One of the main stories of the 2023 Mets is guys who were good for the team last year have been considerably less successful here in the current season. You can probably name the main offenders off the top of your head. But one guy who doesn’t get lumped in with the underachievers but who should is Adam Ottavino. Now, he hasn’t fallen into replacement-level territory, like a certain right fielder, but his dropoff has still been significant. And he’s still being utilized as if he’s a terrific option.
Ottavino’s career has been all over the map, both literally and figuratively. Part of that was pitching a number of years in Colorado. Part of that was an injury-plagued 2015. Part of that was poor results in the Covid year. So, his results in 2023 don’t look out of place in his career. Ottavino could essentially have any kind of year and you’d likely be able to find something like it elsewhere in his 13-year career.
The Mets signed Ottavino in mid-March of 2022, very late in the offseason. He had a decent year in 2021 with the Red Sox, posting a 112 ERA+ in 62 IP, albeit with an ugly 1.452 WHIP. The hope was that he would be a reliable, slightly above-average reliever. Instead, Ottavino was absolutely terrific, as he notched a 188 ERA+ and had a sub-1 WHIP.
It’s easy to forget now but Ottavino did not get off to a good start with the Mets last year. After 11 games, he had a 6.52 ERA and opponents had an .849 OPS against him. But from that point thru the remainder of the season, he was fantastic. In his final 56 IP, Ottavino had a 1.29 ERA, a 5.6 K/BB ratio and he limited opponents to a .537 OPS.
Fans were relieved when the club re-signed Ottavino in the offseason. But it hasn’t been an encore performance here in the first half of 2023. It’s not that he’s been bad. Rather, he’s essentially a league-average reliever with his 105 ERA+.
It’s not easy to pinpoint why there’s been such a drop in Ottavino’s performance. Instead, there are a bunch of areas where he hasn’t been as effective and it’s had a bigger cumulative effect than you might imagine.
His K rate is down, while both his BB and HR rates are up. That’s never a good combination. But he still has a strong 9.53 K/9. And his ground ball rate is a tick better than it was last year, as he sports a 52.9 GB%. With those GB and K numbers, he should be having a better season. The issue is that when batters hit the ball in the air, they’re doing a lot of damage.
Opposing batters have a .400 OPS when they hit a grounder versus Ottavino this year, which is below the MLB average of .511 on ground balls. But when they hit fly balls, opposing batters have a 1.296 OPS, which is 432 points higher than league average. Ottavino has allowed nine fly ball hits and as you might imagine, a lot of those have gone for extra-bases, in this case seven of them.
That might seem like the “aha!” moment. Yet, Ottavino has a lower HrdHit% this year than he does lifetime. He also has a lower WHIP here in 2023 than he does in his career. So, how come his ERA+ is 25 points worse than his lifetime mark?
It could be a sample-size issue, as 34 IP isn’t very much, even for a reliever. But Ottavino’s FIP is nearly a run worse than his ERA, so it’s not like he’s had bad fortune.
Gun to my head, my guess for the underwhelming season so far would be that Ottavino does very well against the bottom of the order but gets lit up by the other team’s best hitters. The other team’s leadoff hitters have a 1.303 OPS against him, their third-place hitters have a 1.071 OPS and cleanup hitters have a .973 OPS. That’s 41 PA where opposing hitters have a four-digit OPS.
Of course, Buck Showalter figured this out awhile ago. That’s why he’ll use David Robertson in the eighth inning when the opposing team has their best hitters due up. The problem is that Ottavino has still faced those hitters too many times. We can hope that as the season progresses, we’ll see some separation from how many times he faces the third hitter versus how many times he faces the eighth.
And ultimately that’s the big issue moving forward. Showalter has Ottavino in his hierarchy as his second-best reliever. Sure, he’ll flip the innings he uses Ottavino and Robertson when that one situation presents itself. But the real solution is to promote Brooks Raley over Ottavino in the pecking order. Here’s how the two have produced this year:
| Player | IP | ERA | WHIP | OPS | WPA | Vs LHB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottavino | 34 | 3.97 | 1.206 | .704 | (-0.81) | .776 |
| Raley | 36 | 2.43 | 1.146 | .646 | 0.31 | .749 |
Raley’s numbers are simply better than Ottavino’s across the board. Yet, Showalter still uses Raley as a glorified LOOGY, getting him matchups versus LHB whenever possible, even though his numbers versus lefties aren’t a whole lot better than Ottavino’s. The hope is that veteran T.J. McFarland can have some success with the platoon advantage, which might give Showalter the confidence to use Raley in more diverse – and important – situations than just when primarily lefties are due up.
Perhaps more PA versus the bottom of the order helps restore Ottavino’s confidence and he can turn in a second half of the season with numbers that more closely resemble what he produced last year.
And given his troubles with runners stealing whenever they get on versus him, fewer walks would be nice, too.
Raley should the 8th inning set up man instead Ottavino. In fact, the 37 year old Ottavino and his player option of $7.25m should be traded this month if they can secure a 15-20 prospect. The Athletic said that a rumor has it that the 35 year old, pre-arb, with team option $6.5m Raley is being offered instead. That does not make sense. But then again, using Raley, a two way pitcher, as a LOOGY doesn’t make sense either.