Kodai Senga’s growth, taming Kyle Schwarber, return from Eduardo Escobar deal

Prior to the start of the 2023 season, FanGraphs’ Depth Charts, which acts as a conglomeration of all of the projection systems posted at the site, had Kodai Senga with a forecast of 160 IP and a 3.60 ERA. As we close in on the mid-point of the season, Senga has 76.2 IP and a 3.52 ERA, making that projection look really good. But what’s interesting is how Senga got to this point.

In his first five games of the season, Senga had 26 IP with a 4.15 ERA. And he was being hampered by the things that have haunted nearly all Mets hurlers this year – walks and strikeouts. Senga had 18 BB and 5 HR in those 26 IP, which is a 6.2 BB/9 and a 1.7 HR/9. It’s kind of remarkable that the Mets won four of those games and that Senga’s ERA was as good as it was. He had a 5.39 FIP in this stretch.

But in his next nine starts, Senga has 50.2 IP with a 3.20 ERA. He still gives up more walks than you’d like – 26 – but in nearly double the innings, he gave up one fewer homer. In his last nine games, Senga improved his BB/9 to 4.6 and his HR/9 to 0.7 – a full homer lower than his rate to start the year.

There was a concern that once teams had more video of Senga pitching in this country that his effectiveness would decrease. But it appears that the opposite is happening. In these last nine starts, where he’s faced 215 batters, opponents have a .193/.293/.310 line with 61 strikeouts. Ideally, there would be a few less walks and a few more innings. But in terms of ERA, Senga is pitching like a low-end SP1 since the beginning of May.

GUILLORME GETS GOING – Few were dismayed when the Mets sent Luis Guillorme to the minors in mid-May, after he posted a .590 OPS despite a .311 BABIP. And nobody was doing cartwheels when the Mets recalled him the second week of June. But since his return, not only has Guillorme been hitting, he’s bringing power, too. In 19 PA, he’s 6-18 with two doubles, a triple and a home run. In this tiny sample, Guillorme has a .333/.368/.722 line. With Danny Mendick now in the majors and capable of playing all three infield spots, too – Guillorme has picked a good time to start producing at the plate.

METS MAKE EARLY DEAL – Mendick got the call to replace Eduardo Escobar, who was traded to the Angels for two minor league pitchers. The Mets picked up the majority of Escobar’s remaining salary – all but the pro-rated minimum – in order to get better prospects. On June 15, FanGraphs released their top prospects for the Angels and had Coleman Crow as their eighth-ranked prospect and Landon Marceaux at 25.

Crow got off to a strong start as a 22 year old in Double-A, with a 1.88 ERA and a 5.17 K/BB rate in four games and 24 IP. But he’s been sidelined with elbow inflammation ever since. The Mets believe the injury is not serious. Crow is not a hard thrower but has plus pitches with both his slider and curve. If he continues to command his pitches, he has a chance to be a starter in the majors.

Marceaux was Crow’s teammate at Double-A and was a third-round pick in 2021 out of LSU. He wasn’t having near the success of Crow, in large part because of an 11.0 H/9 rate. He has a very similar repertoire as Crow – not overpowering but with two different breaking balls. Marceaux doesn’t have as much swing-and-miss stuff as Crow. It will be interesting to see if the Mets tweak his pitches any in an effort to keep him as a starter.

THE WORM TURNS IN METS V SCHWARBER – Few players have ever had the success versus the Mets that Kyle Schwarber had in 2021. That year, in 42 PA, Schwarber belted 9 HR, leading to an incredible .395/.452/1.158 line. He continued his hot hitting the early part of 2022, too, adding three more homers. But since May 27 last year, Schwarber is now 6-46 against the Mets, with 18 Ks after Saturday’s 3-strikeout game. After the 1.610 OPS in 42 PA in 2021, Schwarber has a .130/.259/.196 line in his last 54 PA against New York.

SECRET OF MY SUCCESS – Much has been made here and elsewhere about the Mets’ record when their starter goes at least six innings. After Max Scherzer reached that mark in yesterday’s victory, the Mets are now an incredible 21-3 on the season when their starter goes six innings. But there’s another metric to watch as a barometer, even if not as eye-popping as the six-inning line.

Everyone knows that the Mets have struggled with the gopher ball this year. They’ve allowed 105 HR in 76 games or 1.38 HR per game, which has led to a 35-41 record. Yet when the Mets do better than their average in HR/G – meaning they give up either 1 or 0 HR – their record is 28-17.

It’s not exactly rocket science to declare that a key to victory is not to let the other team pound you into submission with homers. But that .622 winning percentage when they allow fewer than two homers per game is the ballpark of what the Mets will need overall going forward over the final 86 games if they hope to make a playoff run.

To finish the year with 87 wins, the total that last year’s third NL Wild Card team had, the Mets will need to go 52-34 the rest of the way, which is a .605 winning percentage.