Where were you when The Great Fire Sale of 2023 happened? If you don’t remember exactly where you were, it is still reasonable to believe the way that you felt when it happened. Any mixture of anger, frustration, and sadness is applicable to the situation. The immediate speculation was that with the significant prospect haul the team received, they would be punting on 2024 to try to compete in 2025. This sentiment was echoed by Max Scherzer, who told reporters “Billy and Steve had to do a different vision now. The math changed on them. They wanted to be able to flip guys for prospects and so they were willing to — I assume they still are looking to be able to trade guys off the roster to try to get more players that are going to be with them in those seasons in 2025 and 2026 that can help them win then.”
While Scherzer is correct in saying that the Mets acquired players that will help them win in 2025 and 2026 in Luisangel Acuna and Drew Gilbert, it was the pitching that severely doomed the team this season. Scherzer was part of the issue, pitching to a 4.01 ERA and rarely making it to the sixth inning in his starts. Starting pitching has been the biggest disappointment for the team, as the unit has accounted for a cumulative WAR of 5.6 this season, better only than the Yankees, Nationals, Royals, Rockies, and Rays. If the Mets want to be anywhere near competitive or even watchable, they’ll have to make additions to that unit. If the Mets are punting next season as initial reports made it seem however, the starting pitching free agency pool in the offseason leading up to the 2025 season is nothing to write home about.
In that offseason, the two primary names are Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber. The rest of the field is highlighted by a lot of starters who will be 34 years old or older, and that is something the Mets are looking to avoid given their issues this season. So where does that leave them? Well, this upcoming offseason happens to have more age-friendly starters. Of course, the market will be dictated by what happens with the $750 million elephant in the room known as Shohei Ohtani, but even after Ohtani, there are guys to be had who would be a great fit to add to the team.
In a dream scenario, the Mets of course sign Ohtani and receive both the elite hitter and elite pitcher. Nearly every other team will be in on Ohtani though, so it is important to not put too many eggs in one basket. There is a strong belief that the Mets may be in on another Japenese starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto just turned 25, and has an already stellar track record as a professional. His age, dazzling career 1.78 ERA, and Kodai Senga’s reported willingness to recruit him certainly make him an alluring free agent target for the Mets this offseason.
While Yamamoto would certainly be a splash, there is another interesting bucket of pitchers to look at as well. Both Julio Urias, Lucas Giolito, and Aaron Nola could be interesting to look at this offseason. All three of those starters entered this season under 32 years old and were primed to earn a big contract. In their walk year however, all three of them have not lived up to their standards. Out of all three of those starters, Urias could be an interesting piece to look at. Up until this season, Urias has been spectacular. Entering free agency at 27 years old, there could be the potential he signs a short-term “prove it” deal, enabling him to sign a long-term deal afterwards. Giolito started this season off efficiently, but has since struggled mightily with the Angels. Out of the bunch, he is probably the one to be the most cautious about, but would still be a solid add to the back of the rotation. The most curious case comes with Nola, who nearly won the CY Young award last season, but has been the outlier in an otherwise strong Philadelphia rotation. Would the Mets be willing to take on the risk of Nola in hopes that he returns to his 2022 form? Given the history of Urias, Giolito, and Nola, there is reason to believe that the addition of one of them should go a long way in helping the rotation be competitive next season.
Despite the fact that the Mets were sellers at the deadline this year, and will undoubtedly be hard to watch for the rest of this season due to their lack of pitching, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic that this upcoming offseason will lead them to be competitive next season. To get quality pitching for the upcoming seasons though, they will be wise not to wait until after the 2024 season. As oxymoronic as it might sound, to competitive in 2025, the Mets should spend on starting pitching this offseason.
Scherzer got off to a rough start this year, adjusting to the pitch clock, the silly suspension and the neck injury. But in his last 14 starts before the trade, he had a 3.60 ERA and it was trending downwards. He’s made three more starts since the trade and in his last 17 games, he has a 3.26 ERA and has completed at least 6 IP 13 times, including 10 of his last 11 games.
Certainly not 43.3M$ of production out of either Scherzer or Verlander. I was excited at their acquisition but also fine with their departure.
More than anything I like that the team on the field is going to get younger. I hope that FA pitching is also going to get younger. 30-31 is turning into a real threshold year unless you are an MVP. After 35, it’s just DH.
Totally agree with you. The time to load up on starters is this offseason. There are some decent starters out there who won’t break the bank or be anywhere near $ 43 million a year. I would like Yamamoto and Urias, both young. Some other choices include Michael Lorenzen, Jordan Mongomery and Blake Snell. I wouldn’t mind a couple of that group either. I don’t like Giolito.
Speaking about other value signings, I would look at Gio Urshela and Lourdes Gurriel.
Even though the offense is struggling their primary need is starting pitching. There are no prospects ready for 2024. Peterson and Megill didn’t cut it this year. There are many avaible free agents pitchers. Sign three good ones. The younger the better, and the Mets won’t have too worry about their rotation for a few years.
Oh fellow Met fans, how we yearn for decent starting pitching. So much so that we are all salivating at just loading up on overpaid so so free agents. I’ll go with a solid no thanks on that one.
Since I am expecting a call, my advice to Uncle Steve would be that if you spend, spend on quality, or spend on low cost prove it guys. I think the aligns with the Chris F comment above. Ohtani – no shot, but hey, make the call Urias isn’t going to needing a short-term prove it deal…worth a shot but likely staying in Southern California. Nola – no thanks. Giolito – no way…Lucchesi has a better career FIP. Snell – eh, inconsistent, nah, will be 31 and cost a fortune, this is the type to avoid. Stroman reunion, anyone? Another negatory. Seth Lugo going into age 34 season? Maybe. Sonny Gray? Another Maybe.
My expectation is a big push for the Japanese kid, an obligatory phone call to Ohtani and Urias that doesn’t go anywhere, a Lugo/Gray signing for 2 years that doesn’t break the bank, and perhaps a trade that can include prospect(s) and return an AAA starter that could get to Flushing (hard to get). This would be more in line with Cohen’s public comments on 2024 as of now.
Yamamoto is the target for next season. He is young, proven and will only cost money – not player talent. Senga is only the most recent example of pitchers from Japan who demonstrate that the pitching skills transfer to the MLB. BTW, wouldn’t it be great if Senga’s terrific season netted the Mets a top draft pick in 2024?
No way around spending money on free agent pitchers but hopefully not getting really old ones with crazy salaries. We were clearly built to win this year before Diaz went down and Scherzer pitched like someone else. Verlander came around and was dominant but the pen sucked anyway you slice it and that was perhaps Eppler’s biggest off-season failure. In 2024 which Marte and McNeil will we see and can Baty right himself to take his spot back at 3B? Thankfully we have an owner with very deep pockets. We are too big a market to do an Astros rebuild with 2-3 100 loss seasons.