Drew Smith shows how relievers bunch outings where they give up runs

Drew Smith has allowed runs in six of his last nine outings and has an 8.64 ERA in this span. It’s been tough to stomach, especially as the team’s grand plan was to have five reliever locks and three guys to cycle thru in the back end with the ability to move them up and down as needed. Smith was counted as one of those reliever locks, despite the fact that he had never pitched more than 46 innings in any year in the majors, which is roughly two-thirds of a season.

Terrible bullpen construction aside, what Smith is going thru right now is pretty standard fare for a reliever. For whatever reason, relievers tend to bunch their bad outings together. Even the best closers. It’s not like a stud reliever goes six scoreless outings, gives up a run and then goes seven outings unscored upon and then gives up another run and then repeats that pattern throughout the year. Instead, it’s more likely to have a streak, usually 6-12 games, where they just get lit up, much like Smith is experiencing now.

The 2022 Mets had five relievers appear in at least 40 games last year. Here are their overall numbers and their rough patch.

Adam Ottavino – 2.06 ERA in 65.2 IP. 4/23-5/4, 6 games, 12.60 ERA
Seth Lugo – 3.60 ERA in 65 IP. 9/11-10/2, 9 games, 6.97 ERA
Edwin Diaz – 1.31 ERA in 62 IP. 5/12-5/24, 6 games, 6.35 ERA
Joely Rodriguez – 4.47 ERA in 50.1 IP. 6/6-7/24. 12 games, 9.00 ERA
Smith – 3.33 ERA in 46 IP. 6/29-9/21, 9 games, 9.31 ERA

If you think it’s unfair to count the span by Smith that included an IL stint, he also had a 6-game stretch from 5/13-5/24 where he had a 9.00 ERA. Which is a nice illustration that a reliever can have more than one bad streak in a season.

As great as Diaz’ season was last year, even he bunched outings together. He only allowed 9 ER all season and four of them came in a six-game stretch.

So, we know about Smith – how are the other 2023 relievers doing in this regard?

Ottavino – 10 games, 8.2 IP, 7 ER
Smith – 9 games, 8.1 IP, 8 ER
Brooks Raley – Yet to have a bad stretch
David Robertson – 9 games, 10.1 IP, 5 ER
Stephen Nogosek – 9 games, 16.2 IP, 14 ER
Jeff Brigham – 9 games, 8.1 IP, 6 ER
Tommy Hunter – 8 games, 16 IP, 14 ER
Dominic Leone – 10 games, 11.1 IP, 8 ER

And what’s killing the Mets is that five of these relievers are in a rough patch right now. And that’s not counting Hunter, who gave up a run last night, or Leone, whose had one scoreless outing following that 10-game stretch noted above.

What the club will have to ask and answer is how many of the current relievers are just going thru a rough stretch that every reliever goes thru and how many of them just aren’t MLB quality. It’s likely that Robertson and Ottavino will soon start stringing a bunch of good outings together. But how many of the rest do you feel confident will do the same?

Brigham, Nogosek and Smith have never pitched a full season in the majors and have no track record of success that we can take seriously. Hunter is 36 and hasn’t pitched more than 25 innings in the majors since 2018. This is Leone’s 10th year in the majors and he’s had three good seasons – 2014, 2017 and 2021.

The Mets are in a position where they have to hope that Brigham and Smith are capable of being league-average relievers over a full season. But it’s time to give up the ghost with Hunter and Nogosek. The problem is that with the possible exception of Zach Muckenhirn, there’s no one at Triple-A pitching well enough to make you think he could make a difference in Queens. And before you suggest that the team look at the waiver wire, that’s where they got Leone and Dennis Santana and those two have combined for 14 ER in 23 IP.

The other good thing about Muckenhirn is that as a lefty, Buck Showalter could use him to retire LHB and use Raley as a regular reliever. Yesterday, Raley faced five batters and retired the three RHB he faced and gave up hits to the two lefties. And Showalter removed him mid-inning because a righty was coming up. Here are Raley’s splits this year:

vs RHB – 45 PA, .154/.267/.256
vs LHB – 47 PA, .310/.362/.524

The Mets need a reliever who can pitch multiple innings. Perhaps they can bring up either Joey Lucchesi or David Peterson to fill that role. My preference would be Lucchesi but it’s not like either one has been overly impressive this year.

Coming into the season, the bullpen was thought to be the biggest potential weakness. And it has indeed been disappointing to this point, even if the SP is a bigger problem right now. Smith ending his rough patch and returning to be a dependable reliever would be a huge help. But even if that comes to pass, they still need at least two different relievers than who are currently on the roster.

And for all things holy, Billy Eppler can not be allowed to assemble a bullpen that prioritizes options over talent ever again.