Each year with the predictions column I start by going back to the previous year’s piece. The goal is to get more than 50 percent right, while not making boring predictions. Not once in all of the years of doing this have more turned out right than wrong. Wait, wait – stop the presses! For the first time ever, the rights topped the wrongs. Here are the eight that turned out true:

1. Brandon Nimmo – neck injury and all – finishes with more PA than Starling Marte.
2. Francisco Lindor will have a hot streak – minimum 50 PA – better than anything he had last season. In September, Lindor had a stretch with a 1.049 OPS. He’ll have one of at least 1.200 this year.
3. When he last played for the Mets, Robinson Cano had a .228 ISO. He’ll have less than half that mark this year.
4. While the projection systems on FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference have Max Scherzer with an ERA of 3.08 or greater, he’ll turn in his seventh-straight full season with an ERA in the twos.
5. Chris Bassitt is the pitcher the offense shows up for and it helps him to 15 Wins.
6. After a 2.03 HR/9 in 2019 and a 2.01 rate in 2021, Carlos Carrasco turns in a sub 1.5 HR/9 in 2022.
7. The Mets used 19 different starters in 2021. This year will be a dozen or fewer.
8. Last year, the Mets scored 636 runs. This year they’ll score at least 750.

Additionally, my Jeff McNeil prediction, that he would slug 100 points higher than the year before, essentially came true when his SLG was 94 points higher. And my prediction for Mark Canha’s PA being under 500 was on pace to be true before his six-week hot streak and Marte’s injury.

It’s wonderful to finally meet my goal of getting more right. All it took was a 101-win season. The Mets finally met my mostly optimistic projections, rather than me taking the easy way out and making boring picks. No one wants to read a bunch of predictions like “the Mets will have a guy come down with a season-ending injury.” So here are a group of predictions that will range from head tilting to eyebrow-raising to outright aggressive. But these are all things I believe will happen, not ones made simply to be controversial. So, here’s the 2023 list:

1. Scherzer and Justin Verlander combine for 20 more starts than the 34 that the two aces did in 2022.
2. Both Omar Narvaez (.597 OPS last year) and Tomas Nido (.600) finish with OPS marks of .700 or more.
3. Carrasco will finish with an ERA a full run below THE BAT’s 4.50 forecast for him.
4. After combining for five triples + stolen bases in ’22, the slimmed-down Pete Alonso will have 10.
5. Drew Smith is not on the post-season roster.
6. Marte hit into 18 GDPs last year but will hit no more than 10 this season.
7. Kodai Senga finishes with a 10.0 K/9 and is top 10 in the NL among qualified starters.
8. Tommy Pham is released before the All-Star break.
9. David Robertson and Adam Ottavino combine for more saves than Edwin Diaz had in 2022.
10. Lindor tops his current OPS+ best of 132.
11. McNeil has an ISO 50 points higher than last year’s .128 mark.
12. Canha’s HR total is in single digits.
13. Daniel Vogelbach posts an OPS 50 points higher than the top projection for him, Steamer’s .755 mark.
14. Luis Guillorme gets sent to the minors at some point.
15. The Mets win the NL East.


When I first started doing these, people would comment on my picks. Here lately, it’s been much more of a case where people make their own picks. That’s perfectly fine. Just make sure to note that the blind squirrel (me) finally found the nut before you offer your projections.

10 comments on “Predictions for the 2023 Mets

  • Steve_S.

    My ten predictions for 2023:
    1. Kodai Senga will become a new folk hero in New York, with fans coming to games dressed as ghosts!
    2. Francisco Lindor will not hit 30 HR, but will steal 30 bases.
    3. Eduardo Escobar will lose his 3B job to Brett Baty by June 1.
    4. Tommy Pham will get fewer and fewer ABs, with Mark Vientos getting most of them during the year.
    5. The Mets will win 92 games and get a wild card.
    6. But they will make it to the World Series, with Edgar Diaz closing for them then.
    7. Pete Alonso will win the HR title in the NL with 45 dingers and have more HRs than Aaron Judge.
    8. Lindor will win a gold glove.
    9. Brandon Nimmo will steal a dozen bases.
    10. John Curtiss and Stephen Ridings will be surprise plusses in the bullpen, with each having ERAs at around 3.00.

    • Steve_S.

      As for my last year’s predictions:
      1. Tylor Megill – will make at least 20 starts (only had 9)
      2. Mark Vientos – will be called up before mid-year and hit at least 15 HR (only 1)
      3. Starling Marte – will steal 40 bases or more (only 18)
      4. Dom Smith – will hit 25 HR or more (0 in NY)
      5. Max Scherzer – will pitch a no-hitter (pulled after 6 perfect innings after being on IL on 9/19)
      6. Jacob deGrom – will also pitch a no-hitter (5 no-hit innings on 9/18)
      7. Edwin Diaz – will save at least 40 games, far surpassing his previous Mets totals (had 32)
      8. Chris Bassitt – will pitch at least 175 innings (his all-time high) (*181)
      9. Brandon Nimmo & Jeff McNeil – will have at least 30 HBP between them (almost w/27)
      10. Eduardo Escobar, Max Scherzer & Pete Alonso – will all be in the top 15 in vote getters for MVP (only Alonso, who came in 8th)
      11. Carlos Carrasco – will pitch the entire year (*had 29 starts)
      12. Buck Showalter – will not be criticized by most of us the entire year for his managerial decisions (*pretty much)
      13. “Cohen Tax” – the Mets will stay under its threshold (*yup)
      14. Khalil Lee, Nick Plummer & Carlos Cortes – will all have game-winning hits (nope, LOL)
      15. Max Scherzer – will win the Cy Young Award (nope)
      16. The Mets – will win the NLCS (no cigar)
      17. Mark Canha – will hit at least 20 HR (only 13)
      18. Patrick Mazeika – will dribble-in a run again this year (nope)
      19. Mets Infield – the four starters will total 2.0 dWAR (nope)
      20. Seith Lugo – will have an ERA+ of 140 or better (only 108)

  • BoomBoom

    Ah at last! My favorite post of the year. 🙂

    I too benefitted from the 101 win season last year and the relative health of all of the major contributors. Last season I had Nimmo playing more than 140 games (check), but also had him making the all star team (no check). I predicted Alonso would break his own home run record which he didnt. I had the Mets scoring 800 runs which they approached (I think I was off by 34 or so). I’m most proud of the following correct calls:

    1. The Mets did not blow a single game when leading entering the 9th inning
    2. McNeil won the batting title
    3. Nido played more than McCann
    4. Cano WAS off the team by June 1

    So I didn’t quite get to 50% correct, but with Nimmo playing more than 140 games I gave myself 4.5 out of 10.

    For this season:

    1. Pete Alonso will break his own home run record and lead the majors
    2. Lindor and Alonso will finish 2, 3 in the MVP voting
    3. I’m with you on the games started number between Max and Justin – I’ll go over 50
    4. Kodai Senga wins the ROY
    5. Drew Smith leads the team in saves
    6. Mets trade 1 of their top 5 prospects (Vientos, Ramirez, Mauricio, Alvarez, Baty) for a late inning reliever at the deadline
    7. McNeil plays more games in LF than at 2B
    8. David Peterson makes 25 starts and pitches to a sub 3 ERA
    9. Vogelbach steals 3 bases
    10. Nimmo steals 20 bases

  • T.J.

    Not to be a Debbie Downer, but

    I’ll go out on a limb and predict that Verlander will land on the IL before every throwing a regular season pitch for the Mets.

    Oh, wait…

    Gee whiz.

    • Mike W

      You stole my thunder. Of all days, he goes on the DL on opening day.

  • Woodrow

    Todays game the Marlins if they get on base will be running.

  • Woodrow

    1. McNeil bats fifth, hits 20+ HRs.
    2. Vogelbach hits 20 HRs.
    3. Baty takes over 3B and becomes a fan favorite.
    4. Guillorme gets 350 ABs and plays a gold glove 2B.

  • Mike W

    deGrom got shelled today. Good Luck Jake.

  • Metsense

    1. Agree even if Verlander starts out on the injured list.
    2. Narvaez yes, Nido no because

  • Footballhead

    I know the season is two games old, but I’m still “recovering” from my Florida trip. I’ll be the pessimist and say the Mets not only will not win 90 games, but will also not make the playoffs.

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