Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil and Daniel Vogelbach are disappointing everyone with their lack of power. Francisco Lindor is hitting for power but is leaving everyone wondering where the singles are. The struggles of those four players have kept the attention away from Brett Baty, which is something for which the rookie should be grateful.
Baty came up in mid-April and hit the ground running. He hit safely in eight of his first 11 games with the Mets and sported a nifty .938 OPS. But it’s been mostly downhill since then. In his last 135 PA, Baty has a .195/.289/.288 line. It’s never a good thing, especially for a corner player, to have a higher OBP than SLG. Yes, Baty has displayed a very good eye at the plate, even while struggling. But 7 XBH in 135 PA is not good.
In Wednesday’s Open Thread, we lamented Marte’s .073 ISO. Baty has a .117 ISO overall and a .093 ISO after his hot start. The MLB ISO this year checks in at .161, meaning Baty is 44 points below average in the category.
Everyone had their pitchforks out and was calling the Mets’ decision makers unflattering names because they didn’t put Baty on the Opening Day roster and Eduardo Escobar got off to a slow start. Escobar had just a .402 OPS after 53 PA, prompting the Mets to call up Baty and make him the team’s regular third baseman.
Baty hasn’t been as bad as Escobar was at the beginning of the year. But he’s also been sub-Plaweckian for over 2.5X the length as Escobar’s poor start. And Baty’s essentially gotten a free pass for his lousy play. Meanwhile, in his last 58 PA, Escobar is slashing .333/.379/.556 – good for a .935 OPS, in a span just slightly bigger than his poor start to begin the year.
It turns out that 53 PA was enough for Escobar to lose his job but 58 PA isn’t enough to get it back.
The Mets are in an impossible situation here. Baty is clearly the future, while Escobar is nearing the end of his Mets’ tenure. Removing Baty from the starting lineup at this point wouldn’t exactly be a vote of confidence for one of the players the team is hoping to build around going forward. But when the majority of the team is struggling and one of the few potential upgrades plays the same spot as your under-performing rookie – what do you do?
Every player goes thru hot and cold stretches and generally, you don’t want to overreact to some 50-PA streak. But Baty’s scuffling is reaching the point of being three times as large. The Mets don’t have to make a move at this point. But they absolutely should be having internal discussions for when that point is. Also, they’ll need to determine if a trip back to the minors would do more harm than good for his development.
Us armchair GMs are always quick to criticize the real decision makers when they make a move we don’t like. But what happens when the GM gives in and gives the wolves the fresh meat they crave and that doesn’t quite work out, either?
It’s my opinion that Escobar needs to play more, while Baty needs fewer ABs. But it doesn’t have to be a straight trade. There’s playing time at DH and even 2B for Escobar. Mark Canha has started to produce and Marte has been hitting some singles, meaning there’s likely less playing time at 2B than there was earlier. But McNeil could likely use some time off, meaning Escobar could directly sub in at second, rather than requiring an OF to sit in order to keep McNeil’s bat in the lineup.
In an ideal world, you run the same lineup out there most every game, just giving the starters an occasional day off. But that’s not where the Mets are here in 2023. Buck Showalter is already playing the hot hand by correctly giving more playing time to Tommy Pham. But in addition to that, Showalter needs to find more at-bats for Escobar and Mark Vientos, too.
And just to throw another potential monkey wrench into the static lineup, Ronny Mauricio just hit two more homers. After getting some reps in at second base, Mauricio is now adding outfield starts to his resume. Mauricio’s power bat and defensive versatility make him a better roster option right now than either Luis Guillorme or Vogelbach.
The part that no one is saying out loud is wondering if those two players are more valuable as bench pieces than Baty.
Baty is struggling and batting him 5th only puts pressure on the rookie. His struggles should reduce his playing time.
Escobar can do well vs LHP. Even though he was horrible in his first 53 at bats but he did have a September to remember. He is a team player and a veteran that there should have been some leeway before benching him. In the beginning, him and Baty should have been a platoon. Showalter mishandled both players. He can rectify his misjudgment by splitting the playing time at third base. Escobar should also have some DH at bats and play some second base instead of when Guillorme gets the start. Baty needs the pressure off and Escobar needs more at bats.
“Everyone had their pitchforks out and was calling the Mets’ decision makers unflattering names because they didn’t put Baty on the Opening Day roster”
Not everyone.
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The fact is this is a tough game and hitting is near impossible unless Drew Peterson is pitching. Once pitchers saw what Baty was like they managed to figure him out. Its also possible for him to be the future at the hot corner and someone that needs more seasoning in AAA. No crime there. If he cant handle that, then he surely cant handle the grind of every day in the bigs. The Mets have a bit of a record of getting in trouble and promoting people too early to fill a hole.
Baty has a grand total of 68 PAs in AA with about 1.000 OPS and now with about 2.5x more PAs in the bigs, his OPS is a sad .659. I dont believe for one second that Baty was battle hardened ready for major league play after 15 total AAA games. Maybe the rare future HoFers can pull that off, but even talented folks struggle. Even Michael Harris II, the poster child for AA –> MLB after his RoY season has fallen off a cliff to a sad .648 OPS (73 OPS+) and will really need to turn the corner just to make 1 fWAR for the season after last years 5.3 fWAR.
The same is true for Vientos, who ran up gaudy numbers (OPS > .900) in AA and AAA after a lot of games played in both and now has a very sad .500 OPS in the Bigs after about 100 PA in 2 seasons. I think we should be braced for Mauricio to face similar issues, particularly so because hes a free swinger. At least Baty has a good eye as you mentioned.
Getting back to the question at hand, the Mets are rapidly approaching a fork in the road where there is belief in the architecture of the team and to “double down” as buyers this summer, at which point some of the kids may need to go back to school for the rest of the year *or* they promote all of them and let them play out the season in order to figure out how to sink or swim with the bright lights on.
One thing is for sure, the difficulties are very noticeable – this isnt the minor leagues.
The Mets aren’t too far off of the wild card spot. I like Baty, but he looks a little lost up there. Maybe the Mets should be buyers and sellers at the deadline. I don’t want to see any of the youngsters get traded for a rental, but if they can improve the team, then great.
McNeil looks like he is playing pickle ball at the plate. Just trying to seat at it and now that the shortstop is planning shortstop again, his average is down .50 points with no power. I might be ok with McNeil if he stole 35 bases a year.
At this stage and with the lack of production of others, perhaps it’s just time to let the Baby Mets play everyday, and that includes Vientos. There will always be growing pains but what better way to assess their value up to the trade deadline. And I’m baffled at why Mauricio has not been called up, now that he is back playing. Last year we could afford bringing in some D in the late innings. This year we rarely have a lead to defend. What a difference a year makes. Three with Houston and three with the Phillies up after that. What are waiting for?