Between June 4th and June 9th, the Mets played five games, lost them all and allowed 46 runs. That brought the team’s year-long ERA to a 4.80 mark. In the 26 games since then, the Mets’ staff has a 3.38 ERA, which is a marked improvement. Additionally, that ERA came while facing predominantly winning teams, as the Mets squared off against the Yankees, Astros, Phillies, Brewers, Giants and Diamondbacks in this stretch. And while the Cardinals and Padres had losing records, that had more to do with their pitching than their hitting.
So, how did the Mets turn things around with their pitching? It was due to the 1-2 combo of some starting pitchers reverting towards better pitching like they had done just last year, combined with getting rid of some relievers who were throwing gasoline on the fire. Let’s look at the starters first. Here are three SP, with the first number being their ERA from the beginning of the year thru June 9 and the second number being their ERA from June 10 to the break:
Justin Verlander – 4.85, 2.03
Carlos Carrasco – 5.94, 4.01
David Peterson – 8.08, 2.35
Collectively, these three had a 6.30 ERA in 114.1 IP thru games of 6/9 and since June 10, they have a 2.70 ERA in 71 IP. If this trio can continue to give this type of performance moving forward, it will go a long way towards winning games.
Meanwhile, the bullpen has moved on from Jeff Brigham, Tommy Hunter, Stephen Nogosek and Josh Walker. Those four relievers combined for 85 IP and 57 ER, for a 6.04 ERA. They’ve been replaced by Trevor Gott, Grant Hartwig and T.J. McFarland, who’ve combined for 15 IP and 2 ER, for a 1.20 ERA. It’s not quite that rosy, as Drew Smith was the other “addition,” as he was activated from the suspended list. Smith has allowed 3 ER in 5.2 IP, which isn’t very good yet it’s still an improvement from the four relievers listed at the start of this graph.
As the Mets look to follow their manager’s directive to “play better,” it’s easy to see how the team accomplishes this goal. They need their SP to give them both quality and quantity. No team is going to have success if their starters consistently get knocked out by the fifth inning. And it’s even more important for the 2023 Mets, with their thin bullpen. The starters need to give a lot more outings of at least six innings, preferably longer, and the manager needs to deploy his bullpen so he doesn’t use his four best relievers in the same game.
From the pitching side of things, we wonder if Carrasco and Verlander can keep their recent good pitching up. We hope that Max Scherzer can find the cure to his gopher ball tendencies. And we look forward to Jose Quintana’s debut. The pitching was so bad the first 64 games of the season that it’s easy to forget that these are good pitchers with a track record. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that the Mets could come close to replicating their 3.38 ERA of the last 26 games over the final 72 games of the season.
But while we can celebrate the pitching of the last month, we need to recognize that the Mets went just 12-14 in that stretch. While the pitchers were performing better than the season-long results of any team in baseball, the hitters weren’t getting the job done. They scored three runs or fewer in 10 of those 26 games.
This year, the MLB average is 4.57 runs per game. While the pitching was getting the job done the last 26 games, the team’s longest stretch of games with at least four runs scored was four, and the Mets went 3-1 in that span. The problem is that there are too many games where they score three runs or fewer.
With 90 games in the books, the Mets have scored fewer than four runs 36 times, with 31 games where they’ve scored two runs or fewer. They need more consistency from their hitters. With nearly every hitter in the lineup performing worse than they did a season ago, consistency has been a tough ask.
Coming into the season, some of us felt like starting pitching was going to be a club strength. We saw the exact opposite thru most of the first half of the year. But in the last month or so, we’ve seen the starters begin to pull their weight on a regular basis. We’re going to need to see that for the remainder of the season if the Mets are to make a playoff push, as the offense is simply too inconsistent to rely on for long stretches.
The offense has to be more consistent and so does Scherzer. In his last seven starts he has given up 5,6,1,2,2,4 and 5 earned runs. The Mets are relying on him. It is nice to have Carrasco and Peterson pitching well but the Met s starting pitching starts with Scherzer, Verlander and Senga.
Very soon, Quintana will join the rotation. That will make six starters. They’ll be a choice between Carrasco and Peterson. Carrasco contract expires this season. With his upsurge now would be the time to cash in on him. Maybe they can do a similar trade like the Escobar trade. Maybe Peterson is the future 5th starter if he returns his 2022 form. If he doesn’t then they can always bring up Lucchesi who is having a good year in Syracuse.
I agree on cashing in Carrasco, too, I’d trade any player on the roster if the return weighs enough. Trade Robertson, Ottovino, Raley, Cahna, Byrd II (Pham), and even Quintana if someone wants him. I think McNeil is still a bargain at $15MM per year and Alonso is keepable, but needs to bat lower. Again, the return must be worth it. I wouldn’t blow up the roster just to blow it up.