For hitters this year, we’re going to bring back the playing time element by projecting PA. RotoChamp does not include PA, so their entry will be AB + BB. Along with that will be the triple-slash line of AVG/OBP/SLG. There are five categories for pitchers so to bring it in line with the hurlers, let’s do raw HR, since most people seem to be concerned about how many homers this year’s Mets will hit. We’ll start things off with Pete Alonso. Here’s what the computer models forecast for him this season:

ATC – 656 PA, .264/.349/.516, 38 HR
THE BAT – 671 PA, .264/.350/.508, 38 HR
Marcel – 606 PA, .261/.340/.490, 32 HR
RotoCH – 651 PA, .265/.349/.525, 41 HR
Steamer – 649 PA, .261/.347/.520, 39 HR
ZiPS – 647 PA, .261/.349/.515, 38 HR

The longer a player has been in the league, the more likely his computer forecasts will be similar. And you can’t get much more agreement than you see with the Alonso forecasts. The only outlier is Marcel, which seemingly makes no adjustment for the shortened season in 2020.

One thing we need to discuss is how consistent Alonso has been in the BABIP category. Discounting the Covid year, Alonso has been in the majors for three full seasons and his BABIP numbers have been .280, .274 and .279 last year. That’s remarkable consistency. And in the past two seasons, he’s gotten off to good starts in the category, only to fall back to what we now have to consider his personal rate.

The league may have a rate near .300 but individuals can and do have different personal rates. A .300 BABIP would be a below-average mark for Jeff McNeil but it would be a nice season for Alonso. That’s not to say Alonso can’t do it. Rather, if he does put up a .300 BABIP, it should be considered a good mark for him in the category.

Additionally, Alonso’s walk rate has been between 9.8 and 10.4% each of his three years in the majors. It’s no wonder there’s such agreement on his AVG and OBP among the models.

We see more variance in the SLG but even there it’s only a 17-point difference between the low and high marks for the non-Marcel systems. In the Christmas Wishes column, my gift to Alonso was an end to his declining HR/FB rate. His 19.0% mark was the 13th-best in the majors last year. It’s just that when he made his debut in 2019, it was 30.6%. But the projection models essentially agree on his HR, too.

Alonso has been a good Met and a guy who’s tremendously fun to root for, given his raw power. Yet it’s reasonable to ask if we’ve seen the best he’s going to do, given his consistency in BABIP and BB%, along with declining HR/FB rates.

He put up a 4.0 fWAR last year, which is a really good mark. But how much better can he do? For a comparison, Freddie Freeman has topped Alonso’s career-best of 4.4 – done in his rookie season – six times, including a 7.1 mark last season. Does Alonso have a 5.0 fWAR in him, much less a 7.1 mark?

THE BAT projects Alonso with a 4.5 fWAR, the highest of the four systems on FanGraphs, with an improvement in his defensive numbers helping to drive the forecast. This will be Alonso’s age-28 season, meaning he’s in the heart of his prime right now. Will Alonso break thru to a new level in 2023? Here’s my totally biased projection:

645 PA, .270/.355/.530, 41 HR

7 comments on “Mets 2023 projections: Pete Alonso

  • David_Hong

    I expect another great year for the Polar Bear, and hopefully an extension next.

  • NYM6986

    620PA .260/.350/.500 50HR
    I am optimistic about a good year for Pete as he continues to grow. He needs a strong bat hitting behind him so that he is harder to pitch around and sees better pitches. He is basically the only big HR hitter in the lineup given the rest of the team will fall between 15-25. All the more reason why Alvarez would make a great bat behind him but it does not look likely, at least to start the season. If he can avoid the HR slump periods he could reach 50. He will never be Freddie Freeman, but then who is? We all see Freeman making the HOF someday, but despite his first 3 seasons, we don’t dare think Pete, while still having a very long road ahead, is heading in the right direction.

  • Footballhead

    PA 660, AVG .272, OBP .350, SLG 525 HR 44……..why not! I think he’ll have a better 2nd half of a season.

  • BoomBoom

    583 PA
    .260 Avg
    .350 obp
    .535 slg
    48 HR
    142 RBI

    • Footballhead

      I was of two minds about Pete, and you covered my 2nd mind BoomBoom.

      On the one hand, I thought Alonso would have the HR & RBI totals you predicted, but I also thought that maybe; for the first time, Pete would spend significant time on the IL. So I believe your PA is going to be more realistic then what I had posted…..but man; with 80 less PA’s, you really have him pounding the ball! I would imagine a higher SLG % then what you have.

      If he does slug away the way you envision; and he does avoid the IL; then perhaps we will have our first Met MVP this year!

  • DAEngel1969

    Alonso is a very easy guy to root for – mostly because of his consistent production year to year. He’s going to hit for power and he’ll drive in the runners in front of him. Think about how many teams are going to be lined up hoping to sign him if the Mets don’t extend him.

  • Metsense

    Alonso has matured as a hitter and he is growing into his prime. He is going to have a great year.
    673 PA, .273/.360/.540 46 HR

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