In his second season with the Mets, Francisco Lindor played in all but one game and saw his OPS+ jump 25 points from his first year in Queens. The result was a ninth-place finish in the MVP voting. Outside of the career-high IFFB%, it’s hard to imagine a much-better season from Lindor. So, what does he do for an encore? Here’s what the computer models project:

ATC – 655 PA, .254/.327/.429, 23 HR
Marcel – 605 PA, .254/.327/.424, 21 HR
RotoCh – 627 PA, .261/.333/.436, 24 HR
Steamer – 666 PA, .249/.321/.427, 24 HR
THE BAT – 655, .251/.324/.431, 24 HR
ZiPS – 649 PA, .255/.328/.440, 25 HR

As expected for a veteran, we have a pretty strong consensus on what Lindor will provide. It’s perhaps a touch surprising that the models all see a drop from Lindor in the AVG category. Last year he hit .270, a mark he exceeded five times previously in his career. The trouble was the two times he fell short of the mark came in 2020 and 2021. From a subjective point of view, 2020 can be dismissed because of 60 games and 2021 because of it being his first year in New York. But if we know anything, it’s that the computer forecasts are not subjective.

Another thing to consider with Lindor and his AVG is that he’s surprisingly not a high-BABIP guy. It didn’t start out that way, as his first two years with Cleveland, Lindor put up BABIPs of .348 and .324, respectively. But as his HR increased, his BABIPs dropped. Last year was the first time since 2016 that Lindor’s BABIP cracked the .300 mark, and at .301 it was just barely above the threshold.

We think of guys who have speed and who make solid contact as ones who can exceed the league average in BABIP. And while the general rule of thumb is that the league average in the category is .300, it was lower than that in 2022. Last season, the MLB BABIP was .290, meaning Lindor was 11 points above average. That doesn’t sound like a lot but consider that in 2021, Lindor was 44 points below the league BABIP. So, last year was a giant leap forward for him.

And while it would be nice to see Lindor put up an even-higher AVG than what he did last season, what we really want to see is a return to the .200-plus ISOs he ran from 2017-19. In a lot of ways, 2022 was a bounce-back year from Lindor after two sub-par seasons. Yet his .179 ISO was actually two points below what he posted in 2021.

Perhaps moving in the fences in part of RF at Citi Field will help Lindor to a couple of more homers and an ISO back in the 200s. It’s possible but off the top of my head, my recollection is that the balls Lindor hit hard were comfortably out of the park, not dying on the warning track. It’s very possible my recollection is wrong and that he does get a significant bump in power from the new dimensions of his home park. But that’s not going to be much of a factor in my forecast. Here’s my totally biased projection for Lindor this season:

666 PA, .280/.346/.466, 26 HR

9 comments on “Mets 2023 projections: Francisco Lindor

  • Steve_S.

    He’s settling in!

    640 PA, .275/.342/.480, 29 HR

  • Footballhead

    Again, I think the overall trend for next year will be the offense having a stronger 2nd half, and I agree with Steve_S. projections. It would be nice though, if Buck would build in a few off days for Lindor for next year. Would at least one day off a month help his overall numbers?

    PA 632 .275/.340/.460, and 27 dingers. Oh, and another year of good glove work. 5+ WAR

  • BoomBoom

    602 PA, .288/.355/.490, 32 HR
    6 WAR

  • NYM6986

    I think last year was a comeback year for Lindor. He excelled last season as a one two punch with Alonso. I see him improving this year and if there is a strong bat behind Alonso so they can’t pitch around him, they will have no choice but to throw more better pitches to Lindor. As far as RBI it all depends and how often the table setters get on base.

    I’m going with 635PA, .290/350/.470 along with 28 HR

  • Metsense

    29-year-old Lindor is running out of time for the statistics to earn him the Hall of Fame. When the Mets obtained him Chris F wrote an impressive and convincing article that Lindor is potentially a Hall of Famer. The two years with the Mets has not added to his resume. I’m hoping that he has one more bWAR of 7.2 in him and maybe get an MVP award. I don’t think it’s in him anymore but he is a very good shortstop and player and I’m glad the Mets have him. My tempered projection is:

    664 PA, .257/ .334/.431, 23 HR

    • Brian Joura

      I disagree with this take.

      Lindor has 42 fWAR thru his age-28 season, with 11 fWAR coming in the past two years. Essentially, 60 fWAR gets you in the conversation for the HOF and 70 is pretty much a guarantee. He’s under contract for nine more years. If he puts up the same fWAR total in ’23 and ’24 that he did the previous two seasons, that leaves him needing just 17 fWAR in his final seven seasons, which seems very doable.

      And it certainly won’t hurt his case if he leads the Mets to their first World Series win in over 30 years.

      • Metsense

        For comparison, Jeter is in the HOF and he is a recent New York shortstop. Between age 29 and 37 he accumulated 37.5 fWAR . I wouldn’t be much of a Met fan if I didn’t think Lindor is better than Jeter who accumulated a 73 fWAR in his career. Therefore Lindor should at least accumulate the same as Jeter and accumulate at least 79.5 fWAR and also be in the Hall of Fame. Good argument Brian, you have changed my mind.

  • BrianJ

    I checked the list of guys who just cleared the 70-fWAR mark and the only one not to make it was Rafael Palmeiro. And it’s pretty easy to understand why, with his finger-wagging performance in front of Congress and then the failed steroids test…

    • Metsense

      Check out and click on the tab WAR Leaders and you will a few find others that were eligible and eclipsed the 70 WAR threshold and were not deemed cheaters.
      I laughed when site listed Roger Clemens first name.

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