This is the list of Mets eligible for arbitration, courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. The number in parentheses is the service time the player has accrued, while the following number is MLBTR’s estimate of what the player will make in arbitration.
Daniel Vogelbach (5.138): $2.6MM
Trevor Gott (5.057): $2MM
Elieser Hernandez (5.044): $1.6MM
Drew Smith (5.034): $2.3MM
Pete Alonso (5.000): $22MM
Luis Guillorme (4.159): $1.7MM
Tim Locastro (4.122): $1.6MM
Joey Lucchesi (4.112): $2MM
Sam Coonrod (4.078): $900K
Jeff Brigham (3.142): $1.1MM
John Curtiss (3.137): $1MM
Michael Perez (3.095): $800K
David Peterson (3.089): $2MM
Danny Mendick (3.058): $1.1MM
Rafael Ortega (3.035): $1.4MM
DJ Stewart (2.168): $1.5MM
It’s impossible to make a claim on which players the club should offer arbitration to without knowing the parameters of the club’s budget and post-season aspirations. A player might make sense under one set of circumstances and not make sense under another. If somehow the Mets’ goal this season is a payroll under the threshold where the draft-pick penalty kicks in – unlikely, but not out of the question – many of these players will be kicked to the curb.
Because of that unknown, what follows is my opinion of the player’s worth compared to the MLBTR estimate, in a payroll-neutral environment. What type of role would the player have? What would be the likely production of the player in 2024? How easy would it be to replicate the player’s production at a cheaper rate? These are some of the things to consider in this hypothetical world. On to the players.
Vogelbach – In a perfect world, the Mets sign a full-time DH and no longer worry about crafting a platoon. And this is more about the club’s inability to find a suitable RHB than anything Vogelbach has done or failed to do. In a season where he had around 100-125 fewer PA than you would expect, and where he had an extended stretch where he failed to perform, Vogelbach had a Dollar Value production of $1.2 million. His $2.6 million estimate is too rich. However, in a case where if the club is unsuccessful finding a full-time DH, they should be open to bringing him back in the $1.75 million range.
Gott – By ERA, Gott was worse than a league-average reliever in his time with the Mets. But by FIP, he was the opposite, with a 3.43 mark. Can he post that type of ERA in a full season? In his final 27 games with the Mets, Gott had a 2.96 ERA, a 1.274 WHIP and he limited batters to a .630 OPS with a .309 BABIP. Those are pretty solid numbers for a guy who would not be counted on to be one of your top three relievers. A hypothetical tender, for me.
Hernandez – It’s not a lot of money but it’s also a guy who missed an entire season and who has a lifetime 5.04 ERA in 287.2 IP in the majors. Can you get a depth starter for that type of money? Maybe not. But with Jose Butto, Joey Lucchesi, Tylor Megill and David Peterson, along with Mike Vasil and all of the guys who ended the year in Double-A – how many depth starters do you need? Hernandez is a serious non-tender candidate in my mind.
Smith – After out-performing his FIP in partial seasons in both 2021 and 2022, Smith turned in his most innings yet in 2023. He once again exceeded his FIP but this time it was by a much-closer margin than the previous two years. Push comes to shove, my clear preference would be to keep Gott and move on from Smith. And it doesn’t help that Smith is estimated to make a few dollars more. If David Stearns wants to continue the option-reliever strategy than maybe he’s a keep. He just shouldn’t be counted on as a good reliever over an entire season.
Alonso – A very easy yes.
Guillorme – He’s a good guy to have on the team for his defensive versatility. But usually being a LHB helps you in regards to making a team but with the Mets’ struggles against LHP, it would be nice to have a guy to slot in against lefties a couple of times a month. Pre-arb Jonathan Arauz can fill the role for less than half of what it would cost to retain Guillorme. My fear in the past is that the club has been imagining Ronny Mauricio to fill Guillorme’s super-sub role. Either way, it’s time to thank Guillorme for his contributions and move on without him.
Locastro – Because of the organization’s failure to produce an outfielder to fill a reserve role – the past five years they’ve either made a free agent signing or a trade for a fourth Ofer – my inclination would be to offer a contract here. Locastro can play all three outfield spots, is a good pinch-running option and has a lifetime OPS 38-points higher against lefties.
Lucchesi – In my opinion, Lucchesi should be given a shot to be in the Opening Day rotation. Almost as much of a no-brainer to tender him as it is Alonso.
Coonrod – One of the things that amused me in the awful ’23 season were the people who were claiming that the loss of Coonrod had a big negative effect on the bullpen early in the year. Feel free to imagine a bunch of LOL’s here. Anyway, he throws really hard and doesn’t really have anything else going for him. My preference would be to bank on a recovery from Bryce Montes de Oca than to pin any hopes on Coonrod being healthy and good. An easy pass.
Brigham – He doesn’t throw as hard as Coonrod but essentially he’s in the same boat. My guess is he’s a better bet than Coonrod to be productive in the majors but it’s fine with me if he shows out with another club.
Curtiss – The hype far exceeded the results. It wouldn’t be a giant mistake if the Mets re-upped with him but that wouldn’t be my plan.
Perez – The money on this makes this an easy yes. The only problem is that the Mets already have three catchers ahead of him on the depth chart. Still, with just over three years of service time to his name, it makes sense to me to keep Perez in the organization for future years, as both Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido’s contracts expire after 2024.
Peterson – An easy yes.
Mendick – He wasn’t really impressive in his brief stints in the majors last year. He’s likely a better hitter than Arauz but would the bat make up for the glove, especially if they needed to fill in at SS and had Mauricio playing elsewhere on the diamond? At their respective costs, it’s Arauz>Mendick>Guillorme for me.
Ortega – He seems like a solid 4/5 outfielder to me. It’s just that this team would benefit from a righty bat as a reserve outfielder, making Locastro the better play to me.
Stewart – Everyone remembers the hot streak Stewart was on near the end of the year, the one where he provided a strong power bat. There were all of the stories about how the former first-round pick was finally putting things together at age 29. And then he ended the year on a 3-34 skid. The three hits were all singles and he struck out 15 times in this stretch. That put serious doubts in my mind about his usefulness going forward. How confident are you in Starling Marte’s ability to bounce back? It’s one thing if you view Stewart as a power bat off the bench. It’s another if you see him platooning with Marte. FanGraphs says he still has an option left. That tips the scale towards offering him arbitration, knowing if they sign a free agent OF, they can send Stewart to the minors.
Agree on most. Losing Guillorme would hurt the most, would probably try to trade him first. I’d take Mendick over Arauz, as the former can at least stand in the outfield. I’m done with Vogelbach, however. If they want a one-dimensional DH, they might as well go after J.D. Martinez.
None of this really matters unless they get their pitching figured out. Eppler has left Stearns with a giant mess to clean up. They have like 10 spots to fill right now. Some are easier, like bringing back Raley, but most of the others are a bit more complicated and involve players not in the organization right now.
Good afternoon Brian. I was comparing the information from your Oct.15 article re: roster and luxury tax threshold (277m$) with this latest look of pre-arb players. From the former, the Mets are at 264.52 million and very little wiggle room to add players for 2024. You postulated that if the Mets traded Alonso (only if that team also took on Narvaez)*, would the Mets have money to pick up players and pitchers and stay under the draft pick penalty. With this article, Alonso would stay put in NY (and so would Narvaez).
From this article, I would let Vogelbach, Gott, Hernandez, Smith, Guillorme, Coonrad, Brigham, Curtiss, Mendick, and Ortega walk. It’s just 15.7m$, but now the payroll would be down to about 249m$. Leaving what? About 28m$ to fill in the roster and get SP help? Doable, but tough!
Again, thanks for your thinking man’s look at our beloved Mets.
*If the Mets were to trade Alonso for minor leagers, I would insist that Marte and his 19.5m$ would have to be included, not Narvaez.
FWIW. I had considered making Marte the handcuff for Alonso in that article but decided against it because essentially the only team in a position to do that would be the 2023 Mets. That makes the cost for Alonso be around $42 million because after what Marte turned in last year, it’s hard to count on him for, well, anything.
Requiring Narvaez as the handcuff is still an issue but the salary is more-reasonable and most all teams could use a catcher.
As far as using the payroll information from the other article, I don’t recall Coonrod, Curtiss, Mendick or Ortega being used for either scenario, so you wouldn’t be able to count on any savings from non-tendering those players.
Just a quick follow up comment from a just recent report about the Mets waiving six players from their 40 man roster, including two from your list…Ortega and Mendick.
Thanks for the heads up. Here’s the complete list — LHP Anthony Kay, RHP Vinny Nittoli, C Michael Perez, OF Rafael Ortega, INF Jonathan Arauz and INF Danny Mendick were all waived from the 40-man roster. It’s hard to say that any of these are a surprise and cutting ties with both Arauz and Mendick certainly bodes well for Guillorme being retained.
The difference between all these players is that Guillorme can give you a quality at bat every single time. He can battle a pitcher and give himself a better chance than the other glove guys. We all know Guillorme is a defensive guy, but forget that off the bench, he has a chance. Much more than the others he is compared to.
Gus, Did you just say Guillorme gives a quality AB every time? It’s time to move on from Luis.
Luis G is definitely a favorite of mine, so I’d hate to see him go, but he is clearly a bubble guy. Agree on the no brainers. Agree on Locastro as OF 5. Could live with Stewart gamble. I’d probably keep Smith and Gott as low cost options with options. Those two as non-leverage inning eaters in the pen wouldn’t be the worst, so long as they’ve got legit 7th and 8th inning arms if the opt to spend a few bucks.
Alonso, Lucchesi, and Peterson are no brainers.
Gott and Smith are MLB Tier2 relievers .Stearns has to upgrade the bullpen with two relievers better than Gott and Smith. Smith has an option but Gott doesn’t. Both of them should be tendered. If the choice is a either/or then Smith because of the option.
Hernandez and Curtiss doesn’t have an option therefore they are a non-tender.
Coonrod and Brigham have options and inexpensive therefore tendered them.
Stewart has an option and has a spot on the roster as a 5th outfielder and bench power.
Stearns should upgrade the starting outfield by trade or free agency. If that happens then there is no need for Locastro and with that circumstance he should be non-tender.
Vogelbach and Guillorme don’t have options. Guillorme would be the third option for second and third base and shortstop. Therefore non-tender him.
The DH position should not be a designated player. If you have depth on your bench then you should rotate the DH to keep your bench fresh and also rest your starting players. For that reason, Vogelbach, would be more limited with his playing time. Therefore they should non-tender him.
The dollars are on target, but find it hard to believe that Vogelbach would get a million dollar raise – I believe he was at $1.5 million in 2023. The dollars won’t be coming from the Mets. The reality about this list of players is that we should move on from most of them. Very few distinguished themselves while up with the big club and perhaps some just need more time down on the farm. Even some of the group that we waived will likely return to Syracuse but not take up a spot on the 40 player roster. Fortunately, with the exception of what Pete will cost, the rest are chump change, and most of the pitchers who will be retained are a bargain.
Great article Brian. As always thoroughly data driven and educational.
I don’t track the stats nearly as closely and there were a few surprises, including the late season performances of Gott and Stewart. I pretty much agree with all of your opinions except for some pretty minor ones. Very happy to see you put Guillorme on the wire as I think it is time to move on. He could possibly be a nice part, even a starter, for some other team but I don’t see him adding value to the Mets over alternatives. You put Smith on the bubble with a legit reason to keep him. I’d probably drop him but it’s hard to argue keeping him around as a low leverage reliever. I also agree with Locastro but would add that he only has a place because the Mets failed to develop Baty, Vientos, or Mauricio as legit OFs. Hopefully they don’t make the same mistake with Williams or Acuna. Or Vargas for that matter.