremely substantial. As good as Sean Murphy is, the difference between Murphy and William Contreras is lightyears smaller than the one between McCann/Nido and Alvarez.
I know people are worried about DH and with Vogelbach and Ruf slated to return I do not blame them. The Mets have Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio all capable of assuming those at bats and increasing output if the Lefty/Righty duo fail. Not to mention that Alvarez can be used as DH to help get him more at bats.
The Mets will sign a DH or a Starting Caliber Outfielder:
No, they probably won’t. As much as Uncle Steve is a hero to Met fans the Mets will not be throwing money at positions that they already have covered. If the Mets increase their salary further this offseason it will be to improve the bullpen which still looks to have suffered a downturn from last year.
The Phillies and Braves Keep Getting Better:
I won’t deny that the Phillies have made waves and that their team is improved from last year. I do not think the reigning NL Champs are anything more than Wild Card favorites as they remain a tick or two below both the Braves and the Mets.
The Braves… have not improved much, if at all, from the end of the season. They made a bad trade for Sean Murphy and have seen significant relief pitchers leave their team without making any signings. Additionally, Dansby Swanson and his 5.7 WAR seems like he isn’t even on the Braves radar.
The NL East remains a Beast but the Mets remain the top dog, at least on paper.
Two things in addition to what David said:
1 – Vogelbach had a 1.0 fWAR in about 1/3 of the season for the Mets last year. They’ll have him for a full year, replacing what the Mets got from Cano, Davis and Smith
2 – The Mets won 101 games last year! How realistic is it to improve on that?!? The pitching moves they’ve made given them an excellent shot to finish within a few games of 2022’s win total. The Dodgers first cracked 100 wins this century when they won 104 games in 2017. They finished with 12 fewer wins the following season. And that 92-win Dodgers team in 2018 made the World Series.
I’ve also heard some rumors that Carrasco could be dealt for minor league starting pitching prospect(s).
That would make me so happy
It would be prudent. They only need four starters for the playoffs. They need a top flight starting pitching prospect for the 2025 season. Carrasco, Vientos and Nido could net them one and also a depth starter to boot. Peterson (or Megill) is ready for the fifth spot in the rotation.
Yeah the whole “how much have we actually improved” and “it’s basically the same team as last year” argument seems to gloss over the fact that we won 101 games last year so bringing back largely the same team would not be so terrible. I think the starting rotation is at worst a wash from last year, but potentially better.
The lineup is essentially the same with vast improvement at catcher and a full season of mashing righties from Vogelbach in the DH slot, not to mention another year of improvement from Alonso, Baty, Alvarez, Vientos, etc.
The bullpen needs some work. But again, there isn’t much drop off from Ottavino to Robertson. Raley improves upon Joely Rodriguez. Hopefully Drew Smith stays healthy and consistent. Nogosek has another year under his belt. Curtiss, Ridings, Hernandez, Brigham, all have a shot.
I’d like to see them add Drury to be the RH DH compliment, 4th OF and utility player. He’d be a great fit on this team.
Given the age of four of our starters, especially our top two, and Senga having pitched once a week in Japan, I would like the Mets to keep Carrasco and add another starter. A six-man rotation would benefit all of our starters and keep them fresher for October. In my dreams, Uncle Steve would sign Rodon, but I’d be content if Peterson was one of a starting six.
The rumors are that the Mets are listening on Carrasco. Metsense used the accurate term – prudent. I like Cookie and have no issue with him in the 2023 rotation, but given the free agency pricing, his 1 year $14 million cost us very reasonable. Bringing back a quality controllable player or two and letting Peterson/Megill battle it out makes perfect sense if they find a willing trade partner.