Each year it’s a rush to get all of the projections in. And inevitably, after the year is over, you wonder why more weren’t done. It’s a vicious cycle. Anyway, the season starts for the Mets on Thursday and there’s still at least four players who deserve a projection. So, this piece will be a catch-all for the remaining guys. Instead of a big write-up on one guy, this will be my projection and a line or two on multiple players.

Francisco Alvarez – 28 PA, .250/.357/.458, 1 HR – Mets catchers avoid the IL and Alvarez doesn’t see the majors until September.

Brett Baty – 156 PA, .245/.345/.420, 6 HR – Gets the call shortly after the All-Star break.

Omar Narvaez – 364 PA, .254/.337/.397, 11 HR – Last year’s down season was due in part to a hard-to-believe .193 BABIP in home games. Citi Field’s not a great hitter’s park but Narvaez should be able to do significantly better this year in his home park.

Tomas Nido – 200 PA, .255/.305/.400 – Lifetime he has an OPS 147 points higher versus LHP than RHP. With the lefty Narvaez to get the vast majority of ABs versus righties, that leaves Nido to face mostly southpaws and he responds with his best year at the plate.

Tommy Pham – 75 PA, .229/.291/.295, 2 HR – When he makes contact, Pham still hits the ball hard. There’s a very real chance he has a six-week hot streak and winds up with three times as many PA as this forecast. Or, he could go 2019 Keon Broxton and post a 40.5 K% and get cut after 53 PA. Either way, the end result won’t be pretty. If the early hot streak keeps him around, it will end up like Jose Bautista, who put up a .606 OPS in his final 197 PA with the Mets after his six-week hot streak was over.

Mark Vientos – 150 PA, .236/.301/.519, 11 HR – He destroyed LHP last year in Syracuse. When he gets the call to replace Pham, he’ll be a lefty masher, even if the AVG isn’t pretty in his first extended stretch versus MLB pitching.

Daniel Vogelbach – 448 PA, .247/.379/.447, 19 HR – People think Vogelbach is going to be significantly helped by the shift but that’s not my take. Hopefully, the hits he’s not getting in the Spring will show up some during the regular season. But his value is going to come from walks and power.

Shoot might as well do the new closer, too.

David Robertson – 65 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, 75 Ks, 27 Saves – He’s not going to be as dominant as Edwin Diaz. But that’s okay. It will be curious to see if Buck Showalter uses Robertson as his primary closer or if there will be more mix and matching going on. My expectation is that a half a dozen guys will register a save but that Robertson will get the lion’s share of them.

6 comments on “Mets 2023 projections: The final batch

  • Steve_S.

    Francisco Alvarez – 150 PA, .240/.350/.475, 8 HR He will rake in the minors, an injury will bring him up earlier, and he will do fine.

    Brett Baty – 225 PA, .265/.350/.440, 9 HR – Someone won’t hit and/or an injury will get him up to NY.

    Omar Narvaez – 400 PA, .260/.345/.440, 11 HR – He’ll surprise us with his power.

    Tomas Nido – 175 PA, .245/.295/.420, 6 HR – Will also hit a few more HRs.

    Tommy Pham – 125 PA, .220/.305/.320, 3 HR – Not the greatest signing.

    Mark Vientos – 175 PA, .240/.320/.480, 9 HR – He should have been at RHDH to start the season.

    Daniel Vogelbach – 400 PA, .238/.405/.450, 17 HR – Eppler made the right move last season with a trade for this guy.

    David Robertson – 70 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 75 Ks, 28 Saves – Lucky to have him.

  • Metsense

    The catchers first. Narvaez and Nido will share a strict platoon. Alvarez will only be promoted if they are injured. Otherwise, he will be a September call up ( and that is a shame).
    Narvaez was last good in 2018-19. He is now 31 years old and past his prime years and he is a catcher. He is not going to duplicate his prime years.
    349 PA, 248/333/376, 10 HR
    Nido will have a better year this year but that is not saying much. He is a good defensive catcher and can sacrifice bunt.
    231 PA, 245/291/377, 6 HR
    Alvarez will have a good year in AAA and with only limited time in MLB.
    70 PA, 234/351/443 5 HR
    My hope and dream is that one of the two platoon catchers will get traded at the All-Star break and Alvarez will be promoted.

    • David_Hong

      Really hope that Tommy Pham doesn’t turn into Keon Broxton, but more like Scott Hairston Jr (2012) or Marlon Byrd (2013.

      • Brian Joura

        Is Pham responsible for getting the steroids himself or do the Mets still have a guy for that?

  • Metsense

    The DH will be shared by platoon.
    It is not hard to like Vogelbach as a hitter and a teammate. Look closer and you see a strictly one dimensional player. He can’t run, which Locastro more necessary, and it depletes the bench another player. He can’t be trusted field. Showalter said Canha was back up first baseman! He is only a hitter, and that’s it. He falters (as in DFA) or gets injured then Baty will be promoted.
    Vogelbach: 453 PA, 246/370/459 20 HR (1 SB no matter what Showalter thinks)

    Pham will be the other part of the platoon. I hope that he doesn’t get too many games as an outfielder. When Canha or Marte get rest than McNeil should be in the outfield and Guillorme should be at second base but that isn’t going to happen. Guillorme will not get 200 PA this year. Vientos or Alvarez should replace Pham if he is injured. Pham will have a long leash if he falters, at least to the All-Star break.
    Pham: 354 PA 262/357/450 9 HR

    Escobar falters or gets injured then Baty will be promoted.
    Baty: 272/364/424

    Vientos will gets promoted if Alsono is injured(bite my tongue).
    Vientos: 255/300/481

  • Metsense

    Because of his experience in closing I think Robertson will be the primary closer. He is more than capable.

    David Robertson: 69 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.11WHIP, 88 Ks, 31 Saves 31

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