Francisco Alvarez ROY candidate, Max Scherzer gets untracked, Brooks Raley and LHB

Francisco Alvarez continues to impress. Gary Cohen and Keith Hernandez are leading the hype train, saying something positive about his defense in nearly every game. Last night he made a truly terrific play, fielding a ball fired into the dirt by Justin Verlander and applying the tag on the runner trying to score from third. Many assumed that throwing was going to be the best part of his defense but if anything, that might be the weakest link so far. He’s made some poor throws to first base and several times he’s dropped the ball while trying to throw to second. But he’s been an asset behind the plate. All of the people who were so eager to slap the “bad defense” label on him are being mighty quiet these days.

And after a slow start at the plate, Alvarez has been every bit as good at the bat as advertised. He smacked a single in his first trip to the plate this season and then proceeded to go hitless his next 14 PA, complete with six strikeouts. But since April 19, a span of 93 PA, he’s slashing .310/.376/.631, with 7 HR in 84 AB. Alvarez has gotten his strikeouts under control, too. Since 4/19, he has a 19.4 K%, which is a terrific mark for a guy providing the power he does. And he’s 21.

While it’s very early to be talking about these things, Alvarez is positioning himself for Rookie of the Year honors. There’s yet to be a pitcher in the NL stamp himself as a serious candidate, although there’s plenty of time for that to change. Among hitters, Arizona’s Corbin Carroll has been just about as productive as Alvarez while holding the playing time edge. But Alvarez doing what he’s done while (at least) holding his own defensively as a catcher is pretty amazing. Cincinnati’s Matt McLain is the only rookie with a higher OPS+ than Alvarez, but he has less than half the plate appearances. It could be a fun race among three highly touted prospects.

CREAM RISES TO THE TOP – It’s been anything but a smooth ride for Max Scherzer here the first two months of the season. He’s dealt with several nagging injuries and a suspension for violating rules on using sticky substances that seemed capricious at best and a targeted smear campaign at worst. All of that led to a 5.56 ERA after his fifth start of the season, which was a blowout to the lowly Tigers where he allowed 6 ER in 3.1 IP.

But in his last three starts, we’ve seen the Scherzer of old. He’s 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in 18 IP, with 3 BB and 19 Ks. Just as importantly, he’s allowed just 1 HR, compared to the 6 HR he served up in his first 22.2 IP this year. The Mets are 6-2 in games started by Scherzer this season and they’re undefeated in games where he gives up one home run or fewer.

ESCOBAR TURNS IT AROUND FROM A SLOW START – The 2023 season got off to a rough start for Eduardo Escobar and he lost his starting job just three weeks into the campaign. But in his last 35 PA, Escobar has quietly put up some impressive numbers. He’s slashing .375/.429/.719, with 3 HR. It’s mostly flown under the radar because his playing time has been so sporadic.

In my mind Mark Canha and Escobar are joined at the hip. They’re the same age, were signed by the Mets in the same offseason at similar two-year deals and both players had their 2022 numbers greatly influenced by a six-week hot streak. And Escobar’s surge has brought him near even with Canha in production this year. Canha sits with an 88 OPS+ while Escobar has an 87 OPS+. Yet Canha plays nearly every day while Escobar scrounges for playing time. It seems backwards.

LEFTY RALEY HAS BEEN ALL RIGHT WHEN NOT FACING LEFTIES – Brooks Raley didn’t get off to a great start with the Mets. In his third outing of the year, he threw two gopher balls and allowed four runs. But since that point, Raley’s been terrific, with a 1.26 ERA and a 0.977 WHIP in 14.1 IP, while holding opposing hitters to a .586 OPS. The only blip in that period came when he allowed a two-run homer versus the Nationals, in his last appearance before going on the IL.

The Mets’ only lefty for most of the year, Raley has face almost as many LHB (35) as RHB (36) to date. The problem is that lefties are raking against him. LHB have a .971 OPS against him, with five of their nine hits going for extra-bases, including three homers. He’s allowed as many homers as he did all of last year, despite throwing fewer than one-third of the innings of a season ago. But if you don’t homer against him, chances are you’re not scoring. It will be interesting to see if that’s a tradeoff worth making as the season progresses.

LINEUPS! LINEUPS! LINEUPS! – Fans love discussing lineups and no doubt it’s fun comparing our individual ideas in this regard to what Buck Showalter fills out each day. But at the end of the day, there’s not a ton of difference as long as you’re not actively trying to get the worst lineup possible. Essentially, if you put high OBP guys in the first two spots of the lineup, you’re 90% of the way home.

Most of us are eager to see Showalter move Alvarez out of the ninth spot and into the heart of the order. We’d probably tinker with other spots, too. Many of you have shared what you’d do if Showalter put you in charge.

But let’s do something new. Let’s assume a RHP is starting and Canha, Marte and Daniel Vogelbach are all playing. Give me the worst lineup possible in your estimation. Here’s mine:

Marte
Canha
Lindor
Vogelbach
McNeil
Nimmo
Baty
Alvarez
Alonso