The 1966 Dodgers utilized a four-man rotation, one that featured three future Hall of Famers and the fourth, the black sheep, pitched for 18 years and was a two-time 20-game winner. That year, Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, Claude Osteen and Don Sutton combined to make 154 of the team’s 162 starts. You don’t see rotations like that anymore.
Even as recently as 2019, the Mets had fairly healthy starters, albeit with a five-man rotation. Four of the five Mets starters combined for 125 starts. Jason Vargas started the year in the rotation and was there until he was dealt at the trade deadline, replaced by Marcus Stroman, who was acquired in a different deadline deal. If we combine Vargas and Stroman into one guy, the Mets’ five starters made 154 starts, just like the Dodgers’ quartet in 1966.
It’s been a different story for the Mets since 2019.
In the Covid year, the Mets used 10 different starters in a 60-game season. In 2021, the top five pitchers in starts combined for just 110. Last year, the top five accumulated 130 but that comes with an asterisk, as the club’s top two pitchers combined for just 34 starts.
This year the Mets’ five starters 30 or older, including 40-year-old Justin Verlander. What are the odds that the five veterans can combine for 154 starts? Not many people would give that a good chance of happening. But what is a reasonable total for this quintet? How many starts will Verlander, Max Scherzer, Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana and Carlos Carrasco make?
How many starts will the Mets' five preferred starters make in 2023?
- 121-140 (64%, 7 Votes)
- 100-120 (27%, 3 Votes)
- 141 or more (9%, 1 Votes)
- Fewer than 100 (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 11
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I peg it in the low 120s but partially by design. I think this team is happy if McGill and Peterson combine for 25 starts to keep everyone else fresh for the playoffs.
I’ll be optimistic and say 130 total for the five. Quintana 30, Senga 26, Carrasco 26, Scherzer 24, Verlander 24. Regarding Megill and Peterson, I’m more of a Peterson fan and hope he gets the bulk of the remaining 32 starts. It of course would be great if Verlander & Scherzer stayed healthy and added the dozen start between them…….but let’s hope the Mets are able to save them for the extra month of post-season pitching.
I think this will land near the upper range – between 130-140. I don’t expect 6+ innings per start, however.
This is the question? Remember DeGrom the last two years? 30-40 missed starts even with Peterson,McGill behind them could be a huge problem.
Just 126. It’s an old pitching staff. Peterson started 19 games last year and I think he’ll start another18-20 games this year and have a similar or better 3.83 ERA. He is a good depth starter. McGill and Lucchesi will split the remaining 16-18 starts. It is a good, deep rotation.
In the land of wild guesses, this is right up there. Who knows!
A benchmark for me would be that Verlander & Scherzer can combine for 50 starts. That would be an optimistic number. Maybe 45. If that number goes below 30, the Mets are going to have some trouble.
Senga to me is a huge variable. I am very much in favor of the signing — we didn’t have him, and now we do! — but the range of possible outcomes if very wide. I could see him struggling mightily and getting knocked out of the rotation; I could see him being something of a sensation and enjoying an All-Star quality first half. Which is it going to be?
I’ve never seen him pitch. After a few outings, we’ll have more info on which to base a guess.
Wow, the 2019 team was something. So close to a WS contender. Noah was really bad in 2019 and the team was built around that staff. We know that Diaz was insanely awful and Cano just bad. A decent performance from one of those and that team makes the postseason. The Nationals got on a roll and won the WS that year; I really think, if a couple of reasonable things went our way (Diaz being good; Noah being good), it could have been us. To me, one of the most enjoyable Mets seasons in the past dozen years.
FWIW – ZiPS projects them to make 51 starts, with JV getting 27 and MS getting 24. It has the other three starters getting 69, so it places the O/U at 120.