An ‘improve on the margins’ plan that doesn’t block Francisco Alvarez

Steve Cohen has approved more spending than most of us thought he would. If he had stopped after the club signed Kodai Senga, absolutely no fan would have complained. But then the Mets went on to sign Omar Narvaez, when they already had three catchers so this crazy offseason continues. It would be nice to see a reunion with Adam Ottavino, especially now with both Mychal Givens and Seth Lugo off the board. But there are roughly 20 pitchers on the Mets for the eight bullpen spots. Perhaps Cohen’s money can be better spent elsewhere.

Some might like it if the Mets brought back Michael Conforto, to replace Mark Canha in left field. There would be no criticism from me if that’s the direction Billy Eppler went. Yet there’s another player out there who might not have the raw upside of Conforto but one who offers both a higher floor and more versatility. And that latter trait is one that might be more desirable than usual if the Mets are going to carry three catchers. And he’s likely available for fewer dollars than Conforto.

For your consideration, how about Jurickson Profar? He came up as a shortstop but played all of his 143 games in the field last year in left field. Additionally, Profar is a switch-hitter, who was consistent from both sides of the plate in 2022, albeit slightly better against LHP. His .734 OPS last year against southpaws would be a nice complement to Daniel Vogelbach in the DH spot and he could also give Canha at least consistent days off, if not challenge him for the starting spot in left outright.

Now, my preference is for Francisco Alvarez to fill that righty DH role, while looking for him to take over more starts behind the plate as the year goes on. But the Narvaez signing seems to indicate the club going in a different direction, hoping a platoon with an emphasis on defense will give the Mets their best chance to win in 2023.

It’s frustrating when the team talks about building up the farm system, yet when one of the players from the farm system looks ready to contribute, they find a way to block his path. It’s the old talk/action dilemma that we’ve seen for years from the Mets in one shape or another. A previous one that stuck in my craw was the team’s alleged preference for OBP but when a guy showed the ability to get on base, they didn’t look for ways to get him in the lineup.

Matt den Dekker has a .392 OBP in his final 125 PA in 2014 but instead of giving him a shot, they go out and sign Michael Cuddyer and forfeit their first-round pick to do so. And then they trade den Dekker at the end of Spring Training. Brandon Nimmo has a .374 OBP in his final 164 PA in 2017. The Mets go out and re-sign Jay Bruce to a three-year deal. Nimmo only gets a shot in 2018 because every outfielder on the team battles an injury in the early going.

But they had no problem finding playing time for OBP sinkholes like Eric Young Jr. (.307 OBP in 743 PA as a Met) or Juan Lagares (.297 OBP in 2,119 PA as a Met) or Wilmer Flores (.303 OBP in 2,011 PA as a Met.)

It’s easy to talk a good game about building up your farm system and playing rookies in meaningful roles. It’s another thing to actually use them. And it doesn’t look like the Mets are ready to use their rookies in 2023.

So, if you’re going to look to play established veterans over rookies, at least get veterans who can deliver. I was in favor of the decision to get Darin Ruf at the trade deadline last year as a rental because he came with a track record of hitting LHP. But he certainly didn’t do that once the Mets got him. And he’s going to be in his age-36 season in 2023. If you don’t want to give a job to a rookie, at least don’t give one to an old guy with a giant fork sticking out of his back.

My belief is that Profar would be an improvement over Ruf. And there’s still some upside with Profar. He’s shown the ability to produce in different areas but he hasn’t combined those in the same season. In 2018, he has 20 HR and a .204 ISO. Last year his ISO was .148 and in 2021 it was .093 in 412 PA. In 2016, he has a .291 BABIP. In 2019 he has a .218 mark and lifetime he has a .264 rate. In 2018 Profar was successful on all 10 of his SB attempts and had a 4.0 BsR rate. In 2021, his SB success rate was just 67% and he had a (-1.9) BsR.

There’s a school of thought that once a player shows a skill in an area, he “owns” that and is capable of doing it again. Of course, there are always going to be outliers – Brady Anderson hitting 50 HR when he never hit more than 24 HR in any other season of his career. But is it really out of the question that Profar could deliver a .291 BABIP, a .204 ISO and a positive baserunning season all in the same year? He’ll be in his age-30 season in 2023.

Narvaez was an improvement on the margins while Alvarez offered much greater upside, although with more risk in his defensive abilities. If the Mets are now in the “improve on the margins with veterans” phase of the offseason, then a Profar signing would make sense, too. Plus, his ability to play in both the infield and outfield might make carrying Alvarez and three catchers an easier proposition. You could even dream that Profar takes over as the primary LF and Alvarez focuses on the DH/C role that seems ideal for him to break into the majors while minimizing his catching, allowing Glenn Sherlock to work closely with him on the defensive side of things at the major league level.