Some fans are willing to give Pete Alonso six or eight years in an effort to keep him in Queens. Would those same fans be willing to give Yoshinobu Yamamoto a similar-length deal? It’s becoming more likely that’s what it will take to get the Japanese pitcher, who will be in his age-25 season next year. Some hoped that the Mets would be able to grab Yamamoto on a deal close to what Kodai Senga received last year – 5/$75 million. But Senga’s performance last year made that unlikely. And Yamamoto’s youth and success – he was better in Japan than Senga – makes a nine-figure deal inevitable. To me, the question is if the total value of the Yamamoto deal will exceed $200 million. My guess is it will.
Most everyone is very cavalier spending Steve Cohen’s money on the Mets. Which would be fine if in the next sentence they wouldn’t talk about what a smart businessman he is. No one reading this knows either Cohen’s tolerance for short-term losses nor how much money has been made or lost owning the Mets. Every detail of player contracts are known but the best we have are ballpark guesses on how much a team is in the red or the black. The best we have are numbers that come from Forbes, a pro-business publication.
Prior to last season, Forbes estimated that in 2022, the Mets had an operating loss of $138.5 million dollars. This past season, the Mets had a higher payroll, a higher luxury tax bill and no income from playoff games. If we accept the $138.5 million loss as being “close enough” to the correct number, we have to assume the number is even higher for 2023. Even a billionaire is going to be staggered by losing $250-300 million over two years.
Even if you don’t believe it, let’s say there’s a cap on how much Cohen is willing to spend and that he’s willing to do either Alonso or Yamamoto for a long-term deal worth roughly $200 million. Which player do you prioritize and why? Is Alonso’s proven production in New York and unmatched power preferable to Yamamoto’s position and age? How do you explain potentially letting one of the finest position players the club has ever produced leave in order to sign an overseas player who may not succeed in this country? How do you justify signing a guy at the easiest defensive position to fill over getting a player four years younger who might have more success than Senga?
My choice here is the pitcher. However, it’s still my hope that Alonso is a Met past 2024, on a short-term, high-AAV deal. But does a smart businessman, much less Alonso and his agent, feel the same way?
Interesting postulate, and although I disagree with the premise, I’ll bite.
I take Alonso on that money. I think Cohen could get 3 starters for the 200M$ that Yamamoto will run. Pete is a money maker for the team in all kinds of sales. he’s in the ASG every year with high visibility. People come to see him hit. He will easily be the greatest hitter on the team ever and clear 500 HR as a Met. He can long term move to DH and easily be the Big Papy of the team. He impacts every game. It was easier for the Braves to let Freeman walk when they already had several players as good or better in the wings, and a player they could pick up and replace with.
On to the false premise. I see your math as very short sighted. Cohen bought a team that clearly was a fixer upper. The plain fact is the Mets are 1 of 2 teams that play baseball in the greatest market in the country and possibly the world. That will never change. So first off he knew full well it would “cost money to make money”. So the short term financial look stinks for burning through cash, but thats the cost of fixing what you bought. Sometimes you buy a house and it turns out you need a new roof and you have to fix a leaky cellar…sucks to have to fix both, but you do because you have to. The next part of this is just the fact that the Mets value as an entity will continue to rise beyond reason. He purchased the Mets in 2020 for 2.4 B$ and today, three years later, the value is 2.9 B$ (500M$ increase) and Im certain would sell for over 3B$ if the team actually went to market. So its wrong to envision his spending as a trashcan fire of 100$ bills. He’s gonna make money hand over fist no matter what he dumps on player personnel – and the park, and the minors and the billions in development at Willets Point.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/194627/mlb-franchise-value-of-the-new-york-mets-since-2006/
Just about right on cue, we get Cohens announcement of an 8B$ park to be built on the old Shea Stadium grounds (now parking lots for CF). Wait til he get his hands on developing Willets point!
http://www.metropolitanpark.com
Alonso at an extension this offseason 6/$150m is palatable and generous. Right now, he is an asset. This time next year he will only be worth a draft pick. If he doesn’t like the offer then trade him. He would fetch a haul on the trade market.
Yamamoto is an unknown quantity and a risk. Tanaka got 7/$155m from the Yankees at age 25. He averaged 2.5 bWAR. This year’s qualifying offer is $20.5m. A fair offer would be 6/ $126m. More would be too risky.
I would like to see both of them in a Mets uniform at those prices.
Pete will get about 7yrs/$200. So will Yamamoto.
Alonso gets more than 25 million a year.
I’ll take the pitcher. I don’t think Alonso will age well. He is fun to watch launching home runs, but I don’t like the rest of his game.
The three most important facets of baseball are pitching, pitching, pitching. That said, I’d have a hard time convincing myself to go to $200 million on Yamamoto, even with Uncle Steve’s dough. I’ve never seen him pitch, his stats are incredible, but he apparently was pretty bad in this postseason, giving up 12 runs and 23 runners in under 13 innings. Small sample, sure, but it also happened in the biggest spot. I’m not one to give Pete a blank check, but Chris makes enough good points that if I had to pick either at that price, I’d take Pete. Just less risk.
I’d sign them all. Player contracts simply continue to increase every year. The qualifying offer for 2024 is $20.5 million. That is crazy. So Pete’s not worth $10 million more a year than the qualifying offer? Of course he is. The Braves were brilliant in seeing the potential explosion of salaries and signing a large group of their nucleus to what now must be considered extremely team friendly contracts. Yamamoto should be a star and at 25 years old, 7 years/$210 million might just be the new forwarding thinking salary structure. And as far their 2023 operating loses, a large part of that would include the luxury tax on payroll. Expect that to decrease. Interesting that Forbes shows that the Mets are worth a half billion more than what Cohen paid in 2020. 20% on your money in three years isn’t too shabby. Happy to have Cohen on our side.
Maybe they will. They would be paid $28.57m a year. In 2022 , fWAR was valued at $8.5m per fWAR so therefore it would be 3.4 fWAR for each player. In his career, Alonso has averaged 3.0 fWAR. In comparison, Senga had a 3.4 fWAR this year so therefore Yamamoto should be better than Senga.
Alonso because of the length of the contract and Yamamoto would be too risky at 7/$200m.
Pete’s 45+ HR’s won’t do anything to make the Mets better, but getting two starters for that money will. Alonso at $30MM is a joke. How is he better than Freeman, who only got $27MM? Joe DeMayo on his SNY podcast claims Alonso will be the highest paid first baseman. Well, from Chris Davis on down, that’s a gamble I’m not taking. In fact, while some may think he could be like David Ortiz, LOL to that. Ortiz during the same age as Alonso was hitting over .300. And while some scuff at that and talk instead of OPS, OPS is a joke that thinks a walk is as good as a hit, and it isn’t. Unless it’s Billy Hamilton that can elect and that walk, I don’t want a hitter that doesn’t want to hit. Yes, take the walk but putting solid wood on the ball often will always result in more damage.
Hamilton can *expand that walk, not elect it.