If we didn’t know it beforehand, one thing that 2022 drove home without a doubt is that MLB players don’t perform within a short range of production over the entire season. Instead, they have peaks and valleys and there’s no limit to either the number or the height of those streaks. Two players were very similar last year, in that they weren’t very special most of the season but then they enjoyed a six-week hot streak which made their year-long numbers look good. Those two were Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar.
We saw the six-week hot streak again this year with Tommy Pham. Since the end of his streak, Pham has a .157/.295/.235 line in 61 PA, which includes an 0-3 in his first game with the Rangers. Pham’s streak came at an opportune time for the Mets, as it allowed them to trade him near the height of his value.
While thinking about streaks and highs and lows for MLB hitters, let’s take a moment to consider minor leaguers in this same vein. How many times thru the years has a player gotten a promotion, either from the minors to the majors or even just to a higher level of the minors, only for that player to struggle? You can probably name half a dozen guys right off the top of your head. And what’s the explanation? It’s something along the lines of, “Player X is having a tough time adjusting to the new level.” But what if that’s not it at all?
What if the level has far less importance than we’ve always been told and instead it’s just a matter of the player going thru the normal peak/valley process of the season?
With that in mind, let’s look at Ronny Mauricio. Many of us wanted the Mets to promote Mauricio earlier this season, as the Mets were struggling for offense and Mauricio was tearing the cover off the ball at Triple-A. Instead, the Mets have kept him in Syracuse all season up to this point.
At the end of May, Mauricio had a .344/.385/.563 line. And then in June, Mauricio hit .202 with a .620 OPS – a far cry from what he had done at the same level the first two months of the season. If instead of putting those numbers up in Syracuse, Mauricio did that after a call-up to the majors – everyone would say he wasn’t ready for the big time. But since he did it at the same level, it’s just the normal ebb and flow of the season.
It seems crazy.
Which brings us to Mark Vientos. Earlier this year, Vientos got a promotion from Syracuse and after killing it in the minors, Vientos has a .469 OPS in 16 games, which earns him a trip back to Syracuse. Many people blamed sporadic playing time for the poor output. And to be clear, it certainly didn’t help. But what if it was just time where he was due for a cold spell? It’s something we need to at least consider.
Vientos is back in the majors again and this time he’s 9-32 and has a .281/.314/.469 triple-slash output. And everyone says it’s because he’s playing every day. No doubt, that helps. But is it really all of the explanation?
Unfortunately, there’s not much grey area right now when it comes to Brett Baty. He earned an early promotion to the majors because of a really hot start at Syracuse. And then he continued to hit well early on in the majors. Baty had a .915 OPS after 13 games with the Mets. But since then, it’s been a giant mountain of suck.
In 70 games and 254 PA, Baty has a .202/.268/.307 line and it’s even worse lately, as he has a .111 AVG in his last 11 games. It’s a large enough sample that we can be very worried about him. At the same time, he’s a six-week hot streak away from looking okay. Let’s circle back to Canha and Escobar for some comparisons.
Canha had a .742 OPS in his first 79 games and 308 PA with a .110 ISO. Then, in his next 104 PA, Canha had a .977 OPS with a .258 ISO. After the six weeks were up, Canha returned to the same power-less hitter he was earlier, with a .101 ISO in his final 130 PA.
One powerful stretch saved his season.
Escobar’s streak was the same, except his came at the very end of the season, with no corresponding drop off like what we saw with Canha last year or that we’re seeing now with Pham. In his first 104 games last year, Escobar had a .646 OPS. Then in his final 129 PA, Escobar had a .982 OPS. Just like Canha, the perception of Escobar’s season changed in that hot six weeks.
Baty sits with a .631 OPS overall right now, even worse than Escobar’s mark in late August last season. There’s certainly no guarantee that he will go on a six-week hot streak at any point the rest of the way. But what if he does? The narrative from the mainstream media will be that he finally made the leap to being an MLB hitter, that he made the necessary adjustments. And maybe that will be true.
Still, we should be suspicious. Neither Canha nor Escobar were able to sustain their hot stretches into this season. And early returns on Pham are not encouraging, either. The takeaway here is not that we should think Baty is a bust who never will be a productive MLB hitter. It’s just that if he goes on a streak like the .982 OPS of 2022 Escobar over some 100-PA stretch here at the end, we shouldn’t think that’s his new true-talent level.
Instead, if that happens, all it really means is that he ended the year on an up note.
Streaks are certainly part of baseball and there is an assumption that the really good hitters have some very good streaks and limited bad streaks but I have no data to back that up except the notion that a good hitter whose average and OPS are staying steady or climbing would indicate more good than bad. The hope is that your teammates will pick you up when you are slumping and vice a versa. There is a big adjustment for players when they make the leap to the big club and many are not ready to sustain what they had done in the minors. Sometimes it just takes patience. But as you pointed out the issues with Baty are that he is slumping both at the plate and in the field. Seems like last year our fielding and hitting were above average until the late season meltdown. That’s where really good hitting and fielding coaches come to play. Expect some serious coaching changes for 2024.
Who knew? Hitters have streaks,both cold and hot.
So, you can snark – congrats – mom and dad must be proud.
How about weighing in on something important. Do you think we should treat rookie hitters struggling in their first exposure to the majors as a cold streak rather than an inability to hit at the level?
If you believe in them bass on minor leagues and what your scouts see keep running them out there. If the only other options are 4 A guys or over the hill vets keep running them out there.