Mets 2023 projections: Starling Marte

Starling Marte showed no dropoff in the batter’s box in his first season with the Mets in 2022. After posting a 132 OPS+ in 2021, he recorded a 132 for the Mets last season. But his stolen base numbers fell off considerably, which we learned was in part playing thru groin injuries. And he went from an average to below-average center fielder to a below-average right fielder, at least by the advanced metrics. UZR in particular didn’t like his defensive play last year, dinging him quite a bit for his lack of range. My eye test gave him generally good reviews except for one thing – he did not like making plays near the wall, where he tended to get alligator arms and would pull up shy of the fence.

While teammate Brandon Nimmo gets all of the flack for being injury-prone, Marte did his usual bit of missing around a month of the season, as he played in 118 games. And the Mets really felt his absence in September. Perhaps we should appreciate his caution near the wall, as we shouldn’t want him to get hurt playing defense. Will Marte break the cycle and play in 140 or more games this year and challenge for 600 PA? Here’s what the computer models forecast for him this season:

ATC — 540 PA, .274/.333/.420, 16 HR
Marcel – 505 PA, .284/.346/.434, 13 HR
RotoCh – 543 PA, .294/.351/.458, 16 HR
Steamer – 600 PA, .267/.324/.419, 16 HR
THE BAT – 540 PA, .274/.332/.414, 13 HR
ZiPS — 495 PA, .266/.327/.415, 13 HR

Well, Steamer thinks he’ll play more than he has since 2018. But ZiPS takes the prize for most bearish, as it projects Marte for over 100 fewer PA than Steamer. And that’s not the only area where the computer forecasts are conflicted. A 28-point difference between the high (Roto Champ) and low (ZiPS) forecast for AVG is a bit unusual for a veteran player. And a 44-point difference in SLG is noteworthy, too.

Marte had a .468 SLG last year, which makes the four projections of a .420 or under SLG seem very curious. Part of that can be explained by the AVG forecasts. It’s tough to project a SLG near .500 if you only think he’ll hit .266, like ZiPS does. Still, in his last five years, Marte has a .292/.348/.468 slash line in 2,473 PA, which is almost a perfect match for what he did last season, missing by just one point in OBP.

The models must really expect big age regression for Marte this year, in what will be his age-34 season.

While it’s not something that we project, perhaps the biggest question for Marte is if he’ll be more of a threat on the basepaths. After being successful on 47 of his 52 steal attempts in ’21, Marte was caught stealing 33% of the time last year and swiped just 18 bags. Will Marte be more aggressive in that department this year, given the new rules? Or will he attempt even fewer steals, trying to keep his legs healthy? Ordinarily, my take would be to cut down steal attempts in these circumstances. But if Marte is healthy, it seems like it would be a smart play to let the guy who had a 90% success rate under the old rules try his luck a bit more than he did a season ago.

One last random thought about Marte. Watching him from afar for many years, Marte never struck me as a particularly great player. Nice enough, for sure, but not someone who would be a must-have for a team. But it seems to me that Marte did a wonderful job putting the team first, moving to right field, a position he never played before in the majors. There seems to be a good relationship between Marte and Buck Showalter, which certainly seems like an odd couple. And the offense certainly missed him while he was out last year.

As a Nimmo fan, my opinion is that he’s the most important guy to stay healthy. But after watching him play last year, Marte has leapfrogged many of his teammates in this category for me and you can make the case that he’s the second-most important hitter to keep in the lineup. The Mets should want to keep the Tommy Pham ABs to a minimum. With that in mind, here’s my totally biased forecast for Marte this season:

526 PA, .287/.343/.476, 18 HR