Kodai Senga and shifting expectations

Expectations are an interesting aspect of human psychology. They can be sky high, subdued, or somewhere in between. They’re sometimes called “premeditated resentments” when there’s a high probability that they won’t be met, which leads to all kinds of disillusioned heartache and regret. At a very basic level, we’re content when they’re met and disappointed when they’re not. Simple, right? Well, what happens when expectations shift unexpectedly?

Enter Kodai Senga.

Despite his substantial success in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball organization and the snazzy “ghost fork” moniker attached to his signature pitch, the hype surrounding Senga was relatively muted compared to NBP stars of the past. There are likely many reasons for this, including the fact that Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were set to lead a team packed with multiple stars and already high expectations, but the Mets organization itself appeared to make it a point to temper initial expectations for Senga even though they clearly liked him enough to take an expensive gamble on him.

So how has his performance compared so far to expectations? About right if you were being realistic about them, though perhaps falling short if you setup a “premeditated resentment” scenario for yourself. “Realistic” in this case may be subjective, of course, but Senga came with fairly well-understood questions that were discussed in the lead up to and after his signing. Namely, in addition to the typical challenges players face when transitioning from the NBP to the MLB, Senga’s control could be inconsistent to the point where walks may be a concern. The overall expectation was that he would certainly need time to adjust. In fact, slow starts have been tabbed as somewhat of a defining characteristic of his career after starting out as a developmental player in Japan.

That concern regarding adjustments and inconsistent control have played out during the first four starts of his MLB career. His performances have progressively gotten worse, with free passes contributing majorly to an unsightly 6.06 FIP and awful 143 -FIP/1.52 WHIP. His strikeout rate remains strong, however, with that ghost fork being as filthy as advertised and accounting for a 54.1% whiff rate. His other pitches have been a mixed bag. Per the screenshot from Statcast below, his fastball has been moderately successful, but his sweeper/slider and cutter have been all but disastrous so far this young season. The vertical movement on those latter two pitches has been above average, but the horizontal movement has been lacking and likely particularly detrimental to the sweeper.

One only needs to reference the below heat maps, again pulled from Statcast, to see that he’s left the cutter and especially the sweeper/slider right out over the plate way too often. As a result, he’s being hit fairly hard in terms of HardHit%, xSLG, Barrel%, and exit velocity. Despite all of that, he’s still somehow managed an only slightly below-average ERA- of 106.

Acknowledging the incredibly small sample size, the numbers to this point do indicate a pitcher with quality stuff that will play at the MLB level but with trouble locating and executing. The ghost fork and fastball (which has an above-average spin rate per Statcast) may comprise the potent combination they appeared to be heading into the start of his MLB career, and in the age of the strikeout that combo could be absolutely devastating. He certainly has work to do in balancing them out with the rest of his arsenal if he wishes to reach even the moderate ceiling of mid-rotation starter some pegged him for heading into the season, though.

Sometimes expectations don’t have to be either good or bad, they simply line up with the reality of the situation. They also don’t have to be time-bound or absolutes, with expectations for the short term and the long term including a range of outcomes. For Senga, a period of adjustment was always the more likely scenario compared to him coming out and dominating on day one.

His mediocre performance so far has been relatively under-the-radar despite his pedigree and the fact that he pitches in a major market. With the Mets’ rotation currently in shambles, however, we may start seeing more scrutiny and print dedicated to assessing his signing if his performance continues to underwhelm and the herculean efforts of the rotation’s depth fall back down to Earth.

Fair or unfair, expectations can shift in the blink of an eye based on circumstance. The Mets were expected to contend at the highest level this year, and the overall quality of the rotation heading into the season meant that Senga could quietly adjust and take his lumps without too much heat directed at his initial results. With Verlander, Carlos Carrasco, and José Quintana continuing to battle injuries and Scherzer suspended (and likely battling health issues of his own), Senga is the only remaining member of the projected 2023 starting rotation still standing less than a month into the season.

One of the aspects of Senga’s character the team was particularly enamored with as they conducted their due diligence before signing him was his resilience. After all, the basis of his career has effectively been a surprising upward momentum spurred by an impressive amount of determination and relentless pursuit of improvement.

There’s little doubt that he has the drive, resolve, and patience to achieve whatever his ceiling may be in MLB. The question is whether or not the fanbase and media can maintain that same level of patience now that he’ll seemingly need to shoulder more of the burden tied to the overall expectations of the team as a whole.