Biography:
The most famous thing about Luisangel Acuna will instantly be his relation to Ronald Acuna Jr. His older brother is one of the absolute best players in all of baseball and it’s possible that he could become an impact player in his own right. The scouting does not indicate that the younger Acuna will reach the vaunted level of his older brother but there is a lot to like.
He will begin the 2024 season in AAA (most likely) at the age of 22 with tremendous fielding potential and a lot to prove with his bat.
Resume:
MLB.com ranks Acuna fairly well with scores of 55 in hitting, running, fielding and arm strength and a solid score of 50 in power. His results don’t necessarily comply with those scores though. The reality remains that when he switched from AA TEX to AA EAS his numbers all took a precipitous drop.
The obvious reason is that the EAST league is less of a pure hitters league and it will be a large factor into his future with the Mets.
Hitting:
Contact:
The score of 55 for contact from MLB.com is fine. He certainly knows how to get on base and will do so consistently. At the same time, he’s not a .300+ batting average guy. His batting average should live north of .250 and ideally north of .275 with a reasonable number of walks to go with it. He does strike out twice as often as he walks but his strikeout numbers are nothing to be overly concerned with.
Power:
The MLB.com score of 50 might be the most generous of their ratings. Acuna looks to be a 10-15 home run player and that is truly fine given his glove and speed but it isn’t going to make him a superstar player at the major league level.
Speed:
If there is a category where the site under-rates Acuna it is in speed. Acuna stole 57 bags in 2023 and looks to be a 50+ stolen base player assuming a full season of at bats.
Fielding:
The biggest feather in Acuna’s cap is that he is a legitimately good fielding player. Should Francisco Lindor go down with an extended injury the Mets could not rely on the defense of Ronny Mauricio at shortstop. They could rely on Acuna and that is likely to be his fastest path to the majors should he stay with the Mets..
Outlook:
Right now the Mets have two players in the upper minors who are completely blocked from the majors by existing players. Jett Williams and Acuna will both have a hard time reaching the majors with Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and now Ronny Mauricio standing in the way and neither has the power to play third base. Acuna is the best defensive replacement option for shortstop or second base this coming season. It is also possible that Acuna is traded again for a player with more immediate impact potential with the Mets.
Comp:
I am not happy with my comp on Acuna but it’s the best I found so far. Elvis Andrus has had a long and productive MLB career but never became the star that fans had hoped he might be. I think Acuna would be considered the more powerful and speedy in a direct comparison but I don’t think Acuna will see the 20 home run season Andrus managed in 2017, either.
Interesting comp with Elvis Andrus, whose speed and defense led him to six seasons with at least a 3.0 fWAR. The Mets should be thrilled if Acuna is similarly productive. The ZiPS forecasts for the Mets are out and Szymborski has Acuna with a 73 OPS+ in the majors this year. He also lists comps based solely on hitting and his #1 for Acuna is … Andrus! Second was Rafael Furcal and third was Mike Sharperson, who played parts of eight seasons in the majors and had a lifetime 102 OPS+ in 1,383 PA.
The Astros are allegedly shopping Alex Bregman, who will be in the final year of his contract in 2024. I propose an Acuna-Bregman swap. Which side (if any) says no?
This is a fork in the road trade for me. If the fork is were playing seriously to be in the post season and invest in all the pitching necessary to do so, then *yes* on a no-brainer trade like that. However, if the posture is to slow the build up and try to accumulate one good piece and then start making depth moves (very interesting article on that topic in The Athletic):
then Im not happy woth that deal at all. Bregman is a 1 yr rental and that means going for it, so really doubling down on payroll.
https://theathletic.com/5046253/2023/11/09/mets-depth-players/
I agree that it would be a “fork in the road” trade.
I don’t see it necessarily being a one-year rental. I mean, it could be. But I don’t see it being written in stone. I don’t expect you to agree but I’d rather do a 6-or-more-year deal with Bregman than Alonso.
It all comes down to what’s Cohen’s payroll tolerance. In a weird development, payroll is just as much an issue with Cohen as it was with the previous ownership, if at a superficial level. It’s just gone from “they should spend more” to “what will he spend?”
Ill take this payroll issue any day.
That said, we are still in the “limited data, high variability” part of the Cohen ownership. For decades we saw the fetid stink of the Wilpon/Katz ownership. Right now, we are seeing the equivalent of jusding someone’s OPB based on the first week of games. Its all very noisy right now. In fact, if you believe in the long arc for the Stearns hire, then really the 24 season is a hard reset for determining what the team will really do. Simply put: not enough data.
As for Bregman v Alonso, it strikes me “as a grass is greener” think. Pete actually has delivered in NY. We have no clue if Bregman would translate to the NL East. Is he a gamer? To be sure. Would you give him a slumping ’24 on a major trade and long term deal. I mean he aint gonna take less than 8 years.
I would think the Astros could do better than that for Bregman, even as a one year rental. I’d do that in a heartbeat if I was the Mets, even if they don’t extend him.
If the Astros would bite, I would do this trade in a minute.
Acuna seems to fit as a future second baseman because he is a fine defender at the keystone positions, has a good contact hitting skills and has speed. His power is suspect so third base and corner outfield aren’t a good fit. Centerfield could be a fit but Nimmo is blocking his path and Jett Williams has more experience in centerfield ( although limited) and is a better fit for CF. Williams is a better prospect at this point. In all probability, Acuna will make the majors in 2025 when McNeil has two more years on his contract. Could he beat McNeil out?
I would trade Acuna for Bergman in a heartbeat. If Bergman is a rental, then a qualifying offer will recover a draft choice and a sting wouldn’t hurt so much. Astros would asked for more.
Nimmo’s not blocking anyone’s path. He is an average, adequate CF whom the Mets will be happy to move to LF if another legitimate CF comes along. Moving him to left will also reduce the wear and tear on him as he proceeds through this contract that takes through age 37 and past his prime. That CF. however, is more likely to be Drew Gilbert.
Nimmo is better than “adequate” in CF.
But it’s true that he’s unlikely to be playing CF by age 37. However, the big question right now is not if Player X is good enough to displace Nimmo in center. Rather, it’s if he’s good enough to be a starting OF in the majors, regardless of position.
Let’s see how Gilbert hits in SYR. Let’s see how Alexander Ramirez hits once he escapes Brooklyn. Let’s see how Jett Williams follows up his breakout 2023. Of those three, Ramirez is likely the best defensive player. Williams is likely the best offensive player. But none of them are a sure thing to be a multi-year starter and impact player like Nimmo.
I’d trade for Bergman but with other prospects aside from Acuna. At 29 he should have plenty of upside ahead and he makes us stronger on both sides of the ball. Astros don’t need an infielder as I believe they already have someone who can step in at 3B. As for the debate on Pete, who is of similar age, we need to sign him. Sonny Gray just got $75 million over three years, so paying Pete $35 million per is not crazy, however how absurd all these dollars are in the first place.
Maybe McNeil for Bregman?