Pete Alonso and his fantastic start here in 2023

As a rookie in 2019, Pete Alonso got off to a great start. In his first 20 games, he had a .315/.405/.699 line with 7 HR and 18 RBIs. While the slash line isn’t quite as good this year after 20 games – only a 1.024 OPS – it might be a more impressive start. Alonso has 9 HR and 19 RBIS. But what’s really making this year stand out is how he’s doing it. The power in his rookie season was buttressed by an unsustainable BABIP. This year’s start is the exact opposite.

When he burst onto the scene in ’19, Alonso had a .372 BABIP in his first 20 games, which means the hits were falling in to go along with the homers flying out of the park. No one was going to maintain that type of pace over an entire season and Alonso finished the year with a .280 BABIP. He’s been remarkably consistent with that level of output in the category. Skipping the truncated season of 2020, Alonso has put up BABIPs of .274 and .279 the past two campaigns.

Checking in at his numbers this year, we see Alonso with a .255 BABIP. As terrific as his start has been, we can say that he hasn’t had great fortune to go along with the incredible HR output. He’s not going to keep up this rate of hitting homers. But if somehow he did, Alonso would finish the year with 73 HR.

The top six marks for homers in a single season came during the Silly Ball era and were accomplished between 1998-2001. Then there was the 62 HR that Aaron Judge hit last year and the 61 that Roger Maris hit in the expansion season of 1961.

Could Alonso challenge Judge’s mark of last year, which some consider to be the “real” record?

If so, it wouldn’t be the first time that Alonso took aim at Judge. The Yankees slugger set the record for most homers by a rookie when he cracked 52 HR in 2017, breaking a mark that had stood for 30 years. Just two seasons later, Alonso bested Judge when he belted 53 HR. Could history kind of/sort of repeat again between these two players? If Judge is the trailblazer, then Alonso can be the next one to confirm what’s possible.

The greybeards among us can recall back in 1980 when the newspapers ran daily comparisons between Maris’ HR total in 1961 and the Mets total as a team. They finished in a dead heat. It’s amazing to think that the Mets might have a guy – a homegrown one at that! – who can top Maris all by himself.

Home runs are an incredibly valuable thing to produce. But there’s more to the game than hitting home runs. Prior to this year, there seemed to be a cap on what Alonso could provide a team, given that he wasn’t really a big positive in any other category. He was an average to below-average 1B, the least valuable position on the diamond. He was slow. And his non-HR exploits at the plate weren’t anything for which to write home.

But it’s possible the worm is turning.

Keith Hernandez has praised Alonso for how he’s keeping his front shoulder tucked in, not flying open as he’s flailing at pitches. And while his numbers are really good, his “X” numbers, what you would expect to happen given his batted ball profile, exit velocity and launch angle, are even better. Alonso’s hitting .286 but his xBA is .333 and his wOBA is .433 and his xwOBA is .467 – that’s tremendous.

With all that’s gone wrong this year, it’s remarkable that the team is 13-7. You can tick off a few reasons why that’s happened but near the top of the list should be the hitting of Alonso. It’s very early – just 1/8 of the season has been played – but if Alonso keeps performing in this manner, the Mets might have their first MVP in franchise history.

Just imagine what his numbers would look like if the hits were falling in for him.