As the Mets sit with a 69-80 record, when expectations were for the team to win 90+ games this year, it’s easy to imagine that many more things went wrong than what went right with the club this season. It’s too painful – and too lengthy – to list all of the ways the wheels fell off here in 2023. So, let’s just hit the lowlights. There were injuries to the starting rotation, a dreadful bullpen construction, a bunch of veteran hitters falling short of what was expected of them and a couple of rookies who failed to prove they belonged on the team.
All of that leaves us looking for sliver linings. And something more substantial than Phil Bickford has had six scoreless appearances in his last seven outings. Fortunately, the Mets have two things to potentially hang their hat on, one a guy coming on out of seemingly nowhere and the other a guy that was undervalued by far too many people, both inside and outside of the organization. The former is DJ Stewart and the latter is Ronny Mauricio.
By now the Stewart story is well-known among Mets fans. A former first-round pick of the Orioles when Buck Showalter was their manager, Stewart failed to impress in parts of five years in Baltimore before joining the Mets as a free agent prior to this season. Then, when given a chance here with the Mets out of contention, Stewart has done a great job at the plate, with a 150 OPS+ in 152 PA.
Clearly, Stewart wasn’t this good with the Orioles. But the thing is, it’s not like he was awful, either. Stewart had 622 PA in his tenure in Baltimore, or essentially a full season’s worth of playing time. And in that span, he hit 26 HR and had a 97 OPS+. Stewart put up these numbers with a .254 BABIP. So, we have an essentially league-average hitter despite one running a 40-something point deficit with balls in play. And one with power, too.
This year he has a .308 BABIP and the aforementioned 150 OPS+. Is this all due to better luck on balls in play? Well, not exactly. After a .188 ISO in his time with the Orioles, Stewart has a .311 ISO here in 2023. It’s possible that’s nothing more than an unsustainable hot streak. But he started from a pretty good place and then the Mets organization helped him make an adjustment. This is from Will Sammon in The Athletic:
One day while working in the batting cage with Triple-A Syracuse hitting coach Collin Hetzler, Stewart stumbled into using a toe tap at the plate that has helped him unlock more power. The idea stemmed from Hetzler — who in 2022 the Mets named as their minor-league staff member of the year — wanting Stewart to get the ball more in the air. Stewart’s bat path had become steep; a lot of his most hard-hit balls were sliced with excessive spin. Data in April and May confirmed the high ground-ball rate. Thus, Hetzler and Stewart wanted the burly outfielder to get behind the ball longer. Instead of always thinking about left-center field, the left-handed batter changed his target to right-center. It all stemmed from a posture and point-of-contact adjustment. Hetzler suggested taking a step back with his front foot, but Stewart found the toe tap and ran with it. Ever since, his results have improved.
It’s always nice when we have an explanation for the leap in performance. Stewart is having success this year because of a big increase in BABIP and a mechanical adjustment that helped unlock even more power. If only we could wrap it up that tidy.
By now, you should be familiar with the idea of a six-week hot streak. When this concept was first introduced here back in 2018, here was the description: “In rough terms, these unusual streaks comprise six weeks or 30 games or 120 PA. Now, maybe it’s 37 games or maybe it’s 98 PA. But this is the general ballpark.”
Starting on 8/1, when he went 2-3 with a double and a walk, and ending on 9/12, when he went 3-5 with a double, Stewart played in 31 games and in 106 PA he posted a .298/.365/.692 line, with a .353 BABIP. Before August, Stewart nearly put up an identical mark to his time with the Orioles, with a .200/.320/.400 line. And in his last five games, Stewart has just a .452 OPS.
Stewart’s time in Baltimore indicates a perfectly reasonable bench player. His time in New York offers hope of not only a starting-caliber player but one who could be a key cog in the offense. It’s difficult for me to believe he’s that good. But it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that he could perform some kind of quasi-platoon next year with Starling Marte. While not as hopeless against lefties as Daniel Vogelbach, Stewart hits RHP much better, with a .150-point lifetime edge in OPS when he has the platoon advantage.
Which brings us to Mauricio.
Long-touted as one of the Mets’ top prospects, Mauricio had four straight seasons where he was on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect list. Then he went out and hit 26 HR in Double-A at age 21 and somehow fell off BA’s list prior to this season. And the same goes for the lists from MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus, who both dropped Mauricio after featuring him on their list the three previous seasons.
And it wasn’t just outside evaluators who didn’t believe in Mauricio. The Mets failed to call him up earlier in the year despite the fact that he was tearing the cover off the ball in Syracuse the first two months of the season while the MLB club was struggling for offense. And it turns out that was the best thing possible for Mauricio. He couldn’t keep up his blistering pace and fell off for the next six weeks or so. If he had been promoted, the story would be how he couldn’t hit MLB pitching. Instead his drop in performance is just considered the normal ups and down of a season.
The Mets called up Mauricio when rosters expanded in September and immediately inserted him into the lineup at second base. A shortstop through most of his minor league tenure, the Mets finally gave Mauricio some playing time at other positions this year and he didn’t really excel at any of them. He looked fine at 2B. The Mets have also given him a few games at third base, too. Mauricio claims he feels most comfortable at 3B if he isn’t going to play SS. It will be curious to see where he plays the rest of this season. My hope is that they let him play some outfield, too, which seems like his long-term defensive home. We shall see.
But Mauricio’s value is going to come with his bat and he has posted some impressive exit velocities here in his first exposure to MLB pitching. His very first PA ended with a ball with a 117.3 exit velocity, the highest mark posted by a Met this season. With a .400 BABIP, the hits are falling in for Mauricio, allowing him to post a .770 OPS despite having just 3 XBH in 51 PA.
However, the takeaway from his initial MLB experience is that while he likes to swing the bat, he makes enough contact not to be too alarmed. Ideally, Mauricio wouldn’t have a 42.1 O-Swing%. But he makes contact on 60.8% of those swings on pitches outside the zone. Compare that to the mark of fellow rookies Francisco Alvarez (56.5%), Brett Baty (53.7%) and Mark Vientos (52%). It should still be a point of emphasis to cut down on his chase rate moving forward.
It’s a reasonable forecast to have both Stewart and Mauricio on the 2024 Mets Opening Day roster. It’s not outlandish to picture both of them getting 300 or more PA next year. And it’s on the table that both could be in the Opening Day lineup. If that’s the case, it will indeed be a silver lining in this otherwise forgettable year of 2023 in Mets baseball.
To me, something totally unforeseen would keep these two off the opening day roster. Hopefully, Mauricio will be given extensive time in the off season learning to play a corner OF position. But if the Mets think McNeil should be in the OF, and Mauricio at 2B; fine. I just think McNeils’s bat would be more justified at 2B though.
What I don’t want to see is the FO bring in another veteran (like Marte), to compete with the “baby Mets”. I think though, that either Vientos or Baty will be trade bait for bullpen help.
I’m surprise though Brian, that you didn’t include Alvarez as another silver lining for the season.
Alvarez was a consensus Top 10 prospect in all of baseball coming into the season. BA had him at #9, MLB.com had him at #3 and BP had him at #4. Is it really something unexpectedly positive for a guy with that type of hype to come in and put up a 101 OPS+?
Great points about Stewart and Mauricio, Brian!
Another silver lining was Tommy Pham, who had 264 PA with the Mets, and an OPS+ of 125.
Thanks for the kind words!
Pham was definitely an unexpected surprise with how well he played and if we were limiting our focus to 2023, he would definitely rank high. I know I didn’t say so explicitly but my focus here was on who came out of left field to position themselves to be a factor moving forward.
Of course, Pham could still contribute to the Mets in the future if the lottery ticket they got for him pays out. Fingers crossed!
Great story Brian. I couldnt agree more. I ended up getting the games on TV with the Reds broadcast team, which was interesting. Firstly, so much better than the Braves. But one thing caught me the other day was their guys calling Mauricio the “Mets equivalent of Elly de la Cruz,” which took me back a bit. Now they of course were higher on their guy, but then I got thinking, Mauricio almost certainly quite a bit better than de la Cruz. I dont really like him as an infielder because of his height and would much rather see him in LF or possibly RF long term, but he’s gotta be a lock for 24. One thing aboout the delayed promotion, whether it be for playing or contract control reasons, I believe a player earns a promotion not only by crushing the league they’re in, but having a slump and working their way out. Every hitter slumps, and its real growth to wade through and see the other side.
As for Stewart, Im sure glad your article points him out. Its really astonishing what he’s done. I also enjoyed the Athletic article about his stance/timing adjustments. I see him as a def grab for a DH/bench/platoon guy with offesnive and defensive skills that are valuable.
Great read!
And by the way, they are both Phamtastic!!
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Thanks for the kind words!
I’m going to need a judge’s ruling here. Is “Mauricio almost certainly quite a bit better than de la Cruz,” the most optimistic thing you’ve ever said about the Mets? I think it might be. Hope you didn’t jinx him, Mayor.
hahahahahahahahaha.
Stewart could be a starter in leftfield if Marte is healthy. Have McNeil play second and Mauricio third base. Baty and Vientos, with their sub 70 OPS+, should start in the minors in 2024. With injuries and slumps they could get an opportunity again.
Stewart and Mauricio are Silver Linings.
With all of these players, are we going to field the same exact team that we have this year? We did that this year and look where it got us.
We another big bat in the lineup and it should probably come from the DH.
The Stewart story reminds me a little but of Jose Bautista. He was basically a scrub and the turned into a huge power hitter. I hope it continues. Is Stewart signed for next year
I agree with your assessments of Mauricio and Stewart. Yes, the samples are small, and yes, these guys may regress some, but these are clearly 2024 pieces at this stage.
The Mets certainly need pitching, but I would still avoid parting with these two silver lining guys, as well as the other baby Mets, for pitching…barring a no brainer deal. They have depth, and they can afford to wait longer if need be for the Batys and Vientos’. Buy short-term pitching this winter (except for Yamamoto), let the baby baths battle it out for roster spots and ABs, and let’s see what those baby Binghamton arms do at Syracuse.
I would also list Quintana as a silver lining. Yes he is a vet, but so is Carrasco. Despite his missed time, having his services for 2024 at $13 million is very good.
Both Quintana and Senga were brought here to be part of a championship rotation. They did their parts – perhaps better than expected, too – but I can’t put them in the same category as Mauricio and Stewart.
Hmmm. One man’s silver lining is another man’s leftovers.
Nice article. It is likely a consensus from those who are here that we like them both. Stewart is destined for the bench at Citifield but can play in spurts. Doesn’t seem likely that a 29-year-old would blossom into a starter, but he has certainly gotten our attention and there is a place for him here. As for Mauricio, many of us lobbied for him to be brought up a number of months ago when we desperately needed office. In fairness, it is likely that those running the baseball operations of the Mets know more about when to bring up a player than I do and I am OK with that. He still should have come up sooner. It would be hard to imagine that Mauricio is not starting at some position on the 2024 Mets. And he can run – what a great addition to our offense. Quintana might be in this conversation because we got to see what he never got to show us in the first half. I think he could be a solid #2 or #3. In this day and age when 6 innings from your starter is cause for celebration Quintana is the real deal.
Butto might be a silver lining too. He has had some very good starts.
Yeah, he’s certainly performed much better than anyone expected and deserves kudos for that. In his last three starts, he has 17.1 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 19 Ks. Do you feel confident that earns him as big of a role as Mauricio and Stewart in 2024? What’s the pitching equivalent of 300 PA? Do you see Butto appearing in 20-something games and making 15 starts next year?