The Mets have made it to the 99-game mark. Sitting at 46-53, what can the Mets expect to achieve the rest of the season? The first information to review is what the prognosticators assessed the Mets true talent level before the season. Most already included Edwin Diaz’ injury, so that issue was included in the assessments preseason.
The Mets offensive core is solid – and thus the forecasters would not expect the Mets to be behind late in games so the closer while costing a win or two shouldn’t be a tremendous setback. The Mets won 101 games in 2022, so even regression would still have the Mets in the 90+ projection range. Few projections like to forecast 100-win teams, and the Mets forecast had settled around 93 wins.
These did rely on better batter performances from Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil, setting aside Starling Marte. Francisco Alvarez is exceeding expectations, as is Tommy Pham, but both have part time roles. The offense has not been good, even if Francisco Lindor is performing “slightly below expectations”. Brandon Nimmo is doing well. When half the lineup underperforms, the runs do not come and thus there is reliance on the pitching. The Mets offense has negative Wins Above Average (WAA). That is not terribly surprising, except when you can see half the team, Lindor, Nimmo, Alonso, Pham, and Alvarez posting about 5 WAA, the rest of the offense has managed to generate about -6 WAA.
It seems like the Mets front office is still on the fence on whether to sell or buy.
If one reviewed the standings, given the playoffs include three wild cards, and the playoffs are a crapshoot., the Mets are “only” 7 games behind the playoff spot.
Just looking at the current roster’s expected performance and applying that win rate to the remaining games, the Mets might be expected to win 36 more games. That would make them 81-81, and frankly, that seems about as good of a scenario Mets fans can hope for.
But what if you believe? What could be done to nudge the 81 wins to the 86 win “playoff-ish” win territory? Could the Mets acquire anyone to play Left field or Right Field or third base? Could they acquire a starting pitcher and bullpen help?
The Mets do not have much to trade with, so acquisitions would be about taking on a contract, or a PTBNL scenario. General Manager Billy Eppler does not ooze “clever deadline dealmaker”, so this seems unlikely.
The other way to play this is to see what can be captured for 2024. The Braves are out of reach, and if the Mets do, they can put Mark Vientos on the field every day, as well as give Brett Baty more plate appearances. And work to acquire some young hot arms for the next campaign.
Again, there isn’t much to trade, but Mark Canha, and a healthy Starling Marte, which he isn’t, are “proven commodities” that can help. And let’s not forget Dan Vogelbach. Anyone in the bullpen that throws left-handed is likely to be a desirable trade chip at the deadline.
Steve Cohen does not present as a “wait til next year” type of owner and will probably stay in the fight longer than he should. The current roster is so old it is tough to see that he is getting the best available stathead guidance. And given Marte’s recent confessions, not the nest medical team advice either.
There is a third “why not both” option. Marte is out, Luis Guillorme just went on the Injury List. The Mets could decide ot go with Baty full time – he mostly already is – and move McNeil back to second and leave him there and give Vientos a corner outfield position for the rest of the season, and hope everyone bounces back to form, including the pitchers.
To make the playoffs, the Mets probably must win 40-plus of their next 63 games. They did that last season with much the same roster. I, for one Met fan, will continue to believe.
I like the optimism of the piece.
People who are on the sell bandwagon seem to be confused as to what they might get in return. Raley and Robertson would likely bring someone in the 8-12 best prospect of a team range. That’s not bad but it’s not anything to jump start a rebuild. Carrasco, Canha, Marte and Pham wouldn’t bring back that much.
I’d find out what the cost for Ohtani would be. Does Brett Baty and Dominic Hamel get you Ohtani and Anthony Rendon’s contract?
I’d find out the cost of a reliever better than Trevor Gott
I’d find out if there was a veteran hitter available for a 23-year-old reliever in A-ball. Charlie Blackmon? Rockies have some relievers so this could be a bigger deal.
But essentially it’s on the veterans to play better or for Buck to put them on the bench.
I think you missed half of the equation. Carlos Carrasco getting blasted game after game and giving up ten hits in less than four innings. Max Scherzer with an ERA north of 4.00 giving up gopher balks like never before and Verlander being inconsisten after a 1.75 ERA a year ago.
McNeil and Marte have fallen off of the cliff. Our prized power hitter is hitting .213 with fewer than ten doubles.
The worst part is, when we watch this team is that they look like the walking dead of futility, looking like they just want to pack it in and go home.
I have said believe what makes sense is to be a buyer and seller based on what value you can create.
The thinking has to be to build now for 2024. And if we just trade for another Trevor Gott or two, that’s not an upgrade or planning for the future. The clock is ticking.
They needed to win last night. They needed a series win in a big game. But they played their same lifeless listless baseball which has been the story of this season and lost to a team who threw a bullpen game.
I want to see them play the long game and build to win.
Let’s look at some quick math for the 2023 wild card for the Mets.
In order to secure a wild card this season, the Mets have to pass five teams.
Let’s say for arguments sake that the top current two teams will get the first two wild card spots. The next three teams are virtually tied for the this spot with almost identical records of Let’s say 53-46. Let’s say one of those teams play well at a .550 clip for the rest of the season. That would leave the third team with an 88-74 record. The Mets at 46-53 would have to go 43-20 the rest if the way to win the third wild card. There is always the possibility that one of the top two teams plays poorly and drops back.
Let’s say the last wild card teams wins 85 games. The Mets would still have to go 39-23 to win the last card slot.
If the Mets were seven games out of the wild card and had to jump one or two teams, there is always a shot. But to pass five teams, the odds are not good.
Ya gotta believe. Thanks for the walk down memory lane where the Mets had no business winning their division but could do so because the second place 81-81 Cardinals were the only other team not under .500. So if we pull off a miracle and make that last wildcard spot, then we could be dangerous in a short series. But I’ve been pushing selling for a bit now and hope there is something that interests other teams so we can chop some payroll and pick up some prospects. LGM
On July 24, 2024 the Mets are 7 games behind for a playoffs.
On September 12, 2007 the Mets were 7 games ahead to for a playoff spot. They didn’t make the playoffs.
On August 13, 1969 the Mets were 10 games behind for the division.
They won the World Series.
I guess anything can happen.
Yes Metsense. As mentioned by many above, Eppler needs to proceed with an objective mind. I think Robertson would bring back the most, but I don’t think I’d take a 8-12 ranked prospect. I would actually approach him this week and see if he’d agree to an extension for 2024…he has said he likes it here…that would solidify the back end of the 2024 pen and keep him here should they go on a crazy run. Cahna would probably bring back the next. Eat return but it won’t be much. Who in the world would touch Marte right now? I would not move Verlander unless someone took on all the money and sent a top 5 pitching prospect…very unlikely. I’d move Max if someone took on a big portion of 2024 salary, even for minimal return, but who would do that? Maybe the Dodgers, but why would they tie up money that could be used for a run at Ohtani? I’d move Pham to free up AB for Vientos and Mauricio.
I suspect there may be more value to the franchise by finishing 2023 strong, even if they fall short of the playoffs, than losing 90, especially if Uncle Steve is going to pull out all the stops for Ohtani.
I think the Mets should drop as much salary as possible by giving away Scherzer and possibly Verlander along with Marte and Canha, etc. They should keep Robertson and sign him for next year. A duo of Diaz and Robertson would be terrific. I’m not concerned about getting prospects, not with what we have to trade. What I am concerned about is signing younger free-agent pitchers this winter. There’s Yamamoto from Japan and several excellent pitchers available (including Ohtani, of course) but they would have to clear salary to do so. I’m also not concerned about their win-loss record b/c the more they lose the better their draft position and the more money they’d have for international free agents.
Robertson was just average two years ago. He will be a 39 yoa in April. Buyer be aware. Your plan about getting younger pitchers by trading of Scherzer and Verlander is feasible and reasonable. Robertson also should be included. Other team are inquiring about Pham, Canha and Quintana per MLBTR . Therefore they have value. If Eppler decides to sell then these players should be a priority.