You can’t rebuild in New York, or so they say. Maybe we need to amend that to say repurpose, Billy Eppler’s word after they traded Max Scherzer. The repurpose marches on, as the Mets have dealt Justin Verlander to the Astros for minor league outfielders Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford, just hours before today’s trade deadline. Joel Sherman reports that the Mets are paying $35 million this year and next and they will pay $17.5 million if Verlander’s 2025 option vests. Wow!
Gilbert was the Astros’ top prospect. However, that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. He did not make Keith Law’s mid-season top 60 list, nor was he one of the 19 honorable mentions, the level where Kevin Parada, Alexander Ramirez and Jett Williams reside. The Astros’ first-round pick in 2022, the 5’9 Gilbert has great speed and good power, too. Additionally, he’s been described as “fiery.” In 264 PA this year in Double-A, the 22-year-old Gilbert has a .241/.342/.371 line. Gilbert started the year in Hi-A and had great numbers in 95 PA, earning the promotion. He’s a center fielder.
Clifford has also earned a mid-season promotion, albeit a level below Gilbert at both stops. While Gilbert is a poor man’s five-tool talent prospect, Clifford is a power guy. He has 18 HR in 371 PA in his age-19 season, he just turned 20 two weeks ago, with 16 of those coming at the higher level of A+. In his last 18 games and 74 PA, Clifford is slashing .313/.365/.641 with 6 HR. He’s not much of a defensive player but hit like that and you live with the glove.
The money the Mets are eating on both this deal and the Scherzer one is staggering. Yeah, Cohen’s rich. But that’s not the ultimate point. That money has significant value to other teams, even if not the same value to Cohen. I like the two prospects here combined better than the one prospect in the Scherzer deal. But it’s my opinion that the player traded plus the money is worth more than the prospect(s) received in both deals.
You don’t want to go down a path that isn’t working. But was the 2023 path of the Mets not working because of Verlander and Scherzer? It’s my opinion that the failure of the offense and the failure of Eppler’s bullpen is way, way more the cause of the team’s poor record to date than the production of the two old aces. So, it’s disappointing to me to get rid of guys who are performing for good but not great prospects. And then pay a bunch of money, too.
Was this Eppler’s decision, to move on from the aces? Or was it thrust upon him by Cohen? None of us know the answer to that for sure. But my guess is that Eppler was told to trade them and he did the best he could. Maybe these three prospects are all better than my opinion today. We may look back at this in five years and congratulate Eppler for what he accomplished. If that’s the way this plays out, I’ll be leading the cheering for the GM. But there’s no way on earth that’s happening today.
Now the question is who replaces Verlander in the rotation. There are no good options at Syracuse so get ready for another round of Tylor Megill.
Based on what is being reported, Houston was where Verlander wanted to be and apparently would only accept a trade there. At the time of his signing, who could have anticipated that we’d be unloading him inside of Year 1?! But Verlander and his agent negotiated this right to dictate this type of deal so the Mets had to live with it. Getting their two best prospects is some kind of haul but it would have been nice to grab one of their pitching prospects even though they are lower rated.
It appears that there’s more coming. That Pham is lasting this long might mean that there’s a bidding war. Narvaez seems to be in play too. What’s the betting line on whether Vogey gets moved or not? Ditto on Carrasco?
I think whats clear is that the capture lightning in a bottle with aging aces is not worth investing 2 or 3 more years of burning million dollar bills. In both cases Cohen is getting money off the top and lux tax relief that will inevitably be spun into big contracts down the road.
I think looking at the return is only a fraction of the transactions. What is clear is that by the time this is over and Pham is gone, a half dozen new minor leaguers will be shaking up the pipeline. Cohen had the money to give this a spin, and had the team come up woth 90 wins and still fall short none of this would be going down. The fact is the players only need to look at themselves. Its also clear this team needs to be shaken to the roots. We’ve all see that the team chemistry is pretty poor, with no one able to seemingly carry the team and have others rally behind. Instead we get the disease of one no one hits, all dont hit. Everyone on the team now understands this is real. Play or dont cry about the consequences.
Neither Scherzer nor Verlander were here longer than a NY minute. Worst things could be happening.
So instead they’re going to burn million dollar bills with no chance of competing at all, as Cohen will be paying more than half of what they were owed for them to pitch elsewhere all while having no one in the org who can come close to giving what the veterans were.
I could have gotten behind this strategy if they got better prospects. Everyone’s wowed with the prospect they got for Scherzer but if his name was Alejandro Flores people would be singing a different tune. And Acuna is the better prospect than the two guys they got today, even if I like the upside of the two guys combined more than the upside of Acuna.
Finally, if today ends with Verlander being dealt and Pham still on the team, I think I’ll lose my mind.
I dont really understand your position. This team got lucky with 101 wins last year, and doing below Howard this year, after dumping nearly 500M$. The present squad is not worth doubling down especially with aging arms at the top of the rotation. I couldnt care less about losing MS or JV. the only major pitcher that was worse was deGrom. Im surprised at least, a little about who came back. Again, the original money is sunk costs, and now Cohen will not have to pay full freight for what is clearly nothing for moving this team forward. Hopefully the return will give us a couple solid players for the long term. There is also clarity that the catch lightning in a bottle was worth a try, but didnt work. Cohen is not gonna dump heaping piles of money for failure.
There’s simply no way 24 can be nearly as disappointing as this lousy season has been! But to say for 25 and 26 means there still is very little time. I dont see Ohtani in the sweepstakes anymore though
Your position is the Mets got lucky in 2022
My position is the Mets were unlucky in 2023
And the reason for the 2023 bad luck or under performance or whatever term you want to use starts with Marte and McNeil, not Scherzer and Verlander. From a pure performance POV, Baty has more to do with this season being a disappointment than the pitchers. And Alonso may or may not be as much of a disappointment as the pitchers. He’s at least in the conversation.
With JV gone, that leaves Senga as the only above average SP. I’d rather not see Megill and Peterson return. That means having to sign at least 3 and maybe 4 SP free agents next year. There are plenty on the market, but that’s a lot of deals having to fall in place and a lot of money. And that’s before addressing uncertainty in RF and LF and low production at 3B and DH. What’s the plan for next year?
Few kids come up and put up great numbers. Almost all of them struggle. Alvarez has been the exception though he’s had his droughts. If the Mets were wrong about Baty, Vientos, and Mauricio, then there’s no point in scouting. Let them play even if they struggle again next year. In due time we ought to have a very formidable offense. The Mets have a long history of giving up too quickly on kids. Hopefully the Cohen administration will do a much better job with their prospects.
Pham to Arizona
Nice catch!
The commissioner should have intervened and cancelled the Verlander deal due to it clearly being one-sided. Astro owner Crane may jeopardize his health from laughing so hard. I give Cohen credit for trying and spending tons on the old men pitchers, but it basically meant the Mets could only move Verlander to the Astros. This may be better than banging on the bucket to call pitches for Houston. Geez.
I think you’re looking at the money issue incorrectly. The salaries given to Scherzer and Verlander are a sunk cost. What matters for the future isn’t what they are eating but rather what they are gaining in the future. Assuming all the money the Astors and Rangers are taking on are for next year, that is $22.5 mil for Scherzer next year, $23 mil for Verlander next year. Let’s just round and say $45 mil saved next year.
A normal team with a finite budget who chooses to reinvest could then apply the $45 mil to be used for Free agents. So it’s not just Scherzer + Verlander given up for those 3 prospects, but also $45 mil worth of tbd free agent(s), which last year could have paid for a year’s worth of Nimmo and Diaz, or 3-4 worth of slightly lesser players.
And from Cohen’s view if he doesn’t decided to respend that money, well then he doesn’t just save the $45 mil, but also another $15-30 mil worth of luxury tax for a total savings of $60-75 mil! We know he’s not a penny pincher when it comes to baseball but still you don’t become a billionaire without knowing the value of a dollar and not spending when you can.
Exactly. Sunk costs. this is saving real money and lux tax real money.
I completely understand the notion of sunken cost, the clawback of that spend, and the additional savings due to the avoidance of taxation penalties. That is all good for the Mets and for Cohen in that it’s classic cutting of losses, but it is still bad.
But, there are 2 sides to each trade. The Astros are tremendous benefactors of the Mets disintegration. Age aside, Verlander is still an elite pitcher, a top 5 starter. He is the reigning AL Cy Young winner, and it is clear that he is rounding into form now after his injury-delayed response. He is not Scherzer. The Astros are getting him for 1/3 of this season at a cost of $6 million, all of 2024 at about $17.5 million, and if he is healthy, all of 2025 at $17.5 million. The Astro farm system is not deep, and their former top prospect ranking as low as 68 reflects that.
From the Astro perspective, this is a heist. And, it is very likely, the Mets may have been able to get a better return from other teams, at the same monetary cost, had Verlander been willing to go to other destinations. If the Astros win the series again this year, Uncle Steve and Eppler should be voted a full playoff share.
Because the headlines don’t spell out what a clawback and opportunity cost looks like it’s easy forget to consider it in our our heads.
What can 17.5 mil buy these days? Probably around a #3 starter. Looking at the FA class I see Jordan Montgomery or Jack Flaherty as guys who might sign in that range.
Would you feel differently if the headlines said Verlander for Montgomery plus 2 prospects? You trade down from a #1 to #3 plus get 2 prospects, that doesn’t seem like a robbery to me
And pay all the money due Verlander? Then, no. If the Mets got the two prospects, paid the $35-$52.5 million, and got back a guy Verlander is replacing, say a low cost controllable #5 that could eat innings the next 2 years better than a Peterson or Megill, I’d feel better.
Part of this “repurpose” is going to be to get under that tax threshold in 2024 or 2025 and reset the penalties…the headlines don’t point that out either. That’s essentially what Scherzer said Eppler told him with a wink wink nod nod. With all that dead money the next couple of years, they could be really bad.
“If the Mets got the two prospects, paid the $35-$52.5 million, and got back a guy Verlander is replacing, say a low cost controllable #5 that could eat innings the next 2 years better than a Peterson or Megill, I’d feel better.”
That’s exactly what i’m saying has occurred… but even better because it’s a #3 not a #5. The money that the Mets are saving on Verlander is enough to sign a #3 starter (should they choose to compete), it just hasn’t happened yet. People are missing the opportunity cost here.
Jordan Montgomery is essentially a 3-win pitcher, which should mean something around an AAV of $24 million. He’s younger than Bassitt, who entered free agency last year with two years the equivalent that Montgomery will have three years of when he’s a free agent. Can’t see him signing for less than what Bassitt got. Edit: Bassitt got 3/$63
Jack Flaherty is an interesting case. On the negative side, he had two straight injury-shortened years before this one. On the plus side, 2024 will be his age-28 season and he already has a 4.7 fWAR season under his belt. Maybe he signs for the money they saved but I wouldn’t want to wager on that.
To me, there are two other things to discuss other than the money “saved” that could be spent on a SP:
1. Will they actually spend that money? If what Eppler allegedly told Scherzer is true, it doesn’t seem like Cohen will want to match 2023 payroll if there are no expectations of competing in 2024.
2. What if you don’t believe the prospects are all that super?
My answer to your 2nd question : I see the prospects in this case as the secondary piece in this trade. The money should be viewed as the primary return yet most people brush it off because it’s less “tangible” and harder to discuss.
My view is that the trade down from Verlander to a hypothetical #3-like starter with the money for the prospects was fair enough.
Could they have done better? I wouldn’t argue against if you believed that.
For your first question, Cohen could very well pocket that money for next year. As a 3rd party, us fans would see no benefit from that move but in terms of trade analysis it still has to be considered.
For the record, I’m not blaming Eppler for not getting more. I think he and the FO did the best they could under the circumstances. Both pitchers having no-trade clauses made it tough, especially in Verlander’s case.
I think the blame falls on the decision to punt on this year and next, which my best guess tells me was an ownership decision.
Originally, the plan was to spend big until the farm system could produce. Cohen approved all of the spending and then the first time it looks dicey he bails. Yeah, I know, easy to say, not my money.
We were sold a story about how much of a fan Cohen is and he was ready, willing and able to take short-term losses to win now and in the future. Instead, we’re going to lose now and in the future so he can recoup some of the money he fronted. It’s too close to a bait-and-switch for my liking and I’m glad I’m not a season-ticket holder.
Man you are one tough (non) customer. Cohen decides to reign it in just a bit and you turn on him.
On a semi related note, I was relentlessly called and emailed for months earlier in the year by a sales rep about buying season tickets… just an aggressive rep or maybe some directive from the top?
Name, all your logic is completely sound. We can debate the value of the prospects, certainly. The $17.5 million saved from a sunk cost is real, and it can be converted into a lower caliber starter than Verlander, yup. However, based upon “body language” and Scherzer leaks, that is very unlikely to happen. Part of this “repurpose” has to get below the luxury tax threshold and reset. To do that, they are going to have very little spending money for 2024 to come up with this downgraded starter. The same may be true for 2025.
Uncle Steve went big and lost big. Despite his business savvy that made him Uber-wealthy, I doubt he gave ample consideration to the possibility of what actually happened. He was a medical opinion away from compounding the disaster with Carlos Correa, he of iffy ankle and current .695 OPS. While fans, including me, appreciated his crazy spending in the name of the fans, he bought himself into a dead end that with take years to fix, unless he maintains the appetite to pay massive luxury tax on a team that will be a non-contender or fringe wild card contender at most.
He probably needs to deal Alonso and/or Diaz…can he and Eppler possibly get back some MLB ready pitching for those guys? They are close to $220 million in 2024 without arb salaries. This will be interesting and can get ugly.
Memo to Uncle Steve, $ don’t buy happiness nor WS victories.
OMG did they trade Gary sand Ron too?
Now this was a good line.
I was ok with the return for Scherzer, but I think the return for Verlander was very light. If Verlander was only willing to go to Houston, then Eppler probably had little choice in the matter. Either way, I’m thinking that the Mets are looking at this as just using Cohen’s wealth to stock the farm. Their chances of making the postseason were low, so might as well get as much as they can for their tradeable assets and sweeten the pot with Cohen dollars. They could go down the same path this offseason and buy some high-priced talent to reload and put a competitive team on the field next season. If money is not an obstacle, and it doesn’t appear to be right now, then they can sign 2 or 3 of the top starters next year and a hitter or two and try again. They’d be in the same position as they are now, but with a much deeper minor league system and some young major league starting players. I know Cohen is not going to continue to spend on high priced players just to give them away for another team, but basically, they just bought a deeper farm system. Whether that works out or not, only time will tell.
Eppler had no leverage with Verlander. If Verlander said I will go to these five teams we would have gotten more. So, be it. Eppler was quoted as telling Scherzer that the Mets are rebuilding for 2025 and 2026. I don’t believe it. Cohen loves the Mets and is too competitive to just give away a year or two.
So, the question is, who in 2024 pitches for the Mets? It may be puzzling that they really didn’t trade for any pitchers except Jarvis. My thought is, the strategy will be, trade for young talent to put on the field, but buy pitchers. I can see them signing Yamamoto and Snell.
Another fascinating question is what do they do with Alonso? He is looking for a big payday. Is he worth it? I’m not sure, but after this year, I don’t think so. I would trade him in the offseason.
McNeil, I just have a feeling he won’t be in the team next year. I really want to see what Mauricio can do.
This season Verlander is a #2 starting pitcher trending upward to be a #1. He is 40 year old. In the Mets system ,there aren’t any prospects in the Met system to replace him next year. There are a few younger free agent starting pitchers that are a #1 or #2 that will be available. So long as Cohen repurposes the money in off season, then eventually it will be a good deal. The two outfield prospects enhances their minor league system, a goal that Cohen aspired to do when he bought the team.
Verlander is giving solid starts but remember a number 1 not only pitches well, but also pitches long, otherwise its deleterious to the pen. (as it has been). So far in 23, JV only has 16 starts after missing the first month and has pitched 94 1/3 innings (282 outs), for something like a shade under 6 IP per game. He does have an excellent 5.5 pitches per out, just not enough outs per game. Last year he was 5 PPO and 6 1/3 IP per game.
It is hard to believe that stretched to a whole season the totality of what he offers offsets what he is not giving because of injury and decreasing effeciency. Its also hard to believe that he will also defeat Father Time after another year or even 2 years.
The Mets are looking to get younger all over the field. They will be active in FA over winter in order to play in 24, but also to set up 25 and beyond.
I maintain the team is out of balance with seniority structure and total age. Compared woth the Braves, for example, we need more players across the entire field closer in age to have a conrtollable core, augmented by (1) well placed vets and (2) young vets for long contracts like Juan Soto.
In his last 9 starts, 55.1 IP, Verlander has a 1.95 ERA. That’s better than solid. If I have a guy pitching six innings per start at that ratio – I don’t blame him for not having 81 IP in this stretch – I blame the GM for not having constructed a better bullpen.
How many SP are averaging much more than what Verlander has given over the past two months? Gerrit Cole has made 22 starts and leads the AL with 136.1 IP. That’s less than 6.1 IP per game. And he leads the league in innings!
There are 4 pitchers in the NL with more innings than Cole. Sandy Alcantara leads with 143.1 IP. That’s a shade under 6.2 IP per start. But he’s got a 4.21 ERA, which seems to matter here.
You seem to be operating under a false assumption, that there are pitchers doing significantly better than what Verlander has given here the last two months. Now, it’s fair to speculate what he would give going forward. But given what he’s producing right now, he’s one of the five best pitchers in the game.
Over their last nine games, with a minimum of 45 IP, only two pitchers have a better ERA than Verlander. Blake Snell has a 0.72 ERA in 50.1 IP while Michael Wacha has a 1.33 ERA in 54.1 IP. Verlander’s 55.1 IP ranks 15th in the majors. Alcantara leads with 60 IP but has a 3.45 ERA over his last nine games.
Nobody expect SP to throw 300 IP any more. Perhaps you need to stop thinking they should be averaging 21 outs per start.
I cant get my head around why you are so enamored with this team (and its “dream” to make the post season) which by every measure imaginable is the most disappointing in modern baseball history given the payroll. The team has showed almost zero life. They have won 3 or more times in a row 6 times all season only twice since the start of June. Fan graphs has the team at 5% to make playoffs. The team is so bad on many fronts and has not showed any steady change for the better. Instead they find ways to lose games day after day at the scale of a team with 1/4 the payroll. Obviously you see a different team, one where doubling down while losing was the answer. I dont see that all.
I think there are at least three different issues at work here.
1. Was this team capable of making a playoff run this year? I’ve already said that odds were against it. But there was at least some minimal chance before, while now there’s none.
2. Was this team with offseason additions capable of making the playoffs in 2024? I’d say yes.
3. Did what they get in return for what they gave up measure up? My answer is no.
I can accept your premise – even if I don’t agree with it – that this team was broken and needed a restart. But what they got in return for a marginal chance at the playoffs this year and a good chance in 2024 just didn’t add up for me. Now, if any or all three players they got are better than what I think, well, that means I’ll be wrong on #3 above. And I’ll own that.
But if Verlander keeps pitching like an SP1 and Scherzer like an SP2, like they have for the last two months or so, in 2024, others will have to own that.
All we can do right now is offer opinions on what we think will happen in the future. Today, it sounds like Cohen isn’t going to carry a 2024 payroll like the one he had this year. But that could very easily change. Maybe in the offseason they aggressively shop at the top of the free agent market and get strong replacements for Scherzer and Verlander for 2024 and beyond. If they sign two pitchers like that, it will be different from what I expect here on 8/2. Instead, I see a massive decrease in payroll to get under at least some, if not all, of the payroll tax thresholds.
Perhaps you need to stop thinking they should be averaging 21 outs per start.
I expect *exactly* (well 19-21) that for 43.33M$ per year. We all know the way the pen imporves is by having starters pitch more, not less.
Well, after starting the season on the IL and taking a bit to get straightened out, Verlander is one of the few pitchers in baseball who has averaged 19 outs per start. No one gives 21 outs.