Where do the Mets go from here?

It was a tough week of poor pitching and a lack of timely hitting that has brought us to this turning point in the season.  Max Scherzer disintegrated last Tuesday against the crosstown rivals, and what was worse was with TV blackouts, only the YES network, with Yankee broadcasters, played the game on TV.  Justin Verlander stepped it up in putting the team in position to split the two-game series but not before we got to witness an embarrassing steal of home and base running right out of the Bad News Bears. Tylor Megill threw six strong innings in clamping down the Cardinals, but it went downhill after that suffering through two inconsistent starts from Kodai Senga and Carlos Carrasco.   Last night was a refreshing game with the bats coming alive and Scherzer throwing a gem.  Even Daniel Vogelbach is on a hitting streak and Francisco Lindor has 50 RBI.

Met fans cling to the positive but the negative is staring us in the face.  Again, it’s simple – lack of timely hitting and inconsistent pitching. What a difference a year makes. On 6/18/2022 the record was 44-23, series wins happened on a regular basis and we even swept some series.  The Mets were rarely out of any game. On 6/18/2023 the record was 33-38, with nearly every series lost and a propensity to fall behind and never catch up.  The stats don’t lie.

Let’s look at the June 18, 2022, vs. June 18, 2023, hitting comparison. Batting average is not the best of indicators but is an easy calculation to understand and the comparison below adds OPS, a much more up to date tool, into the mix. Only Brandon Nimmo has shown improvement and the heart of the order, except for Pete Alonso, is dramatically worse. Last year the Mets were leading the league in batting average and this year the bottom of the pack is within sight.

Player            6/18/22            6/18/23

Nimmo          .266/.778         .287/.820

Marte            .283/.773         .255/.639

Lindor            .243/.748         .213/.715

Alonso           .279/.907         .227/.857

McNeil           .324/.834         .272/.699

Canha            .298/.792         .245/.732

Escobar         .233/.690         .234/.696

Vogelbach    .255/.830         .208/.664

Clearly, from an offensive standpoint, not much has gone well, except for Lindor and Alonso’s power numbers.  Without those two the Mets might be trailing the Nationals.

On the pitching side of the equation, we use ERA as the comparative tool.

Player                        6/18/22                    6/18/23

Verlander                 1.75 (Astros)            4.40

Scherzer                   2.29                           4.45

Carrasco                   3.96                           6.34

Quintana                  2.93                           Incomplete

Senga                         1.89 (Japan)             3.53

Peterson                   3.60                           5.12

Megill                         5.01                           4.83

Hard to explain the total explosion in ERA that has transformed one of the top preseason rotation picks, into a pack of old, misfit toys. It is clear to see that with no exceptions, the starting staff is allowing way too many runs this year.  The two aces got old in a hurry and the two youngest pitchers continue to alternate between belonging on the squad and looking like AA pitchers. The bullpen has often needed to pitch more than four innings to close out a game and they have alternated between looking great and looking awful.

As the season starts to slip away, how long a rope is given for players to start playing up to at least their career averages and start winning games?  Is waiting for the trade deadline too late?  Can they snag some MLB talent off the teams heading nowhere this year like the Cardinals, Royals, White Sox, A’s, and the Rockies? The roster needs help now.

Let’s start by getting rid of Vogelbach (.664 OPS) and Luis Guillorme (.655 OPS).  Yes, they’ve had a few good games recently, but they are limited fringe players.  This would not even be a discussion if the big guy had showed us more in the first 60 plus games and if the backup infielder could hit.  Bring up Ronny Mauricio and worst-case scenario, let him DH and back up Lindor. Mark Vientos never got a real shot to play enough and with Tommy Pham on fire, he might just have to wait a bit longer down at Syracuse where the story is he needs to work on his fielding.  Seems he had a great fielding game at 1B subbing for Alonso.  Love Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez and there needs to be patience as they  grow into their starting roles.  They are part of the long game.

If we continue to spiral, do we approach the deadline as buyers or sellers?  Will a team pay big dollars for a David Robertson, or a Jeff McNeil, or hold your breath, Pete Alonso, as we try to remake this team?  Would Mark Canha or Starling Marte make a pretender into a contender? Are the Mets really a few players from the promised land or are we kidding ourselves?

The sports pundits talk about dumping Buck Showalter to fire up the team and point to the Phillies dumping their manager last year as the impetus for their march to the world series. Perhaps that was the impetus for the Phillies’ success, or perhaps they just finally decided to put on their big boy pants and play up their potential.

It is clear as Met fans we want the Mets to get their act together and start playing up to their potential. There are a lot of games left, and perhaps a winning streak would be the magic potion to moving forward.  No delusions of catching the Braves who are far and above a better team, but a wild card spot is still in play.  Let’s go for it.