It’s always good to consider things from different angles because no one has a monopoly on truth. So, who better for me to have a discussion about the Mets trade deadline deals than Chris Flanders? Having the Mets be sellers was, in my opinion, a defensible decision, even if not the preferred path for me. The part that really got me was not getting enough in return for either pitcher to make trading them worthwhile. Meanwhile, Chris thought that blowing the team up was the exact right move to make and that the farm system was in much-better shape with the trades. Here is our email exchange:
Brian: You were in favor of the Mets’ moves at the deadline, which in my opinion is a reasonable take. But before we talk about the present and the future, let’s talk about the past. Steve Cohen is in his third season of ownership. In that span, among other moves, he traded for and extended Francisco Lindor, he signed Max Scherzer, signed Justin Verlander and re-signed Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo. Given where we are now in early August, 2023 – would you view the first three seasons of Cohen ownership as a noble failure or a dismal mistake?
Was he in over his head when he said he expected a World Series winner in 3-5 years? If Cohen initially committed to a rebuild with the idea of first contending in 2025, would we be in a better position than we are now with the prospects just acquired from other clubs? Could he have made other moves in the past that would have the club in a better position, both now and in 2025?
Chris: Let’s get this ball rolling!! As for the first three years I’d call this a success, not conditioned by any notion of failure. Let me explain. He bought the team knowing there were plenty of issues, but until you look at every nook and cranny it’s really unknown the extent to which the amount of work is needed. If you play out 77 wins this year, the team is 255-231. It’s looking like his first three seasons will be a positive record. So, I don’t see the outcome of failure at any level. In this time, he’s had to restructure the franchise top to bottom and deal will all the little aspects running a franchise needs. We’ve seen a much better relationship with retired Mets, proper recognition of the greats, and, overall, a better world for the team. Verlander called the organization “A+,” which never was the case under the Wilpon regime.
Yes, Cohen was naive in saying he could be in the World Series in 3-5 years. But let’s analyze his words from the other day: he said it is important to identify high-achieving goals even if you don’t reach them. Set minimal goals, get minimal results. You can tell from his recent words he’s realized out of the gate that was unrealistic.
If his first actions were a tear down, I think Cohen could have gotten away with it. But at the time you have a guy that has a lot of money and a desire to win. Money and winning sure go hand-in-hand but as he has learned and we have seen, that alone does not buy a pennant. I’ve been saying for quite some time the team needed a tear down to get out of the imbalance of, say, having aces in the rotation, but not enough real support elsewhere on the team. It’s hard to say good-bye to great players when sometimes that’s all the team really has. It’s easy to point to serial failures for rebuilds, but if you look at the real commitments like with the Astros or Cubs who bring the right group together, it can be very powerful and get a lot of people in the same cohort. Would we be better now? I think we would have been better sooner.
I see the moves he made clearly in my eyes. He knew that the franchise needed an overhaul. I think he had a vision to build a sustainable winner by slowly building the farm and not getting rid of talent and then supporting the existing goodness with high-dollar, short-duration vets to see if it could all gel. He put his money on the table for that and it didn’t work. Rather than calling that a failure, I think it’s an A for effort and now accepting the reality of the hard work needed to build a serial contender.
Brian: Mets fans experienced a giant upgrade, going from the Wilpons to Cohen. He’s made much-needed improvements to infrastructure, using that as a catch-all phrase for non-player moves. Giant kudos to him for that. But he was doing that regardless of what direction he went with the MLB club. I think we need to separate how we view him for infrastructure improvements and how we view him on roster building.
It seems to me he made at least one error. Either he erred on spending so much money trying to buy a winner in the short-term or he erred on selling off assets at the first sign that everything wasn’t perfect. We have no trouble saying Jeff McNeil is terrible or that Starling Marte is an anchor. Why do we have trouble saying Cohen isn’t perfect? It seems like we’re so eager not to criticize Cohen for any action that he makes that we’re half a step away from giving him a participation trophy for his first three seasons.
Let’s move to the present. And this is likely much more about Billy Eppler and Buck Showalter rather than Cohen. Is there any reason that Ronny Mauricio isn’t in the majors playing every day? Is there a reason we’re watching Tylor Megill disappoint once again rather than seeing if Joey Lucchesi – or shoot, Mike Vasil – can be worthwhile? Is it fair to criticize Showalter’s managerial moves when the games mean nothing and when one-third of the lineup or more is made up of AAAA players?
Chris: I certainly see the fork in the road with the initial overspend versus presently bailing. It’s important to note that I don’t think Cohen is perfect; rather, I feel like I see clearly what he was doing. I personally would have taken the “left turn,” not investing a fortune like he did, but I don’t think it was a simple decision. There were really good pieces in place and instead of letting everyone go, he tried the expensive fill in. I would have been fine with, and preferred, a rebuild. I mean I couldn’t believe he got rid of Andres Giminez for Lindor. Shortstop was not an issue. As for Cohen, I guess I see someone who is trying for real, and from an ownership perspective that’s a big win for the franchise (on field and off field). The only other thing I see in this fork-in-the-road construct is that he has sufficient funds to pave a third option, which he did. Money has its privileges.
I read that Mauricio has some attitude issues that have led to diminishing performance. Basically, as I understand the writing, he’s not happy with all the promotions around him, and now is unhappy. Mauricio’s K rate is up to something like 25%. If this is true, then until the approach and attitude improve, my bet he’s not going anywhere. I don’t know about Megill v Lucchesi, but Megill made it clear tonight that he’s a DFA candidate. As for Showalter’s decision making, to my eyes, it’s been a bit confounding this year. I’m not in the clubhouse of course, so there’s so much we don’t ever see in what is happening with player decisions. I’ll say this, I follow Tottenham Hotspur in Premier League Football and the team is crazily much like the Mets in many upsetting ways for me, but recently there was an interview with a recent ex-player who came up as a real big deal and then just cratered, fans booed him endlessly, and he got traded away, and now has really fallen off the face of the Earth. It turns out he had an abused childhood, battled massive depression and other issues his whole young life, and could not cope with everything in life let alone elite sports. We rapidly forget all these players are people with real-people issues we rightly never know about. I’d guess 101 win-Buck is really no different than 77-win Buck with regard to who is going out there.
Brian: I read that the Mets might be waiting to promote Mauricio to make sure he retains his rookie status for next year. A new provision in the CBA calls for rewarding the team with the Rookie of the Year Award winner with an extra draft pick and the second and third-place finishers with bonus money for international signees.
Let’s finish this up with a discussion on the prospects the Mets did get. You don’t pretend to be a minor league expert. Still, you must have some expectations for the prospects the Mets got from trading Scherzer and Verlander. We all like prospects. But what we’re seeing now with Brett Baty drives home the point that prospects are miles from a sure thing. My opinion is that the Mets got good prospects in these trades. However, they don’t seem like great prospects to me. My comparison was to former Mets Luis Castillo (Luisangel Acuna), Lucas Duda (Ryan Clifford) and Jay Payton (Drew Gilbert.) Those three ex-Mets played a combined 37 years in the majors. We should be thrilled if the three new prospects did the same.
To be sure, those comps are far from perfect. But there are at least some reasons why they make sense. It’s not like comparing Grant Hartwig to Shohei Ohtani. Do you have three players who you think would be reasonable comps for the main players the Mets received in deadline deals? Or if that’s beyond where you feel comfortable, what you would expect from these guys at their peak, something like “five years of at least 4-WAR production.”
Chris: I am definitely out of my depth here. However, I have been doing a fair bit of reading about who we ended up with. Just looking at the revised Mets pipeline, the trades have resulted in a serious shake up in the top 10 and then some. If the incoming talent is not great, then it really says the state of the system was bereft. I’ll make clear, I do not believe that there is a gold medal for having the best pipeline – that itself cannot be an end goal; that does not look the plan to me.
Prospects are always just that, a bet on the future. It’s so hard to properly evaluate a lot of kids who aren’t in the “Alvarez class” from the start. You are right, an impact MLB outcome is by no means what we should expect. In your assessment, have already attached a final outcome for each prospect. What would you say if Acuna turned out to be more like Edgardo Alfonzo, or Clifford like Joc Pederson, and Gilbert like Tommie Agee? I think an exercise like this should look at a floor and ceiling comp as opposed to just a single person. In the end I get the sense from critics that the quality of players in return isn’t good enough for the get. I don’t see the get as all that much and so happy to move on from Scherzer and Verlander, the former who is rapidly turning into Robinson Cano. I don’t see the health or the quality in those contracts after this year. So, I guess circling back up to your initial question about rebuilding or investing in aging past stars, I would not have said that was the best path. As they say, hindsight is 20/20.
Brian: Given that none of them are even in Triple-A, the floor is that they don’t make the majors. It’s not something we really want to think about but it’s the reality. Alfonzo, who had little speed, isn’t really a good comp for Acuna. Pederson when he was younger had much more defensive value. Perhaps 2020s Pederson, who’s played just 26 games in CF, works. He has a 113 OPS+ with a .210 ISO in that span. Agee might be a reasonable comp for Gilbert, although with the same defensive caveat as the Pederson/Clifford one. Agee won two Gold Glove Awards as a CF and Gilbert might not be able to play the position for more than a couple of years in the majors. Anyway, Agee had five really good years in the majors and played his last season at age 30.
Finally, Lucchesi is on the IL and hasn’t pitched since July 20, which is why we’re seeing Megill back in the majors.
That cartoon is the best!
When Cohen was sacrificing his personal funds to build the roster, I don’t remember reading anyone saying he should not do it. In fact, he pissed off MLB by raising the bar and many people wanted to see that.
Fast forwarding to today, his mistake of trading PCA for Baez is exactly the opposite of what he just did last week. He misread the tea leaves two years ago, but he didn’t this time. This team was flawed. A good starting rotation that doesn’t have a good bullpen behind it and a manager that loves to pull starters quickly. Too, half the lineup was in the doldrums and there wasn’t a sign that they were waking up any time soon.
His statement that next year’s team will be formidable is a welcome soundbite, but I still maintain the Verlander trade did not need to happen. If you want to be formidable next year, then why trade him? But, since the free agency class is loaded with starting pitching, let’s see what happens.
I’m sure that every Mets fan appreciates the Cohens’ efforts and to condemn him is grandstanding. He did his best and spent his butt off, when 97% of the other teams would not do that. From me to Steve and Alex Cohen, thank you.
I also love the cartoon!
What happened to our five minute edit opportunity?
$ doesn’t buy happiness nor a WS appearance. Maybe prospects,patience, and a few smart or lucky moves might.
Gotta love how much a comp to Luis Castillo hurts even if he had years of being a very productive major leaguer.
Dave’s Comps that will only upset more Met fans:
Luisangel Acuna – Roberto Alomar
Drew Gilbert – Moises Alou/Jason Bay
Ryan Clifford – Adam Dunn
If these guys turn into the pre-Mets versions of Alomar and Bay, I’d sign up for that right now.
As would I
I’d take Adam Dunn too.
FYI, the article about an unhappy Mauricio was by Mike Puma in the NYP. Easy to google and find.
Always great to read the chatter between the Mayor and the CEO. Thanks gentlemen. It’s an interesting world where the Mayor is the voice of calm and optimism…I think Alanis Morrissette sang a song about this once, maybe she was thinking about the Mets.
I am 100% grateful that Steve Cohen replaced the Wilpons. As noted above, he has done many things to improve the Mets. I also appreciate his willingness to spend and lose money, even if he is incredibly wealthy. And, maybe most importantly, his publicly-stated goal to create and sustain an organization that competes for titles regularly.
However…the reality is that 2023 have been a colossal failure. 2024 is a major question. And, as noted, while stocking prospects increases the likelihood of success, it is no guarantee. The notion that Cohen has checked every nook and cranny and come to the conclusion that resulted in the deals last week is not realistic. Had the Mets won say 5 more games, my money says Eppler would have been buying…despite the Mets being miles from the Braves, Dodgers, Astros et. al. There is no evidence to the contrary…it may be more likely that they pulled off another Crow-Armstrong debacle, or Ruf debacle. It strikes me that it is more likely that he got pissed between his media meeting a few weeks earlier and the days before the deadline, at least based on his statements.
This is why the 2024 plan is very relevant right now. For all those folks giving Cohen kudos right now, what is his plan for 2024? He says next year’s team will be formidable, so I say, okay, how, specifically? It’s a simple exercise. His spending overpays on the pitching elders, Marte, and Lindor, have positioned him over the tax threshold by $6 million. That is before paying Alonso, Raley, Smith, Guilorme, and Peterson. So, add $30 million and that gets them back to the bottom 5 squad they are currently fielding. And then there is the pitching rotation with 2 legit major leaguers Senga and Quintana. Oh, let’s not forget the bullpen…and lastly, that juggernaut offense, with black holes in at least 3 spots. Let’s name names and costs to fill the holes. And, for dealing guy’s like Marte and McNeil, let’s name what they get back, how much of those contracts Uncle Steve pays, who replaces those two spots, how they are acquired, and what they add to payroll.
Now, once that is complete, explain me the bridge to 2025 and then 2026, when the “plan” is to be “back” and competing for championships. The answers to these questions would be much more representative of a plan and a vision. More realistically, they could spend $270 million in payroll (before taxes) on a team that Vegas would peg as a 65 win team. Or gut it further by dealing Alonso and/or Diaz. I don’t count myself as pessimistic, but the “plan” doesn’t appear clear to me. The As and Royals stockpile prospects too.
These are all good questions/points.
There’s an incentive to stay below $277 million in that they wouldn’t have the draft pick drop. If you’re not aggressively going for the playoffs, there’s no reason to go past $277. The flip side of that – how much do you have to pay to make the playoffs a reasonable option? At the very least, you need two good SP, three serviceable RP and one hitter. Maybe more than that. With arb raises they’re what – around $260 million or so?
Do you go to a $300 million payroll and risk not making the playoffs? That wasn’t acceptable in 2023 – will it be acceptable to Cohen for 2024? Fans just think Cohen’s going to spend a lot this offseason. It just seems far from a sure thing to me.
Great comment T.J.
Alanis and the Mets – has Jagged Little Pill written all over it. (What a fab album).
I think you raise all the right questions and the things we really need answers to.
I think I’d challenge you on a 5 game difference. A month ago, Cohen made pretty clear that things really had to change. I think if they went on a 20-5 run with a 8 game winning streak or something, like the cubs, then yes. My personal sense was he needed to see a team at least at .500 to be convinced things were worth more investment.
Im going to reach into the colossal failure angle and try to find a silver lining. The fact is as the team played as bad as it has really has exposed the rot is maybe deeper than imagined. That may force some other decisions for the off season that may not comport with all the words about what 24 or even 25 will be. My personal feeling is he has conditioned his comments enough for latitude to take different levels of action from patchwork FAs to a bigger rebuild. So Im trying to place his words in context at the time he said them (facts at that point) relative to what we see as more data roll in. Im an advocate that he needs to settle on a mantra about team progress that is less than what we all want but permissive of evolving reality — I personally would say something like: “As a fan and owner of this team, I am deeply committed to seeing it succeed on a continual basis. I will be endeavoring to build sustainable success as my principal goal at a speed commensurate with all the available tools at our disposal. Building a mixed farm, FA, and trade-based team needs the proper set of circumstances to happen. As the owner and with the FO, we are working ceaselessly to make this happen.”
You want real specific plans. And I think what you say is exactly spot on. That said, he is never — at this point in time — reveal that publicly. Truthfully, I dont believe it makes sense for the owner to broadcast the exact plan to the opponents. Also remember with a potential new PBO coming in who will have a very heavy say in those decisions it’s simply premature. I will also add, the entirety of the organization needs to see how the trades play til the end of the season and who on the big league club is going to stay on (or be signed in the case of Pete).
My personal feeling is that the ‘24 plan is only roughly shaped and that ‘25-‘26 is more of the ambitious thinking I wish he would stop talking about. One there is a new person at the helm of the team, a lot more will become clear. In the mean time, I really dont expect him to come out and declare an exact path, much to everyone’s frustration.
Agree 100% to look for a silver lining. Agree that there is no way that they’ll provide the level of detail of the plan, it’s more of a rhetorical question/ask…but it is a necessary component to have confidence as a fan.
With respect to the “rot”, as followers of the Wilpon Mets we are familiar with it. However, while Cohen has done some tremendous things, a large portion of the 2023 rot has his fingerprints on it. Marte, McNeil, Cahna, Narvaez, the excessive money to Scherzer and Verlander, the Lindor overpay, dealing PCA for a rental as a fringe playoff team, the Ruf trade, dropping out of the first round of the draft…these are all contributing factors to 2023 as well as 2024-25. Let’s hope this winter doesn’t result in more rot.
I’m all for determining pros and cons for players, managers, GMs and owners. Those things did indeed happen while Cohen was owner. But I’m not sure how many are fair to lay at his feet, rather than his GMs. Anything to do with Lindor, Scherzer and Verlander belongs to Cohen. Not sure it’s fair to throw the Ruf trade at him.
He approved the massive spending. He approved the sell-off. He has to own those, too.
Ive been thinking about writing a story tracking the OPS+ or bWAR for preceding years and add this year to the end.
As a quick list of data on OPS+ ’18-’23
Marte: 114, 119, 107, 132, 133, 75 (injury riddled 23)
McNeil: 138, 143, 130, 87, 141, 86 (maybe he has these crazy off years)
Canha: 114, 146, 124, 111, 123, 95 (long fall from previous)
Narvaez: injured and lost job to Alvarez
Vogelbach: 95, 111, 98, 99, 125, 88
I just dont see that the names how are really at the heart of the issue this year have a lead in thinking this would happen. The one exception is Vogelbach who had a good run in 22 but otherwise is essentially a replacement level (average) hitter. Even then hes regressed below his running average OPS+.
Sadly, this looks like a circling of the dark side that just infected nearly the whole team at the same time. Cohen and Eppler need to take responsibility, but this looks a bit out of the blue. The real grab was Pham, who had been doing awesome, then fell off the earth, and then turned around to the positive.
Pham: 127, 120, 75, 103, 88, 118
Chris – someone hacked your account!
Alonso – lifetime 140 OPS+ – This year 129
Nimmo – lifetime 130 OPS+ – This year 115
Lindor’s recent surge has him above his lifetime mark but still below last year’s output.
I think it was reasonable to expect dropoffs for Marte and McNeil – but not to the degrees that they fell. Can probably put Canha in this department, too. But Alonso, Lindor and Nimmo should all have been around last year’s mark or better. I agree completely that this “looks a bit out of the blue.” Which is why I found the white flag deals on 2024 to be so deflating. Well, that and the fact I was underwhelmed on the return.
As for Pham, that worked better than we had any right to expect and the Mets sold high on him. Since the end of his six-week hot streak (28 games, 109 PA, .378/.431/.694, .456 BABIP) – Pham has done the following: 77 PA, .154/.286/.215 and before the hot streak, it was 98 PA, .200/.286/.341
Right now, we have 175 PA of awful production and 109 PA where he played out of his mind. Those 175 awful PA, he was much worse than either Marte or Baty.
Acuna – Juan Pierre
Gilbert – Jayson Werth
Clifford – Steve Balboni
I love Cohen. He is passionate and wants to win, just like George. He swung for the fences and spent a ton of money. So what, he struck out this at bat. We still had a wild 101 win season. He will spend money again. His best two deals are the ones he did not make, Correa and deGrom.
I love how he is always wearing his Mets. We will hoist the flag again, just have to reset after a bad year. I think we did the right thing by making the trades we did when we did. Maybe a couple of the new acquisitions get traded for a starter.
I bet that we sign two quality starters this coming offseason.
I just hate to see the drecks who are filling the roster now like Mendick, Stewart, Almonte and yes Megill. This also proves that we really don’t have much depth in the minors.
I’d rather see some youngster get called up and get some reps, especially the pitchers.
As for Mauricio, maybe they are holding him out because they plan to trade him this offseason and it would be bad for that if he came up and sucked. That’s my prediction.
It’s easy to criticize Cohen in hindsight, but signing Scherzer and JV were calculated risks given their ages. As it turned out, those risks failed, especially with Scherzer, but they were better than Megill and Peterson as 40% of the rotation.
I don’t think anyone predicted the dramatic fall-off of McNeil and Marte. We pretty much knew 3B was light with Escobar/Baty and Vogelbach’s 2023 was not a surprise.
People have criticized Lindor as a disappointment this year, but he has the highest OPS of any NL SS and an overall NL top 5 WAR per ESPN (doesn’t say if bWAR or fWAR). He’s an excellent signing by Cohen.
Signing a power bat or two next year (Joc Pedersen? Rhys Hoskins?) as a mid-tier free agent, maybe 2 SPs, a normal year for McNeil, and some luck with the rookies could make a competitive 2024.
$17 billion buys a lot of second chances.
I don’t criticize Cohen for signing Scherzer and Verlander. I criticize him for trading them for what he did.
It was a really good conversation guys comments we’re very thoughtful also.
I am glad that the Mets realized that they weren’t going to make the playoffs and was proactive for the solution.
Scherzer could have opted out and the Mets would have nothing to show.
Once Scherzer gone then the Verlander trade made some sense. At that point they were going to commit to accelerating the build of their minor league system. Escobar, Robertson, Pham and Canha yielded other young prospects. They got something instead of nothing.
The plan was the money to get veterans players on short-term contracts that could win the World Series. Meanwhile they had a bridge and time for the development of the minor league system . In 2022 the plan was good and they had on 101 winning game season. They continued the plan in 2023 and Cohen spent more money. Cohen held up his end of the bargain but the players didn’t. Cohen pivoted.
This off season, I’m confident that they will sign younger free agents so that they can compete in 2024.
Scherzer was going to be here if the Mets were going to target 2024 as a playoff year. When he heard that they weren’t – everything changed. He turned his option to a guaranteed year once he joined a club that was serious about competing in 2024.