Brett Baty and his future given his underwhelming rookie season

During Sunday’s Game Chatter, Chris F and I were talking about Brett Baty. Specifically, Chris stated that the Mets can’t begin next year with Baty as their starting third baseman. It’s not difficult to understand where Chris is coming from here. Baty is right at the Galvis Line with an 80 OPS+ and he’s not making up for it with great speed or great defense. My immediate response was that the Mets don’t give a rookie the playing time they’re giving Baty and then not give him the job the next season.

Coming into the 2023 season, the Mets had 61 seasons under their belt. Any guesses how many rookie hitters had amassed at least 400 PA in franchise history? Turns out it’s only 23 times or roughly one every three years. Which makes this year, with Francisco Alvarez and Baty both likely to eclipse that mark, pretty unusual. It’s happened twice before, in 2003 and 1963. Neither of those seasons were winning years for the Mets, with the club suffering 95 losses in ’03 and 111 in ’63. Here’s the full list:

Player	OPS+	Place	Season	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Alonso	147	ROY-1	2019	24	161	693	597	103	155	53	120	1	0	72	183	.260	.358	.583	.941
Darryl Strawberry	134	ROY-1	1983	21	122	473	420	63	108	26	74	19	6	47	128	.257	.336	.512	.848
John Milner	119	ROY-3	1972	22	117	423	362	52	86	17	38	2	1	51	74	.238	.340	.423	.762
Ike Davis	115	ROY-7	2010	23	147	601	523	73	138	19	71	3	2	72	138	.264	.351	.440	.791
Jason Phillips	115		2003	26	119	453	403	45	120	11	58	0	1	39	50	.298	.373	.442	.815
Ron Hunt	110	ROY-2	1963	22	143	600	533	64	145	10	42	5	4	40	50	.272	.334	.396	.730
Gregg Jefferies	106	ROY-3	1989	21	141	559	508	72	131	12	56	21	6	39	46	.258	.314	.392	.706
Travis d’Arnaud	105	ROY-7	2014	25	108	421	385	48	93	13	41	1	0	32	64	.242	.302	.416	.718
Ron Swoboda	103		1965	21	135	438	399	52	91	19	50	2	3	33	102	.228	.291	.424	.714
Jay Payton	98	ROY-3	2000	27	149	529	488	63	142	17	62	5	11	30	60	.291	.331	.447	.778
Justin Turner	94		2011	26	117	487	435	49	113	4	51	7	2	39	59	.260	.334	.356	.690
Cleon Jones	94	ROY-4	1966	23	139	537	495	74	136	8	57	16	8	30	62	.275	.318	.372	.689
Jim Hickman	94		1962	25	140	453	392	54	96	13	46	4	4	47	96	.245	.328	.401	.729
Tsuyoshi Shinjo	90		2001	29	123	438	400	46	107	10	56	4	5	25	70	.268	.320	.405	.725
Kazuo Matsui	89	ROY-6	2004	28	114	509	460	65	125	7	44	14	3	40	97	.272	.331	.396	.727
Ty Wigginton	88	ROY-8	2003	25	156	633	573	73	146	11	71	12	2	46	124	.255	.318	.396	.714
Lee Mazzilli	88		1977	22	159	618	537	66	134	6	46	22	15	72	72	.250	.340	.339	.679
Tim Harkness	81		1963	25	123	420	375	35	79	10	41	4	3	36	79	.211	.290	.339	.629
Juan Lagares	80		2013	24	121	421	392	35	95	4	34	6	3	20	96	.242	.281	.352	.633
Kevin Elster	75		1988	23	149	450	406	41	87	9	37	2	0	35	47	.214	.282	.313	.594
Ron Gardenhire	67		1982	24	141	424	384	29	92	3	33	5	6	23	55	.240	.279	.313	.592
Rey Ordonez	60	ROY-5	1996	25	151	530	502	51	129	1	30	1	3	22	53	.257	.289	.303	.592
Wayne Garrett	56		1969	21	124	454	400	38	87	1	39	4	2	40	75	.218	.290	.268	.558

There’s a ton of interesting information here. The first thing that jumps out is that while the Mets don’t give a ton of rookie hitters this much playing time, they’re usually pretty good when they do. Of the 23 rookie hitters on this list, 12 of them placed in the top 10 in Rookie of the Year voting, including seven in the top five. Alvarez should make it 13 in the top 10 and eight in the top five. Baty, eh, not so much.

In fact, if he maintains his 80 OPS+ thru the end of the season, it would tie for the fifth-worst mark in franchise history, with our old pal, Juan Lagares. But Lagares was providing Gold Glove-level defense in center field, which helped him to a 2.3 fWAR. Baty currently has a 0.2 fWAR and odds are he won’t crack a 1.0 mark by the end of the year.

Let’s look at the players with an OPS+ below 90 and see how they did the following season:

Matsui – Began his sophomore season as the starting 2B and remained until June 17. He didn’t play again until August 9 and was a part-time player for the rest of the season.

Mazzilli – Amassed 619 PA in his second full year and posted a 123 OPS+

Wigginton – Was a full-time starter with a 111 OPS+ until the Mets promoted David Wright and traded him to the Pirates near the end of July.

Harkness – Got the first hit by a Met in Shea Stadium but otherwise flopped, amassing just 128 PA before being traded at the end of July. Started until May 17 and then didn’t play again until July 14, with no time in the minors until after his trade to the Reds. Sounds like an injury.

Lagares – Injuries limited him to 452 PA in his second season but he upped his OPS+ to 102.

Elster – Had 508 PA in his sophomore campaign and upped his OPS+ 12 points.

Gardenhire – Began his second season as a reserve before being sent to the minors in early May. He didn’t return to the majors until September. He always had trouble with his hamstrings, so that could have played a role.

Ordonez – Was once again a starter but he missed a month with an injury. His OPS+ dropped to … triple checks … 36 but he won his first Gold Glove Award.

Garrett – Matched his 454 PA from his rookie season, despite the Mets trading for Joe Foy to play his position. Saw his OPS+ rise to 118, thanks in no small part to a doubling of his walk rate.

Of the nine rookies with an OPS+ in Baty’s ballpark, seven of them began the following season as a starter. Garrett played the whole season in the majors and ultimately reclaimed his position from Foy. Only Gardenhire really didn’t see significant time as a starter, with just 10 games where he was in the lineup for first pitch. And that was 40 years ago.

Baty has time to turn things around somewhat and at the very least to get above the Galvis Line this year. And it wouldn’t be a shock if he produced gains in his second season like Mazzilli, Wigginton, Lagares and Garrett did.

It’s not impossible that the Mets will look to replace Baty in the offseason. While he did not have enough PA in his rookie season to make this list, the Mets traded for Robinson Cano to bump Jeff McNeil into a reserve role at the start of the 2019 season. Like Garrett, McNeil ultimately reclaimed his status as a starter. Not only that, he turned in his best offensive season. If only McNeil could turn on the ball and hit homers like he did that season again…

But the big difference between Baty and McNeil is that the former was a first-round pick and widely considered one of the club’s top prospects from the moment he signed. McNeil was a 12th-round pick who had a little buzz before running into injury problems that many felt would keep him from the majors. Well, that and our current GM isn’t trying to find homes for his former clients.

Barring injury or trade, it would shock me if Baty wasn’t the starting 3B when Opening Day 2024 arrives. And that’s said while counting him as one of the team’s biggest disappointments in 2023, right up there with McNeil. It’s next to impossible for me to believe that he’ll be in a reserve role or in the minors at the start of next season. But as Matsui will tell you, just because you begin the year as a starter doesn’t mean you’ll end the campaign in the same role.