Another lost season. It’s almost not possible. Heading out of Spring Training there was such hope and optimism – almost certainty – that these Mets would be really good. Contenders for the World Series. A stacked lineup. Wonderful starting pitching. An awesome bullpen. What could go wrong?
Everything.
We’ll start with Edwin Diaz in the World Baseball Classic. The most Mets thing ever: the best closer in baseball suffers an injury while jumping up and down. Mets’ GM Billy Eppler constructed a relief corps from the ninth inning back – exactly as one should – with Diaz holding down the end of games and really capable relievers manning innings 6-8. David Robertson, Drew Smith, Adam Ottavino and Brett Raley were never supposed to work high leverage situations at the end of games. The Diaz injury means that everyone is miscast in their role. Throw in the fact that there are times when Buck Showalter is forced to go with AAA bullpen arms, and the number one culprit for the reason the Mets are bordering on 10 games under .500 is the inability to put games away. The loss to the Phillies – ahead 6-3 in the eighth only to lose 7-6 on two walks and a HBP – was reminiscent of vintage Mets 1982.
The starters have been underwhelming, too. Justin Verlander began the season on the IL and, while he has shown flashes of brilliance, he has not been last year’s Cy Young Award winner. The awful thing here is that the Mets signed Verlander in the wake of Jacob deGrom going to the Texas Rangers. We must all bow our heads in silence at the great and masterful deGrom having to undergo his second UCL surgery. For all he did for us, we wish him well.
Another starter who has been MIA, Jose Quintana, appears ready to join the team – a half a season too late. Carlos Carasco has been awful this year. Last season he had long stretches of quality pitching. This year he hasn’t thrown back-to-back good games. Kodai Senga has been fun to watch at times, but really more of a fourth starter than a number two or three. Sixth and seventh starters David Peterson and Tylor Megill have been inconsistent and frustrating to watch. Max Scherzer has been the best of the lot, but even he has had his spotty starts. It’s hard not to blame Jeremy Hefner for the failings of this staff. If one or two players have a bad stretch, you chalk that up to bad luck. When it’s the entire staff, you have to look at coaching.
The lineup, other than Brandon Nimmo, has been a complete disappointment. Francisco Lindor has more extra base hits (34) than singles (31). The problem with these statistics is that his BA is under .225 and his OBP is .305 – Bud Harrelson’s career OBP was .324 for comparison. Lindor is driving in runs (a notoriously misleading statistic), but they always seem to come at the wrong time. For instance, in the above-mentioned Phillies loss, Lindor struck out with the bases loaded and one out. In his next at-bat he crushed a ball over the right field wall.
Pete Alonso has had an Alonso year – 24 HR’s – but he’s chasing too many pitches and his .222 BA in the middle of the lineup, combined with Lindor’s lack of consistency, means too many fizzled out rallies. Starling Marte is showing signs of losing a step or two – even though he is stealing bases at a tremendous rate. Jeff McNeil looks like the version we saw in 2021, not the batting champion of 2022. I have written here before that Daniel Vogelbach must be removed from this lineup. Brett Baty has a ways to go, as does Francisco Alvarez – but their presence on the team is a function of poor performance by established players who simply aren’t getting it done. Tommy Pham, an afterthought signing in the off-season, has been the team’s best hitter over the last two months. That is a statement on how bad things have gone so far.
Absent a really hot streak, followed by consistently better play, this team will need to be torn down and rebuilt. Certain players can’t be moved because of their contracts: Lindor and Nimmo come to mind quickly. Others have value as trade chips, Mark Canha, McNeil, any of the starting pitchers, except Senga – whose $25M per year is probably too rich – and Quintana, whose health is a big question mark.
The core of the team – Nimmo, Lindor, Alonso, Baty, Alvarez – has promise. But there simply aren’t enough good players to surround them with either already in the system or on the market. Sadly, Steve Cohen’s dream of “sustained success” may not come to pass any time soon.
That’s baseball. It is hard to be consistent year after year. The opportunity is that they will probably make some big changes. They probably should have made more after last season, especially in the field. It seems that a good part of 2022 was a mirage. Maybe the 2022 team wasn’t as good as their 100 win season and maybe they aren’t as bad as their record shows now.
This team needs to be retooled, not broken down and be rebuilt. Verlander and Scherzer are valuable trade chips. Maybe they can yield a “Beltran for Wheeler” type of trade. More importantly, they can free up $86m for 2024. Take the money and retool for three free agent starting pitchers that are 31 old or below. Ohtani, Yamamoto, Giolito, Uriah, Nola, Snell and Montgomery are available.
The author identified the core players and they shouldn’t be traded. In the off-season they can supplement with free agents and trades.
The usual suspects, Pham, Canha, Robertson,Vogelbach and Carrasco should be dealt in this July for Minors League players because they lose them anyway in free agency.
Sadly, they have a 4.9% to made the playoffs so retool for 2024.
I would hazard to guess that there is close to zero percent chance that the Mets will be able to part with Scherzer and Verlander and all of the monetary commitment to them. Why would any other team take on those obligations? The Mets would likely have to part with prospect talent to offload that money. Eppler scares me, but barring a red hot July, I think they’ll sell off some vets not so much for any worthwhile prospect returns, but to free up time for Mauricio and maybe another Vientos shot. The Braves are just too good and will likely be for a few years, but the Mets can retool to by replacing weaker links like Carrasco, the mid bullpen, Vogelbach…on the perimeter, hope to stay in the wild card mix and keep the fans interested. Even Uncle Steve with limited baseball knowledge is smart enough to know that getting to the level of the Braves, Dodgers, and Rays is going to take more work and more than just throwing around big money.
TJ : Only way to trade Verlander and/or Scherzer is to pay down their 2023 salaries. Fans would be upset. Freeing up 2024 salary and get younger free agent rotation would be one way of obtaining sustained success. A desperate team could do a trade.
Eppler scare me also because of his recent decision making.
McNeil must be added to the core. I think they will try to bring in new relievers ahead of the deadline to see if the team can get back to .500, and whether they buy or sell. This July streaks got to continue. If we are selling then let’s do it. We have some attractive pieces that could turn a pretender into a contender. Hope we are buying.
The 31 old year McNeil has to have a good second half otherwise he would have two of the three last years being sub-par. This that your definition of a core player? I like McNeil also. I share your enthusiasm, but the reality unfortunately is staring at both of us. LGM
This article is too cynical. It derides even the good things. For instance, “Tommy Pham, an afterthought signing in the off-season, has been the team’s best hitter over the last two months. That is a statement on how bad things have gone so far.” Pham’s hitting would be considered phenomenal even if the rest of the lineup was doing much better.
Jeremy Hefner is an excellent pitching coach. To lay the blame on him for the pitchers’ struggles is inappropriate. It illustrates that the author’s point is to blame everyone without regard for various circumstances.