Disregarding for a moment the decision to sell, here’s my take on the trades the Mets made in the past week:
David Robertson – Got good value
Max Scherzer – Didn’t like the return
Mark Canha – Seems like a fair trade
Justin Verlander – Didn’t like the return
Tommy Pham – Somewhere between the Canha and Robertson deal, likely closer to Canha
Dominic Leone – This is even more on the margins than Pham but when you flip a waiver pickup for a guy with a little upside, that’s a pretty good move.
Phil Bickford & Adam Kolarek – Mets needed the bodies. Maybe the lefty Kolarek can pitch without balking.
*****
While it’s not what I would have done, the decision to punt 2023 was very reasonable, given how far back the club was and how many teams were in the way of them getting a playoff berth. Having said that, the Mets, in a season where plenty had gone wrong, were 43-36 thru the end of July, without the results from the cursed month of June.
My preference would have been to have added two relievers who you could feel confident that would be at least league average and then rolled the dice with better performances from the veterans the final two months. Maybe Brett Baty, Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil continued to give the club virtually nothing the rest of the way. Maybe Verlander, Scherzer, Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana gave them a much better chance to win than when they were throwing Tylor Megill and David Peterson out there earlier in the year and Scherzer had yet to hit his stride.
There were 57 games remaining at the beginning of August. If they played at the .544 winning percentage of the non-June months, they would have had 31 more wins. That’s a .500 record, 81-81. With better starting pitching from the holdovers and better relief pitching from my proposed reliever acquisitions – could they have made a run at the last Wild Card?
Odds would be against it. But would you rather have, say, a 30% chance of the playoffs this year and an 80% chance of the playoffs in 2024 or would you rather have 0% chance of the playoffs this year and next, along with Luisangel Acuna, Ryan Clifford and Drew Gilbert? It all comes down to how you view the prospects. Let’s hope they turn out better than Luis Castillo, Lucas Duda and Jay Payton.
Psst… login seems to be broken.
David Robertson deal was really good value, agreed. I had no issues with who the Mets got in return for a rental closer.
Max Scherzer deal wasn’t a slam dunk and the Mets really should have gotten pitching back on one of their big pitcher deals. I feel like Eppler isn’t aware that starting pitching was the problem with 2023. I do think the Mets have an MLB caliber regular here with some star potential.
Mark Canha deal isn’t great but Canha had minimal value so it’s fair. I can’t see Jarvis being on a rotation for a winning baseball team.
Justin Verlander deal makes very little sense as it’s two solid players whom the Mets don’t directly need and they are years away from making impacts. This deal makes me want Eppler gone.
Tommy Pham deal has a 16 year old kid coming back to the Mets. I guess this could turn out to be a coup or a fart in the wind.
Dominic Leone deal is something for nothing.
1. I always find it interesting that all of us have ideas about who we would have picked over what a trade deal delivers. I imagine the phone calls are pretty tense, and the best deals dont always come with the direct hole that needs filling. Even still, the team has a dearth of OF and sadly lacking at 2B (and even 3B). Yes the team needs pitching. Its no secret. The team needs a lof of things. I dont see there was any chance at all at even an .500 season this year. Losing teams sell. Its not a crime. The goal has always been to improve the entire organization at all levels. This was a chance to inject some new faces in the pipeline which had to be done. And Cohen has kept his word. A few weeks back at his press conference it was clear he was giving the team a shot across the bow to stand tall or else. The team got “or else”.
2. Im really looking forward to your next pipeline report. All these transactions have definitely impacted the top 20 and even top 10.
Hey,we still got Vogelbach. He’s ready to go on a tear.
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH
Jeff McNeil has 430 PA and an 84 OPS+
Brett Baty has 293 PA and an 80 OPS+
Starling Marte has 333 PA and a 79 OPS+
You can add all of the criticisms directed at these three players and it doesn’t come close to that directed at Vogelbach, who has 225 PA and a 95 OPS+. There are three hitters who have been significantly worse than Vogelbach, all with significantly more PA. And two of them earn significantly more money.
If you were to list the top 20 reasons the 2023 Mets have a record under .500 at the trade deadline, Vogelbach wouldn’t make the list. He hasn’t met expectations this season. But neither have Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo. And, again, he’s making pennies compared to those guys.
I don’t want to hear any more complaints about Vogelbach until people start addressing the real reasons the team stinks. Someone wanted to know why I insisted that we name names and not just say “the offense.” Well, this is why.
Mets are 19th in runs scored and 18th in ERA. Four below-average hitters in the lineup (McNeil, Baty, Marte, and Vogelbach) will kill any offense, especially with that production from bat-first slots like DH and RF. The good performance from SP came from Senga and JV. Max was league average, not a $43 MM ace.
That’s why they stink.
Only hope for a good season next year is a bounce-back year from McNeil, production from the farm, and signing 3 SPs.
Unless McNeil around this year than he will traded in the off season. Cohen said, “Hope is not a strategy”.
Eppler a real good job at the deadline in these four trades. He bulk up the minor league system and he traded players that will no longer be on the 2024 team.
1. Robertson, was the best deal. Obtained two prospects, ranked 20th or below in Miami system.
2. Pham obtained a young prospect that essentially was a high 4th draft pick.
3. Canha the Mets weren’t going to pick up his option. Obtained the #12 prospect in the Brewers for Canha and $4.5m.
Pham and Cahna deals has opened up leftfield and DH positions for Mauricio and Vientos.
4. Leone had a expiring contract. Obtain the #9 prospect in the Angels system (according to MLB rankings).
Obviously the Mets are going to retool their pitching staff in 2024. There will be a few younger available in free agency. Next year, maybe Eppler will give the bullpen some thought.
I was surprised that Scherzer and Verlander were traded.
I understand the reasoning though.
Not a big Billy Eppler fan but he killed it this trade deadline he got three elite prospects for a declining 38 and 40 year old. Also got another for a rental reliever.
David – good to see you in these parts again!
I think calling the prospects he got “elite” is a stretch. Acuna is the best one and he’s ranked 58th in Keith Law’s midseason update.
I guess elite is a bit in the eye of the beholder. Just taking a quick look at MLBs pipeline rankings shows the trades have now put 4 new faces in the top 10 prospects. Regardless of Keith Law’s prognostications, this means that the farm has definitely improved. Dumping 500M$ on a team year after year was clearly not Cohens plan, but a bridge to get to moving quality players through the farm system and augment with the right trades and FA signings. He spent a fortune, it clearly was a failure, and now its time to shore up the other elements of the franchise. Its exactly what he said would happen. The 3-5 year window for a WS was rookie arrogance, and the misguided belief a check book necessarily instantly means winning.
No one is arguing that the farm hasn’t improved. The relevant question is – has it improved enough?
I know you don’t pretend to be a minor league expert. But I just compared the big three guys they got to three Mets: Luis Castillo, Lucas Duda and Jay Payton. Those three guys combined for 37 years in the majors. I think we should be thrilled if our three new prospects matched that. That being said — how would you feel if these three guys turned in what those three did for the Mets?
Chris, don’t forget, you traded two aces and for that you definitely are getting good prospects. What we are debating is if they were good enough.
I live in Astros country, and they love Gilbert. But all these guys are prospects. Don’t forget how many Profars and Kelenics need years to become what we imagined, or just never do. My take was that I didn’t want to trade Verlander; Scherzer was fine. I liked all the trades except for Verlander because replacing him will be too hard.
Of course, prospects. That’s exactly what Cohen valued to improve the pipeline. This is what happens. After the staggering amount of money for a complete, replete, and unconditional failure of the team from top to bottom this is what happens. It would have been disingenuous to reinvest in a team this unbalanced and financially way out of proportion. He saved a lot of money on sunk costs, and got players back that really change our top 10. Tough to swallow? Sure. Reality aint always pretty.
Baseball prospectus sees Gilbert, and Acuna as top fifty prospects and Clifford and Vargas as top 100 guys maybe I should have written really good prospects.
Picking up a lot of lower level prospects (age wise). Even if all of them make it to the major leagues; most we won’t see till 2026 or later. Maybe some of them will add trade value for the SP needs for 2024 & 2025.
All the comments above were well thought out and I’ve no argument re: what the Mets FO did. I really was surprised by them moving Verlander though, and the returns just didn’t make sense.
So for 2024 we have Senga, Quintanna, and ?
Well, considering the amount of present and future salary they have to cough for the 6 players they traded, I think they could have gotten better prospects.
Also, I’ve been thinking about the role pure luck plays in baseball standings/results.
My impression is that the Mets experienced an excess of good luck in 22 and an excess of bad luck in 23, but clearly not enough of either to explain a significant amount of the difference in the results from 22 to 23.
Is there a way to measure luck, besides the Pythagorean Method?
The Mets played 2 wins better than the PM would suggest in 22
And are currently 2 games worse than the PM would suggest in 23
But I think that doesn’t come close to measuring their bad luck this year
For example, it is my impression that towards the end of Alonso’s recent prolonged slump, he was hitting a number of lasers directly into opposing gloves
It’s impossible to get a complete measure of luck. I wouldn’t read too much into a 2-game Pythagorean difference, Now, if a team deviated 8 games from Pythagoras, like the 1969 Mets did, I’d say they were lucky.
Another measure of luck on a team basis would be to compare their overall record to their record in one-run games and blowouts, which Baseball-Reference describes as games with a margin of victory of at least five runs. When I was a kid, they liked to say that good teams know how to win the close ones. But the truth is that the close ones have as much to do with luck as they do skill. But you can’t luck your way to a good record in blowouts. The overwhelming majority of time, a team that has a good record in blowouts will have a good overall record. The 2022 Mets were 31-19 in blowouts and 101-61 overall That’s a .620 winning percentage in blowouts and a .623 overall. This year, the Mets have a .462 record in blowouts and a .467 overall. The 2022 Mets were worse in one-run games than they were overall and this year they’re .500 in one-run games. One thing that plays a big factor in one-run games is your bullpen. Up until now, the Mets have done a very good job keeping leads late because of Robertson/Raley/Ottavino. We’ll see what happens now that they’re down to just two good late relievers.
On an individual basis, one of the best ways to measure luck is with BABIP. The rule of thumb is that a .300 BABIP is normal. This year, MLB has a .297 BABIP. But what’s normal for the group doesn’t always translate to what’s normal for an individual. Alonso has a lifetime .262 BABIP. If he had a year with a .300 BABIP, he would be hitting in good luck. This year, he has a .195 BABIP, which means he’s hitting in some bad luck, like the line drives you mentioned.
On a team level, we look for luck in runs and it’s hard to say that with the runs the Mets have given up and scored that they’ve been either lucky or not lucky. But on an individual level, we have a bunch of players who are some combination of under-performing and unlucky. We can’t say that Alonso’s 67 points below his lifetime BABIP is all luck. But it’s part of it. And it plays that way with every Met hitter who’s under-performing their BABIP. And there are a bunch of them.
I have questions about the MLB draft. (1) What will the Mets payroll be after the trade deadline for the purposes of luxury tax and the draft? (2) If the Mets fall into the lottery and their present payroll is too high would they fall 10 places out of the lottery or are lottery teams immune to such penalties? I’m dreaming of the kind of player we might get if we qualify for the lottery. There seem to be 4 or5 studs in next year’s draft.
The Mets lost their #1 pick this year due to excess payroll. They are almost at the 2024 lux tax limit before arb-signings….Alonso alone will be over $20 million and who will pitch? To stay under the tax threshold and regain a #1 pick, the Mets may need to strip off more assets and become a 100 loss team. Baltimore, Washington, Pittsburgh…and the Mets. The “re-purposes”.
So, to be clear, if the Mets are way over the threshold due, in part by the dead money, they will drop ten places even though they qualify for the lottery? Is that correct?
“Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.”
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax
The first level is $237 million in 2024. So it would be advantageous to the Mets to get below $277 million. However, there is a lottery for a spot in the top six. So, theoretically, the Mets could finish with say, the 10th-worst record, yet still get a top-six pick.
I believe there is a plan that nobody is talking about. The Mets have the potential to field a young team over the next two years that features young controllable and inexpensive players. They will buy their pitchers in free agency. Senga cost $ 15 million per year. Maybe they sign Yamamoto for the same deal. So, that is two starters for what Lindor costs.
I have a gut feeling that they will trade Alonso this offseason. After this year, do we want to break the bank for him with an extension?
This is my expectation, that the Mets don’t shop in the high-end of free agency next year. I don’t believe they are going to spend big to replace Scherzer and Verlander and that the type of deal you are suggesting is at the very high end of what they will do.
I think it’s optimistic, after the success of Senga, that Yamamoto will sign for the same salary.
Matt Olson and Pete Alonso have very similar stats. Olsen is 1 year older and signed for 8/$168m. Therefore an extension of Alonso is worth 8/ $184m and not unreasonable.