Mets overcome their fair share of adversity in the first two weeks

No one can claim with a straight face that everything has gone right for the Mets in the first two-plus weeks of the season. They opened the year with 40% of their starting rotation on the IL and in 15 games, they’ve lost 38% of their bullpen, with two guys landing on the IL and another being DFAd. That doesn’t even count ace closer Edwin Diaz being out for the year. And if that’s not enough, Max Scherzer is having his start pushed back.

Omar Narvaez is out for two months. Other than that, the hitters have been mostly healthy but, you know, they haven’t really hit. They’re 28th in the majors with a .220 AVG and they’re not making up for it with power, as their .369 SLG ranks 26th in MLB. The offensive trouble spots from a season ago still remain and neither their second basemen (.671 OPS) nor left fielders (.559 OPS) are doing a ton to push the team forward.

And to make matters worse, offense is up around the majors. April is usually one of the worst months of the year for offense, if not the worst. Yet, MLB teams are averaging 4.72 runs per game so far here in 2023. To put that in perspective, in 2022 MLB clubs averaged 4.28 rpg and in April it was 4.03 rpg.

Yet the Mets are 9-6, a .600 winning percentage that works out to a 97-win pace over a 162-game season. Just how are they doing it?

The schedule has certainly helped. They’ve played seven games against a Marlins team that they’ve dominated the past five years, along with two games against an A’s club that’s in the conversation for the worst team in baseball. In those nine games, the Mets are 7-2, even with six of those games being on the road.

With starters around MLB being affected more than anticipated with the new rules here in the early going, the Mets’ lack of dominating SP hasn’t really been much different from the rest of the league. And their bullpen has been solid overall and excellent in the back end. Adam Ottavino and David Robertson have combined for 13.1 IP and 1 ER, with 3 BB and 17 Ks. John Curtiss gave up a run in his first outing but has been lights out since. He’s given the team a 1.23 ERA in 7.1 IP.

While the hitting for the Mets has been lousy, they’ve done an excellent job of getting on base by other means. They lead the majors with 78 walks and their 13 HBPs are also tops in MLB. Most fans wouldn’t be surprised by those numbers, as the Mets have done well in both categories recently. What might be a shock is that they are fifth in the majors in steals. Additionally, they’ve had an outstanding success rate, swiping 17 bags while only being thrown out once. At this success rate, they should run even more. It might be the first time in franchise history one could make that claim.

The go-ahead run scored on Saturday was a perfect example of this. Daniel Vogelbach draws a walk, Tim Locastro runs for him and promptly steals second, his third steal of the season despite a .000 AVG. Two outs later, Brandon Nimmo knocks him home.

The extra baserunners have allowed the Mets to have more chances with runners in scoring position than you might expect. They’re fourth in the majors with 169 PA with RISP. They’re still underperforming here, with an OPS 30 points beneath league average. But the extra attempts, along with 11 doubles (3rd in the majors) and three homers has led to 54 runs scored, the 10th-best mark in MLB.

We look in the box score and see the Mets 1-8 or 2-12 with RISP and lament the lost chances. But the best way to score runs is to get runners on base and into scoring position in the first place. If given the chance to lead the league in LOB, you should take it. Last year, the top three clubs in LOB were the Mets, Red Sox and Dodgers. All three teams finished in the top 10 in runs scored, with the Dodgers leading the way and the Mets fifth. On the flip side, the three teams with the fewest LOB were Oakland, Pittsburgh and Detroit. They were three of the bottom four teams in runs scored.

Finally, when the Mets do score runs, they put up a W. The league average is 4.72 rpg and when the Mets score at least five runs, they’re 8-1.

The Mets, despite their poor hitting, are averaging 4.72 rpg. But that’s a bit misleading, as the number is propped up by Friday’s 17-run outburst. Take that one game away and they’ve scored 54 runs in 14 games, a 3.86 average. That has to get better.

There are several reasons to think the Mets’ hitting will improve going forward. You have guys with a track record where it’s easy to imagine them reverting to career averages. The catchers should improve from horrific to below-average. And there are guys in the minors who offer some hope for better production if given a shot.

Taken all together, the Mets have faced their share of adversity here in the early going and have more than held their own. It’s not like they have to dig out of a hole like the 5-10 Phillies, who’ve already played nine games against the Reds and Marlins. Hopefully the club survives the early West Coast trip, gets Justin Verlander back when they return home and then watch the offense start firing on all cylinders.