Prior to the Mets acquiring Omar Narvaez in mid-December, my hope was that the Mets would ditch either James McCann or Tomas Nido and have Francisco Alvarez make the Opening Day roster for 2023. Aw, who am I kidding? Even after they picked up Narvaez, that was still my hope. My belief was that there was a big enough role available for Alvarez, seeing time at both catcher and DH, to make it worthwhile for him to be in the majors.
But we started hearing about how bad he was defensively and that in order to be able to play in the majors – for the year-in, year-out defensive gods that are the Mets – he would have to make significant improvements with his overall receiving skills. Note they never said what was bad – they just said he wasn’t good and we were supposed to take it as gospel.
Alvarez didn’t get starts at catcher initially in Grapefruit League action. Later, they claimed he was still recovering from offseason ankle surgery. But he eventually made it behind the plate and what did we see? Was he like Mackey Sasser and unable to throw the ball to the pitcher? Did it seem like he was catching a knuckleball pitcher, with the ball always eluding him and too often going to the backstop? Was it an inability to connect with the pitchers, with them always shaking him off?
We didn’t see anything remotely like that.
In an ideal world, the Mets have players who excel in all facets of the game. But when circumstances are not ideal, you want the total of a player’s contributions – offense, defense and baserunning – to be positive. And the total of the Mets’ catchers’ contributions in 2022 left a whole lot to be desired. The Mets liked to play up how good McCann and Nido were defensively last year. And they were good with the glove, even if not quite as good as management believed.
The problem was they couldn’t hit. Like at all. Last year, catchers for the club combined for a .569 OPS. In 1968, the year of the pitcher, when hurlers dominated so much, they lowered the mound the following season to help boost offense, Mets’ catchers put up a .676 OPS. It’s really hard to wrap your head around the fact that the catchers for the 101-win Mets were 107 points of OPS worse than the catchers for the 73-win Mets in the year of the pitcher in 1968.
My belief was that Alvarez’ bat was going to be so good that he would have to be awful to a degree that we’ve never seen before defensively in order to be a downgrade from what the team received from their backstops a season ago. Furthermore, with a guy who was a catcher his entire time as an amateur and professional, the chances Alvarez would be that bad were microscopic. It would be one thing if they were attempting to convert a guy to the position in either the majors or minors. That simply wasn’t the case here.
It seems like sometimes people fall into the trap of declaring players “bad” or “good” with no middle ground or differences within the categories whatsoever. In terms of hitters, a 125 OPS+ and a 175 OPS+ are both good yet we’d all prefer the 175 guy. And just because a player doesn’t put up a triple-digit OPS doesn’t make him useless. Last year, Nido put up a 72 OPS+ while McCann posted a 55. Wouldn’t a 90 OPS+ from the catcher look like a worthwhile upgrade?
It’s the same principle for defense, even if we can’t quite articulate it in the same way.
No one would claim that Alvarez was a Gold Glove-type defender. Yet, there’s a pretty large area between Gold Glove and useless. And in my opinion, everyone from the front office to the mainstream press to a whole bunch of fans made no distinction here whatsoever. In a time where we needed to apply some critical thinking and ask specific questions, instead we just heard a declarative statement from the team with no pushback at all from other parties.
What specifically makes his defense unplayable in the majors?
What kind of instruction would he receive in a few months at Triple-A that would make his defense improve so dramatically?
On a relative basis, was Alvarez’ defense worse than Nido’s career offense in MLB?
These – and others – were questions that needed to be asked and answered truthfully. If not to the press, at least among the powerholders in the team hierarchy. It’s difficult to believe that nobody in the Mets’ beefed-up analytics department didn’t rant and rave about the pitfalls of carrying catchers who couldn’t hit. And that maybe Narvaez and his 71 OPS+ a season ago wasn’t exactly the answer, even if it was an upgrade on McCann.
Just because someone says something, it doesn’t make it true. And how many times have we seen this with the Mets and a player’s defensive aptitude? We were told Juan Lagares would be stretched in center field. We were told that Michael Conforto was a liability in the field. We were told that Pete Alonso was so bad defensively that he probably couldn’t hack it with a glove, even at first base. Yet none of those turned out to be true. So, in 2023 we were just supposed to believe that Alvarez was a trainwreck defensively because it was declared from up high?!? Why on earth would we just take that on faith?
We’ve seen Alvarez up close defensively for a few games now. He certainly doesn’t look as good as Nido behind the plate. He makes some plays that make you shake your head. And teams have been successful running against him. Alvarez is clearly not a great defender. But at no point has his defense been so bad that you wished Nido was in the game instead of him. Because, you know, Nido can’t hit. His hitting was bad previously and it’s been even worse this year. In the short sample so far of 2023, Alvarez’ defense >> Nido’s offense.
Perhaps the best thing we can say is that Alvarez’ time in Syracuse was so brief that no one can even hint that his time in Triple-A made the difference for him defensively. This is who he is. Alvarez is below average defensively but more than playable if he hits.
His first time up as a hitter in 2023, Alvarez delivered an RBI single to right field. And then he did his best Nido impression. He went hitless in his next 14 ABs, thanks to an over-aggressive approach at the plate, combined with sporadic playing time. But since then, his approach has improved and his playing time has increased. In his last nine games, Alvarez is batting .320 with an .826 OPS. The hits are falling in – few expect him to hit .320 – but there’s more power than we’ve seen to date.
It’s going to be great fun to see how Alvarez develops as a hitter. Buck Showalter is batting both of his rookies lower in the batting order to help them get acclimated to the majors. It’s the right move now but at some point, they’ll both need to move up to higher spots in the lineup. Is Brett Baty the team’s number-three hitter in two months? Is Alvarez batting fifth behind Alonso at that point, too? It’s possible that’s where they both belong.
It’s unfortunate that it took an injury to Narvaez to get Alvarez to the majors. But it’s given everyone the chance to see firsthand that his defense is not as bad as what was alleged. And while it’s far from a perfect measure, let’s note some numbers for when Alvarez and Nido have been behind the plate:
FA – 14 G, 99 Innings, 4.18 cERA, .682 OPS allowed, 9 HR .284 BABIP
TN – 16 G, 117 INN, 4.38 cERA, .768 OPS allowed, 27 HR .256 BABIP
Perhaps Alvarez has just been more fortunate with the pitchers he’s caught, like Monday when he was not paired with Denyi Reyes. But there’s nothing in this profile to suggest that he’s been a disaster behind the plate. If anything, we should be worried about the *27* HR that have occurred while Nido is catching.
With Baty and Alvarez in the lineup and producing, it just becomes that much more lengthy and dangerous and gives you a lot of options based on matchups. Baty could hit anywhere from 2-7. Alvarez could bat cleanup if Pete ever took a day off, or anywhere else in the lower half of the lineup 4-9. It would also put someone like Canha who’s best attribute is OBP, in the 9 hole to help turnover the lineup, rather than in an RBI spot like 5-7. What I’d like to see on a semi-regular basis…
Nimmo
McNeil (vs righties), Marte (vs lefties)
Lindor
Alonso
Baty
Marte/McNeil
Alvarez
Vogey/Vientos
Canha/Pham/Guillorme etc
Vogey/Vientos in the 8 hole? Good luck navigating multiple innings in a row without traffic and runs. Now if our pitching could get straightened out…
I’m grateful for all comments.
My sincere hope is we can talk about catcher defense and management BS and what Alvarez might do offensively and a host of other things besides lineup placement.
yep understood. Here’s a stat I saw this morning concerning Alvarez’s defense:
Here are the catchers with the highest called strike rate on non-swing pitches in the Shadow Zone (essentially the edges of the strike zone) this season:
Cam Gallagher: 55.7%
Austin Hedges: 54.4%
Joey Bart: 54.3%
Matt Thaiss: 53.4%
Francisco Álvarez: 53.2%
That’s a great comment.
From what I had read, the defensive pros for Alvarez was that he had a strong arm and that he did a good job framing. The numbers you posted certainly support the latter. The concerns were how he would handle a veteran pitching staff and would he be good enough with wild pitches and passed balls.
The SB numbers against him are alarming. My take is that he does have a strong arm but he’s a little mechanical getting into his throwing motion, like he’s counting the steps in his head. That being said, a fair number of those steals Johnny Bench could have been behind the plate and it wouldn’t have mattered.
I believe it’s extremely difficult — and probably impossible for casual fans — to assess a catcher’s defensive ability in any kind of nuanced, informed way.
But one thing we keep hearing about Alvarez is his “improvement.” His work ethic. His youth and relative inexperience.
All the comments about his improvement suggest pretty powerfully that his “old” defense — last year, last month, last week — left something to be desired. And also that no pitchers or teammates are *ever* going to say that out loud. Nobody is going to bury the kid.
To me, from what I can see, it looks playable. Let him improve on the field. I think he should start 65% of the games behind the plate. If the bat comes around — the hitting also looks very raw — he might even DH on some of those days when he’s not catching.
His short-term future, 2023, is in his hands. He needs to outplay Tomas Nido.
Coming into this season, with the offense essentially standing pat, I felt that any of the (necessary) improvement would have to come from Baty and Alvarez. If they could contribute, like Harris and Grissom last year for the Braves, the offense would take a leap forward. We are fortunate that both got up with the big club as early as April. This gives them time to develop, to struggle, to fail, and yet still succeed this season. These two guys are the free variables amidst a lineup on constants: Nimmo, Marte, Lindor, Alonso, McNeil. We more or less know what we are getting with those guys. These two rookies are the key. Will they develop fast enough? I’m hopeful.
We shall see.
Thank you for this comment!
I agree with a lot of what you say here, certainly the last several paragraphs. As you said, the biggest thing is that Alvarez and Baty got here early and appear to be getting a fair shot at playing time. And that’s certainly what I hoped for – a fair shot.
My belief was that the two players were not getting a fair shot – Alvarez more so than Baty – over perceived issues defensively. And that was certainly the case with both guys being sent to the minors instead of making the Opening Day roster.
I certainly hope that all clubs, but especially the Mets, have the ability to grade things better than me and what’s available in the public domain. Yet it’s my belief that those improvements are on the margins rather than something that would 100% refute what an informed outsider would believe.
My opinion was that Alvarez would be a below-average defensive catcher but one who would hit enough to make his total package considerably better than what Tomas Nido could give the club. There’s been nothing in this brief time in the majors that made me think that the additional knowledge the Mets had about catcher defense in general and Francisco Alvarez in particular made any significant difference compared to my original assessment.
Nice piece. I too have felt that Alvarez needed to be here but when they picked up Narvaez that ensured he would start the season at Syracuse, I rationalized that Buck must know a little more than I do. Great points on Conforto and Alonso who many were sure would never overcome their defensive liabilities. I like how he and Baty have progressed and how their bats came around. We need those HR bats. Love that the kids are still hot down at Syracuse. At some point we will need them.
Perceptive commentary. I’m hoping Alvarez can hit .800 OPS for his Mets career so we can out the offensive sinkhole of C to bed for a long time. No Mets catcher has done that since Piazza. It’s been an offensive blackhole since at least LoDuca.
Thanks to you, 6986 and Steve_S for the kind words!
Not a Lo Duca fan. He was a singles hitter who had the hits fall in for him in ’06. He was Josh Thole with one year of better luck. I look forward to a bunch of XBH from Alvarez.
Terrific article, Brian.
I still remember when Conforto came up, we were hearing about his poor defensive abilities, and were surprised when he was pretty good out there. Alonso has improved defensively, and his batting is key anyway.
Same with Alvarez, who blocks pitches, frames well, and calls a good game. Surprise! His arm is very good, so I’m guessing that he will throw out a few more runners trying to steal. But (as “they” always said) most stolen bases are due to the pitcher.
I agree with your and Brian’s assessment, Alvarez is allright defensive catcher. He’s very young, has a strong arm and when he gets experience and knowledge he will improve.
Back in 2014, I saw the Savannah Sand Gnats (Mets Team) play the Asheville Tourists in a playoff game. Conforto was just drafted that June. Was promoted to play in the playoff game from St Lucie Mets. For some reason, he was thought of as a poor outfielder from the scouts that drafted him. In this game he was sensational in the Outfield with two strong throws and a running catch. At that time, I posted a comment in the blog for what I saw. I didn’t think the scouts were right, just like your comment today said. Alvarez (and Baty, for that matter) will improve with experience.
For me, the jury is still very much out about Alvarez defense.
But I think he should play and grow and hopefully become good-enough back there.
There’s so much defensively that goes into being a catcher. The way you set up, hold your glove, flash the signs, receive the ball, call a game, read the hitters, and on and on. A strong arm is essential but you’ve also got to get the ball out of your hand.
And if a pitcher is less comfortable, less confident, or even mildly irritated, I think it matters. A great catcher makes the job easier. A bad one, conversely, makes it harder.
I’m very much in favor of playing him a lot and I’m hoping it works. But I don’t think we *know* how to assess it fully, especially based on less than 10 games; it’s wishful thinking to pronounce him “fine” based on what little we’ve seen and what little we know.
One thing John from Albany and I did a deep dive on while watching the Cyclones was Alvarez and where his defense was weakest. John, who had watched Alvarez more recently live (AAA) noted that Alvarez’s arm was average and his receiving was okay for the most part. His concern had to do with balls in the dirt. Since hearing this note from John I’ve been paying attention to Alvarez when the ball hits the dirt and I haven’t noticed anything glaring there either. I think the Mets should have had Alvarez behind the plate for both games yesterday and played Nido today. I think that heartbreaking opener would have gone our way if we didn’t have the offensive void in the lineup.