Mets 2023 projections: Eduardo Escobar

It was an eventful year for Eduardo Escobar, one that continued into the offseason with the pursuit of Carlos Correa to take his job. In his first year with the Mets in 2022, the free-swinging Escobar drew 15 BB in the month of April. After that, he returned to his usual self, finishing with a BB% even lower than he had in 2021. Escobar struggled against RHP and was ultimately turned into a platoon player in the second half of the season. He also suffered an oblique injury in mid-August. But in his final 129 PA, Escobar had a .982 OPS. A six-week hot streak that had no regression because it was the end of the year? Or an indication that there’s still life in the bat? Here’s what the computer models think:

ATC – 477 PA, .235/.293/.411, 17 HR
Marcel – 531 PA, .239/.296/.421, 19 HR
RotoCh – 555 PA, .246/.302/.442, 22 HR
Steamer – 435 PA, .233/.291/.404, 15 HR
THE BAT – 477 PA, .231/.292/.404, 17 HR
ZiPS – 548 PA, .232/.292/.417, 21 HR

For the most part, the computers aren’t buying Escobar’s late-season hitting. They see his AVG being the worst it’s been in a full season since 2012-13 and they don’t see him getting any more patient, either. They do see him retaining solid power. Perhaps the most interesting thing is that these models, which do not take into account other players on the team, have a pretty big difference in playing time. The difference between the high and low forecasts is 120 PA, which is pretty stark for a veteran. And it’s not just one outlier, either. Three of the models have him with PA in the 400s, while three have him with 531 or more.

We’ve already seen the Spring Training stories where Brett Baty is going to have a big Grapefruit League campaign and win the 3B job immediately. That seems, um, optimistic.

There’s been a lot of talk about turning the Mets into Dodgers East. But one thing the Dodgers haven’t been world-beaters on is giving youngsters a shot. You can say that this is because their lineup is already full and there’s no room at the inn. But in the last five full years, going back to 2017, here are the Dodgers 25 and under who cracked 400 PA for the first time:

Cody Bellinger
Gavin Lux

Bellinger got 548 PA in his debut season in 2017 as a 21 year old. Lux made his MLB debut in 2019 and cracked 400 PA for the first time in 2022 as a 24 year old. The Mets are not exactly young-player friendly to begin with and if they’re going to mimic the Dodgers in this respect, it’s difficult to see Baty winning the job in Spring Training.

But it’s not hard to imagine Baty getting off to a great start in Triple-A and taking over at third base sometime in the middle of the season. That scenario implies that Escobar puts up numbers like the computer models think. Or worse.

That may be the most likely scenario. But there’s also the chance that Escobar returns to the roughly .800 OPS player he was in each full season from 2018-2021. And if Escobar is producing like that, Baty won’t replace him at 3B, regardless of how well he’s hitting in the minors.

We have a popular veteran in Escobar, who’s being pushed from behind by one of the team’s top prospects. But Escobar finished 2022 on a strong note, which combined with the Mets’ affinity for veterans, gives him a fair amount of rope coming into 2023. Here’s my totally biased prediction of how much rope:

409 PA, .226/.279/.404, 15 HR