Brandon Nimmo heats up, the pitching staff’s gopher ball tendencies, free Ronny Mauricio

It was a hope coming into Spring Training that the starting pitching would be a strength and that the bullpen would be above average. Injuries to two starting pitchers and the closer dealt the pitching staff a blow right away. And while the overall record is great, the pitching hasn’t been all that. The staff has a 4.02 ERA, which is 11th in the majors. But it has a 5.00 FIP, which is the 25th-best mark in MLB. And the reason for the FIP being nearly a run higher is the HR allowed by the pitchers.

Mets pitchers have allowed 22 HR in 141 IP for a 1.4 HR/9. All of those numbers put them in the bottom third of MLB. And with 10 of their 16 games coming against teams that are below-average in hitting dingers, well, that’s not a good thing.

In 2022, Mets pitchers allowed 169 HR and saw 272 of their opponent’s runs score via the long ball. This year, their 22 HR allowed have produced 40 runs for their opponents. The ratio of 2022 runs that scored via the gopher ball was 45%. This year, 63% of the runs allowed by Mets pitching scored on a home run.

Traditionally, roughly about 60% of homers hit are solo shots. Mets hitters have cracked 18 HR and 11 of them have been solo shots, which is 61.1%. In all of MLB 312 of the 535 HR have come with the bases empty, which is 58.3%. Mets pitchers have surrendered solo shots just 45.5% of the time.

So, it’s a bad 1-2 combo of too many homers and too many homers with men on base. Hopefully, both numbers heavily regress over the rest of the season. At least they won’t have Dennis Santana around to pad the opposing team’s HR totals. Santana allowed 2 HR in 7.2 IP for a 2.3 HR/9, tied with Tommy Hunter for the worst mark on the staff.

NIMMO HEATS UP IN THE BOX AND IN THE FIELD – Brandon Nimmo skipped the WBC because he wanted to concentrate on performing for the Mets after signing his big free agent deal. Part of his preseason approach was to limit time in Grapefruit League action. Perhaps because of that, Nimmo got off to a slow start at the plate, going 2-12 in his first five games. Since then, he’s been swinging a hot bat, with a .324 AVG and a .479 OBP. We’re still waiting for his power to show up but a .479 OBP covers a lot of sins

And if the hitting wasn’t enough, he made two diving catches on Sunday, which played a big role in the Mets being able to pull out the game in extra innings. Add everything together and Nimmo has a 0.8 fWAR, tied with Pete Alonso for the second-best mark on the team, trailing the 1.0 mark of Francisco Lindor.

METS SO LUCKY TO FIND A RELIEVER LIKE DENYI – Few noticed when Denyi Reyes struck out five without allowing a walk in six innings during Grapefruit League action. Reyes didn’t make the club out of Spring Training but he was the first reliever promoted when Hunter went on the IL. Since joining the Mets, Reyes has appeared in four games and has not allowed either a walk or run in five innings. He’s notched five strikeouts, too. Reyes is clearly a “B” reliever at this point. But assuming he’s not sent out today because he pitched two innings yesterday, Reyes could have an extended stint with the Mets.

BABY STEPS FOR THE METS’ YOUNGEST PLAYER – We all want Francisco Alvarez to start hitting and hitting with power immediately. Unfortunately, you can’t always get what you want. Alvarez delivered an RBI single in his first AB for the Mets this season. He then proceeded to strike out in five of his next seven PA.

Sporadic playing time hasn’t helped but neither has an ultra-aggressive approach at the plate. But Alvarez played in back-to-back games this weekend and while the results weren’t there, we see some signs of improvement. In his last seven trips to the plate, Alvarez fanned just once. Then in his four PA on Sunday, Alvarez made solid contact each time, with exit velocity values over 90 each time, including three at 94.6 mph or higher. Next is for those hard-hit balls to find some holes.

SOME PEOPLE CALL ME MAURICIO – With Alvarez already in the majors and Brett Baty expected to be activated later today, fans can turn their full attention to the exploits of Ronny Mauricio. Not nearly enough people were impressed by the 26 HR that Mauricio hit at Double-A at age 21 last year. And he’s proving that was no fluke, as he has a .789 SLG after 15 games in Triple-A.

You hear people harp about his plate discipline but Mauricio has made a bit of progress here in early 2023, with his walk percentage up and his strikeout percentage down, although it’s just a few points in each direction. But, progress is progress. Besides, there’s no reason to complain about anything when he’s batting .351 and 12 of his 20 hits have gone for extra-bases, including 6 HR.

All that’s left is for him to start playing the outfield. Since recording three hits in the third game of the season, Mark Canha has a .167/.265/.310 line in his last 49 PA. The Mets need to be grooming Mauricio to be Canha’s replacement, where he can play every day, rather than Luis Guillorme’s replacement, where he might play three times a week.