Edwin Uceta and the necessary search for Trevor Williams’ replacement

If we go back 10-15 years ago, we see that MLB relievers as a group had consistently better ERAs than starters, typically in the .25 to .50 range. This occurred despite for the most part that the better pitchers were utilized as starters. It showed the advantage of being asked to pitch seven innings versus being asked to pitch just one inning. But as the game evolved, and starters threw fewer innings and more relievers were called into action, that gap essentially closed.

In 2019, starters had an ERA just .08 higher than relievers and if we looked just at NL pitchers, their ERA was .15 lower than relievers. So far in the early stages of 2023, MLB has reverted back to the trend from a dozen years ago, as relievers have an ERA .47 lower than starters. And the Mets are certainly doing their part in this respect.

After 22 games, Mets starters have a 4.79 ERA while their relievers have a 3.14 mark, which is the second-best mark in the NL and fifth overall. While the team is dealing with the loss of Edwin Diaz, its two main late-inning guys have been terrific. Adam Ottavino and David Robertson have combined for 17.1 IP and 2 ER, both by Ottavino. In this short sample, those two relievers have done even better than 2022 Diaz, who had a 1.31 ERA in 62 IP a season ago.

While not as outstanding as Diaz’ numbers last year, the 2023 Mets are getting even better results from a subsection of their relief corps than their overall 3.14 bullpen ERA. In 29.2 IP they’ve gotten a 2.43 ERA from this group. What’s the defining characteristic of this collection of relievers? They’re the ones who’ve pitched more than an inning in an appearance. Here’s the breakdown:

Date	Pitcher	IP	ER
3/31	Tommy Hunter	2.0	0
4/2	Stephen Nogosek	2.0	0
4/3	Hunter	2.0	5
4/5	John Curtiss	2.0	0
4/8	Curtiss	1.1	0
4/9	Nogosek	3.1	1
4/11	Denyi Reyes	1.1	0
4/12	Robertson	1.1	0
4/14	Dennis Santana	2.1	1
4/15	Drew Smith	1.1	0
4/16	Reyes	2.0	0
4/17	Brooks Raley	1.1	0
4/18	Reyes	1.1	0
4/19	Jimmy Yacabonis	2.2	1
4/22	Edwin Uceta	3.0	0
Totals		29.2	8

The overall numbers are being skewed by Hunter’s outing where he gave up five earned runs. He was put on the IL the next day, although we can certainly debate why. The official reason was back spasms – which also sidelined him last season. Or it could have been a manufactured injury to get a fresh pitcher on the roster. Regardless, if we eliminate that one Hunter appearance, the multi-inning guys have gone 27.2 IP with 3 ER for a 0.98 ERA. That’s outstanding – better than Diaz.

There are two big caveats to go along with the small sample issue here, though. First, there’s a not insignificant amount of time where the pitcher is getting just four or five outs. In six of these 15 outings, the relievers are going fewer than two full innings, likely Buck Showalter’s effort to get the platoon advantage. That move blew up on him a year ago several times but so far has worked out much better this time around.

And the other thing to consider is that there is definitely a “survivor bias” inherent in these numbers. If a reliever gives up three runs in the first inning, he’s likely not coming back out for a second frame. But Hunter did give up all five runs – and two inherited runners scored, too – in his bad outing in the first frame and came back for the second. We’ll call that the exception that proves the rule.

The greybeards among us recall when every team carried a long reliever or two. The youngsters can just recall last year, when Trevor Williams essentially filled that role. A season ago, Williams had 13 relief appearances of at least 2 IP where he allowed 11 ER in 43.1 IP for a 2.28 ERA. Williams left as a free agent and he signed with the Nationals, who promised him a job as a starter. In four games this year, all starts, Williams has a 3.38 ERA, good for a 123 ERA+. Good for him!

While Williams is gone, the need for his role remains. And it’s perhaps an even bigger need now, as Mets starters are regularly going fewer than six innings, with half of their preferred starters on the IL and the healthy ones struggling in one way or another.

Most clubs prefer their relievers to come in and throw as hard as they can for one inning and call it a day. And it’s not like that’s necessarily a bad thing. It’s just that was a better model when starters consistently gave six innings or more. In 22 games this year, Mets SP have gone at least six innings just five times. And only once has a Mets starter thrown a pitch in the seventh, which Joey Lucchesi just accomplished the other day in his first MLB start in nearly two years.

Ideally, a bullpen needs to provide fewer than 20 IP in a week when six games are played. Things get complicated when there are seven or more games in a week, there are extra-inning games and when relievers have to provide 20+ innings week after week. Here’s how it’s been for the Mets in 2023:

Week 1 (3/30-4/5) – 7 games, 23.1 IP
Week 2 (4/6-4/12) – 6 games, 21.2 IP
Week 3 (4/13-4/19) – 6 games, 25.1 IP

Week 3 was bad because of the Max Scherzer ejection, which required six innings from the pen, and it also had an extra-inning game. That’s too many innings needed from the pen right off the bat. We’re currently in Week 4 and this one is shaping up better, with six games and the Lucchesi start.

Longtime readers know my preference for not only having a long man in the bullpen, but to also have multiple ones. Assuming you have pitchers capable of doing it – certainly not a given – my ideal pen would have three relievers capable of pitching two or more innings twice a week. Now, that doesn’t mean they will go long that often – just that they’re able to, if needed.

If you have three relievers who can go long, you can give the necessary rest to pull it off, with the reliever getting at least a day off for each inning he throws. So, if our long guy goes three innings in an appearance, he gets three days off. If he goes three innings on Wednesday, he doesn’t pitch until Sunday.

Showalter has done a great job, ensuring that half the pen hasn’t pitched in three of the last four games. Even with the ultra-heavy workload in Week 3, there were only a few times where that happened. In the past nine games, since the start of Week 3, only two relievers had pitched in three out of four days. Jeff Brigham appeared in three straight while Smith pitched three times in four days. That’s it. The mind shudders to think how it would have been if Terry Collins was still calling the shots.

The Mets were able to do this by adding three pitchers – activating Hunter from the IL and calling up Brigham and Uceta – and by having relievers go long seven times. It’s not feasible to keep calling up multiple relievers week after week. A few years ago, they instituted a rule about how many times you can option a player in one year. So, the Mets either need to bring up a wider range of relievers or try to keep the same guys in the majors for longer.

Which makes having relievers go long an even better strategy.

Reyes did a great job going long and his reward was being sent down to be stretched out as a potential starter. My opinion is that this was a mistake. By the time he’s stretched out, Scherzer will be back from the suspension and hopefully Verlander will be back shortly after that. The need is for multi-inning relievers, not more depth starters.

With Hunter, Nogosek, Reyes, Uceta and Yacabonis, the Mets have several candidates to fill the multi-inning reliever spot. My preference is to see an outing like Saturday, with Uceta going three innings, rather than using three guys for one inning each. It’s obvious there’s a need for the multi-inning reliever given how the SP are faring. My opinion is that there are guys in the pen to fill the role.

The only thing left is to have a commitment to the idea on a regular basis.