Yesterday in a little back-and-forth with longtime commenter Mike W the topic of emotion was broached. My favorite quote about sports and emotion was by former Florida State football coach Bobby Bowden, who when asked how important emotion was in the game, quipped that no one was more emotional than his wife and she couldn’t play football worth a darn. Which just goes to show that it’s possible to laugh at something, even if what it says goes against what you really believe.
Rather than emotion, let’s use the word passion. It’s my firm belief that you need passion, regardless if you’re a fan or player or manager or front office guy. Certainly, if you’re a fan, why bother if you’re not going to be passionate about things? Of course, passion can come across in many different forms. When we first started the Game Chatters, the Mets were losing 90 games on a regular basis. Yet Chris F, Metsense and Name joined me night after night, watching these games with no hope of making the playoffs. That’s passion.
But hopefully you can bring some logic along with the passion. There’s no magic formula for the right mix of passion and logic. And it’s very likely that the right mix is different for the four groups detailed in the previous paragraph. Perhaps no time do we need that divide among our various groups to be starker than at the trade deadline when it’s not crystal clear what the team should do.
Fans can and should be passionate right now. They should express their opinions about if this is the time to sell everything that’s not bolted to the floor or look to add relievers better than Trevor Gott or whatever their beliefs might be. But the front office needs to be more logical about the situation. And the truth is that being logical now is easier said than done.
This is a team that when originally constructed seemed in good shape to make the playoffs. But the combination of injuries, poor performances, bad luck and even overrating the actual talent on hand has resulted in a lousy record. It seems to me that if you’re going to approach things with as much logic as possible, you need to honestly figure out the percentages for those four factors. If your non-biased view of things is that the team was overrated coming into the season, then maybe there’s zero reason to do anything but sell and build for the future.
My calculation puts the majority of the blame on poor performances. This is definitely an area where reasonable people can disagree. But, gun to my head, my breakdown would be: 60% poor performances, 25% injuries and 15% bad luck. It should also be pointed out that these issues are frequently intertwined. The injury to Edwin Diaz was certainly bad luck, which forced relievers into bigger roles, which might be related to the actual talent being overrated. And that’s far from the only case.
We don’t have to go too far back in time to see another Mets team that suffered from poor performances. That was the story for the 2021 season, when Francisco Lindor was terrible for two months, Michael Conforto left a lot to be desired for four months, while Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith were bad all year.
Knowing how things played out that season, with the Mets trading a top prospect for two months of Javier Baez, how can anyone advocate for pushing chips in the middle to make a run at the playoffs, especially with so many clubs ahead of them in the Wild Card standings?
The logical rebuttal to that point of view is that one data point is hardly a convincing case. Anything can happen once.
Perhaps it’s better if we look at the opposite side of the equation. What if your logical thought process leads to selling. How do you do that? It’s easy to say trade anyone with an expiring contract for anything you can get. But is that enough? I used to be in a fantasy league where you had to pay $1 for each trade you made. If someone came up with a trade proposal that didn’t really push your team forward, you’d say – that trade’s not worth a buck.
Is it worth anything to trade an injured Tommy Pham for a team’s 20th-best prospect? Maybe it is. But we have to be honest and say that the return for a lot of the guys the team might sell is going to be underwhelming. And how much do they have to get in return for trading a star – say Pete Alonso or Max Scherzer – to make the trade worthwhile?
If you were a team in the playoff chase and needed offense – let’s say the Brewers – how much would you give up for a struggling Alonso? Or if you needed starting pitching – let’s say the Reds – how much would you give up for an inconsistent Scherzer?
The possibility exists that these guys could bring back enough to make a trade worthwhile, especially if the Mets kick in salary relief. But do you want to risk selling low on Alonso because he’s having a year unlike he’s had in any other full season? If you trade Scherzer and pick up salary, how do you fill his slot next year?
Trading impact players this year also indicates how you feel about the talent assembled – both at the MLB level and the high minors – for 2024, too. If you think the team can contend next year, how do you trade a star? If you think that they need to focus on 2025 and beyond – how can you not trade those two, along with Justin Verlander, too?
It’s not an easy decision on any level and no one should envy the task in front of Billy Eppler.
In a weird way, the safest thing to do might be to make some bullpen additions and hope that the team finally takes Buck Showalter’s advice and plays better. It’s too risky to pay the cost needed to bring in a top starter or an impact bat. There’s a solid chance that no team is interested in making a good offer for what the Mets are selling.
Eppler and his staff need to burn up the phone lines of other teams the next 10 days and look for the best trades they can make, regardless of which direction that’s in. But if all they end up doing is making the equivalent of two trades like last year’s Mychal Givens swap – our logical side should tell our passionate side that it doesn’t make sense to break up the band for an underwhelming return.
And the current album the band is working on may just not be up to previous or subsequent heights. Maybe the 2023 Mets are the equivalent of “Their Satanic Majesties Request,” with the only question being which player takes on the role of “She’s a Rainbow.”
Oh my goodness Brian……the Rolling Stones? I was almost 13 when that album came out, and it really was crappy to us even back then. I think my (slightly) younger brother and I chipped in the $2.99 for the LP (!), purely to annoy our stepdad with that cover art.
Excellent points on your article as usual. Yes, I have been an advocate of selling off the team, but at this point, it’ll be selling low and getting squat back. Need to play the youngsters though; including Vientos, and give a unbiased evaluation of them all moving forward.
As you probably know, vinyl records have made a comeback and are pretty popular. Even my daughter is into vinyl. But the prices that vinyl records fetch is sort of mind boggling, even used ones in lousy shape. It’s rare to find new vinyl for cheaper than $19.99, which is a tough pill for me to swallow. Kind of like the results for the 2023 Mets…
Having lived through the miracle Mets, the ya gotta believe Mets, and the dominant 1986 max that barely squeaked by the Astros and the Red Sox in order to get the title, it seems that it is all about passion. And that’s why fan is short for fanatic. I too have been a proponent of selling because of the way we have not been able to really have any sustained winning streaks, with the exception of the six game winning streak we recently had. The players are lackadaisical, a lot of our fielding is spotty, we don’t run, no one bunts a run her over anymore to play a little small ball, and with the exception of two or three players, we are not winning games with big home runs. There is some logic to filling in some bullpen pieces at the deadline and hoping our hitting comes around. It is not hard to imagine that if we could get into the playoffs, and have Verlander, Scherzer, and Senga as our starting three, anything can happen. That being said, there is no expectation that Marte will perform well, Guillorme just went down for who knows how long, and our DH are spotty at best. I can live with whatever Eppler does, but it seems that teams who are in need of a piece or two to make a serious playoff push, would want some of our players, and be willing to part with some of their future prospects in order to do so. it might be a great chance to pick up some players who are on the verge of moving up and who can be prepared to replace some of our aging veterans. In the meantime, hoping with Guillorme going on the IL, that we will finally see Ronny Mauricio.
The Twitterverse is reporting that the call-up to replace Guillorme will be…Danny Mendick.
If this happens, I can’t think of a move that is more (within the context of another great article!) more dispassionate and illogical.
Where oh where is Matt Reynolds these days? I hear that Andrelton Simmons is available.
I think the 22 Mets weren’t as good as their record and I think the 23 Mets aren’t as bad as their record.
I believe that the Mets will need another starter for next season. I don’t think you get that starter now at the trade deadline. I think you get Yamamoto if he decides to come over.
I would trade Verlander or Scherzer if an offer with a lot of pay down on the salary brought back at least a bona-fide AA player with some big upside. If the offers were mediocre, then no.
I agree with rebuilding the bullpen. Pham and Canha and Robertson can go towards that to get a controllable reliever.
As much as I am annoyed by Alonso’s anemic near Mendoza batting average, I would not trade him unless overwhelmed with an offer. The Mets have a lack of power problem and trading one of the few big power threats would not be wise.
So yes, I am about being a buyer and a seller. I really want to see Vientos and Mauricio get steady at bats for the rest of the year.
We need a master plan that runs though the rest of the year and through next year.
You can’t always get what you want.
But if you try sometime, you may find you get what you need.
Eppler and gang need to be burning up those phone lines. And making some deals before the last minute deadline panic.
I pretty much agree with Mike W. Buy and or sell based on price/return. I wouldn’t hit the 2023 team for the sake of it…unless the market delivers unusually big returns.
At the trading deadline , logic dictates the Mets would be better off selling the veterans that have expired contracts at the end of the year. Most of the veterans will not yield good minor league players. With Cohen’s money maybe they can sweetened the deal. The team had 2/3 of a season to right themselves and they failed. The next 1/3 of the season should be turned over to the rookies. Carrasco replaced by Peterson, Pham/Canha replaced by Mauricio and Vogelbach replaced by Vientos. These veterans would not be in the plans of 2024 so clear the way now to see if the Minor Leaguers are major league capable. Maybe they surprise us and have a playoff run.
Robertson, Scherzer, Verlander, Ottavino and Quintana should get interest so if the deal is feasible then do it. Cohen can buy replacement in the free agent market. Seize this opportunity to get younger.
And yet again, this is the FO that evaluated Carrasco over Walker, and over Bassit, and over Stromen. The only good moves they’ve made re: the rotation is getting Senga, not keeping deGrom; and picking up Quintana….maybe.
That’s a little misleading.
They had a team option on Carrasco that they picked up for $14 million. And there was a $3 million buyout so they essentially got him for $11 million. If Walker or Bassitt would have agreed to a 1/$11 deal, the Mets would have signed them in a skinny minute. Instead, Walker got $72 million while Bassitt got $63 million.
Walker & Bassitt got longer term deals, I know that. And I know people were upset about Bassitt’s last start. But hey, I would have signed both of them over Verlander’s insane paycheck. They were years younger and have proved that they could pitch in NY. I know Stromen antagonizes people, but he too was a quality arm.
Overall, this FO really messed up in not retaining these ML arms….and banking on Megill & Peterson to take there place.
And time will tell if Quintana (and Senga) are solid replacements for those dearly departed.*
*I think they will be.
Stand pat at the trade deadline and concede the season. In the off-season, sign Matt Chapman (3B), Blake Snell (SP), and Rhys Hoskins (DH) to replace Baty, Carrasco, and Vogelbach, respectively. Hope/expect that Alonso and McNeil play next year close to their career norms. Marte may be done, so that means playing Pham and Canha as there are not many good FA outfielder options next year. With the power upgrade Alvarez provides at catcher, that’s a 2024 team who can rival the 2022 team’s 101-win season plus whatever upside the farm call-ups can provide. HR hitters should be a priority (look at the success of ATL, LAD, and TB).
I see Ohtani playing for LAD or SFG, so he’s probably not a real option, but he’d obviously be great to replace both Carrasco and Vogelbach in lieu of Snell/Hoskins if you want to pay $50 mil a year for 10 years (I wouldn’t since pitchers get hurt frequently and then his bat is gone, too, while he rehabs from TJ surgery for 2 years).