It took a bit of convincing. The early evidence flew in the face of what we’d all heard. A lot of us – myself included, of course, or I wouldn’t mention it – fell into the trap of thinking that how it is in the moment is how it will be forever. Patience is a virtue, and I will cop to being less than virtuous, As I’ve written after I’d expressed some pitiful pessimism, I am very happy to have been wrong. Such is the case in our evaluation of the Mets’ highly touted rookie catcher, Francisco Alvarez. As it turns out, a star is born.
We’d been hearing about Alvarez since before the ink was dry on an agreement reached with the then-16-year-old Venezuelan back in 2018. The Mets’ hype machine of the time spun him as a combination of Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, Yogi Berra, and Pudge Rodriguez. While that hyperbole was playing out during his time in the lower minors, the national media that pays attention to such things was also starting to take notice, such that he entered the top 100 prospect rankings after his first full year as a pro. Prior to the 2020 season, Baseball America had him slotted as the 67th prospect most likely to become a Major League regular. By 2022, they had him pegged as a star, ranking #13 and after his brief cuppa joe in 2022 – more on that in a minute – he’d moved up to number nine. It seemed like, for once, the hype would match the production. When he did reach the Majors at last, however, it looked like another lie. Let’s take a look at those foul, frustrating final two weeks of the 2022 season, shall we?
On Monday, September 19, the Mets beat the Brewers in Milwaukee to clinch their playoff spot – which had basically been a foregone conclusion since the middle of May. It was their 94th win and kept them a game up on the ridiculously hot Atlanta Braves for the division lead. For good measure, they won again the next night, running a winning streak to six games. Milwaukee recovered the next afternoon, in the series finale, shutting out the Mets for only the eighth time all year, 6-0. Suddenly, the Mets looked tired and vulnerable. They won two of their next three in Oakland, but the game that should have been won – a Jacob deGrom start – was lost when their vaunted offense couldn’t figure out a pitcher named Ken Waldichuk. Then came a maddening split to the egregious Miami Marlins, only a split because Eduardo Escobar was able to deliver the ghost runner with a 10th inning single in the second game. That set up a showdown in Atlanta, where the Mets could have wrapped up the division title with one win. To help ensure that possibility and possibly set up a storybook end to a hitherto fantastic season, they summoned Alvarez from Syracuse on the off-day prior to the series opener. He got the start as the DH in game one, going oh-for-four with a strikeout, his first MLB at bat ending in a 6-4-3 double play to snuff a promising rally in the second. He then appeared as a PH/DH the next two games, going oh-for-four as well, with two more strikeouts, as the Braves swept the Mets and won the NL East. It was, at best, an inauspicious debut.
Fast-forward to Spring Training, 2023. Alvarez blistered the baseball all through March, yet, found himself on the Syracuse shuttle, with the Mets having signed a veteran catcher, Omar Narvaez in the off-season and keeping Tomas Nido on as the backup. In four games, he put up a 1.056 OPS and when Narvaez went down with a torn calf muscle in early April, the kid got the call. In the early going, it didn’t look as if he’d improved all that much from his showing in the Atlanta cauldron. Many’s the early 2023 game that saw him strike out in clutch situations, oftentimes chasing pitches that couldn’t have been hit with a pike pole. The social media cry went up: “He’s not ready! Send him back to AAA! He needs seasoning!” Well, his season began to turn in early May, with a two-homer performance in a 7-6 loss at Cincinnati, his first career multi-home run game. From May 17 through July 8, he has been showing exactly what he can do. Since May 17, Alvarez has a slash line of .256/.308/.594, good for a .902 OPS. Since July 1, he’s hit five homers in his last 26 at-bats, including a dramatic game-tying poke in a near-miracle win against the Diamondbacks in Phoenix. He also contributed a sparkling defensive play on a third-strike wild pitch to nip the runner in that game. He’s broken the Mets’ rookie record for home runs by a catcher with his 17 so far this year… and we’re only at the All-Star break.
I’m very happy to have been wrong.
Great article, Charlie!
Let’s add Roy Campanella (a boyhood favorite) to the above list! Short and husky, with 41 HR (1953) power and 1.4 dWAR defense (1950). Total WAR in 1951 of 7.5 and an OPS+ of 159 that year.
Alvarez is a great story and he deserves all of the acclaim he’s receiving.
Still, I think the big thing that needs to be addressed is the idea – floated by many – that Alvarez’ defense wasn’t anywhere close to being MLB ready. Wish I had a dollar for everyone who said some version of that. But as soon as we get the chance to see his defense on a daily basis, not only is he good enough to play, he’s actually above average as a defensive player. And for the most part, everyone just kind of accepts it. Yes, we heard some stories about how he’s a sponge and has really improved since he’s been in the majors.
And no one questions that in the slightest.
The best we can do is to apply the smell test. Much like unscrewing the lid on a gallon of milk the day it expires and taking a sniff to see if it’s kosher before drinking it. When I apply the smell test to the idea that Alvarez’ defense wasn’t good enough to make the Opening Day roster, well, it doesn’t pass the smell test.
The Mets could have opened the year with Nido and Alvarez as the catchers and used the money spent on Narvaez to get a reliever with a history of being good in the majors. The simple fact is that the Mets completely botched how ready their top prospect was to play in the majors. And that matters; it really matters. And everyone acts like it was no big deal.
Every time someone mentions how Alvarez is breaking some Mets record or MLB record – we should remind ourselves how the people in charge didn’t think he was MLB ready.
It is no big deal because for every Alonso or Alvarez, you can name 4 or 5 guys who come up and are bupkis in their initial taste like Rosario, Dom Smith, Brett Baty, d’Arnaud.
No one has a crystal ball on these things.
I’m shocked at how blase you are about this.
And isn’t it apples and oranges comparing how MLB ready a player is offensively and defensively?
If this post is specifically aimed at defense, then yes i agree that the Mets front office has systemically underestimated the Mets prospects over the years. But are they really terrible at their job do they just use defense as the go-to scapegoat when questioned by fans why such prospects are not promoted to the majors?
Narvaez was a complete waste. Alvarez should have been on the opening day roster. Alvarez has true MVP potential.
Hindsight is 20/20. I’m sure you probably had similar thoughts with Baty and that hasn’t turned out well at all.
Specific to catcher, i’m very much in the camp that you need a strong duo at the catcher position, probably having seen the Braves do it with much success in the past few years. Catchers have a higher chance of getting banged up due to the nature of their profession, and the drop off from starting caliber guys to the fringe depth guys are so great that it’s worth the extra perceived cost.
I know I sound like a broken record, but I still think our front office is our worse enemy. They give too much in making trades, they mess up on said trades, they really screw over our own prospects in evaluating them, and they don’t do a good job in constructing a roster….present or future.
Vientos? Mauricio? Vogelbach, Marte; who should be on the roster now and where?
Alvarez should catch 3/4 days, and DH about 1/2 of the time in his catching off days. He also should be up in the order and Alonso (who has been putrid since his wrist injury return; should not be hitting in the 4th spot.
Eppler really screw up when he promoted Alvarez before the 2022 Atlanta series. If Alvarez were promoted earlier then Mazeika wouldn’t have had 72 PA and Perez have 16 PA in 2022, Alvarez should have gained the experience earlier and not the pressure cooker of Atlanta.
Alvarez had a spring training OPS of .301 and deserved to be in Syracuse.
His monthly OPS are .494 April, 1.024 May, .534 June and 1.464 July. That isn’t a too consistent hitter. He is just a 21 year old rookie, a MLB power threat and a special talent that is learning as he goes. He deserves patience when he falters and jubilation when he excels. He is a budding star.
What is fun to watch is how Alvarez has become more comfortable behind the plate. From calling games, to blocking errant pitches, to catching foul pops to that snap throw down to first base. He has a great attitude and oh yeah, he crushes the ball. Baty was another who could not come up because of his D, but he too has grown into his 3B spot, and has played well, with the occasional mishap on a playable ball hit his way. So when do we see Vientos maybe play at little OF and is Mauricio really that bad a fielder that he can’t play at 2B, 3B, SS and send Guillorme, Mendick and Stewart on their way. Can anyone deny we need their bats in this lineup? Or is there still someone out there that thinks a roster spot with Vogelbach’s name on it still makes sense? The draft and development of minor leaguers can certainly be a crapshoot but it starts with a strong front office that we don’t have.
I think we can definitely find a roster spot for Mauricio somewhere…..