The ZiPS forecasts for the Mets are out and here are the projections for the Baby Mets:
Francisco Alvarez – 483 PA, .230/.321/.436, 107 OPS+
Brett Baty – 509 PA, .247/.321/.411, 101 OPS+
Ronny Mauricio – 600 PA, .244/.285/.405, 88 OPS+
Mark Vientos – 486 PA, .243/.307/.447, 105 OPS+
Interesting that Mauricio is projected for the most playing time and the worst production. Of course, this isn’t really a projection for playing time, as if you add up all of the PA it would be way, way more than what a team would get in a year. Would you be happy if any of these turned out like this? I’d be fairly happy if this was Vientos’ line. The one that makes me wonder is Baty. He had a 65 OPS+ last year so a jump to a 101 mark would be a substantial improvement. Still, it seems a tad disappointing, at least to me.
At the end of the day, this is just a reminder that while we want all of our top prospects to be stars, reality is a different beast.
I do find it interesting that Zips gives Alvarez the least amount of plate appearances. Barring injuries and giving him a couple of days off each month from catching (I’ll assume he’ll be Dh’ing at least once a week), I envision closer to 600 PA. Of course, it depends if the hitting coach and/or his maturity level allows him to not whiff so much. Perhaps Zips has him with the projection of someone going through a “sophomore slump”.
I also found it odd that Mauricio got so many PA with so low an OPS.
Baty won’t make the team out of ST and/or will be traded for pitching help, in my humble opinion.
I think Zips did the best prediction with Vientos, even if it might be optimistic.
I would definitely expect more from Alvarez and Mauricio, and I really think that Baty is going to be good. I would also be disappointed with a 101 OPS+ for him, even though it would be a big improvement. I think he will be better than that and surprise a lot of doubters.
I’ll be curious to see if the Mets having a Venezuelan manager influences Venezuelan prospects to sign with the Mets. I saw that the #3 prospect is from that country.
Is there a website that has information about where International prospects are likely to sign? Thanks
Baseball America is the best source for this information but it’s a subscription site. MLB.com has a ranking of the top guys but does not have where they’re likely to sign.
With so many IFAs likely to sign deals with MLB teams, it’s harder than usual to find news on amateur IFAs. If you’re not willing to spend on a subscription to BA, your best bet is to wait until last week in December or first week in January to see if some other site will publish that info.
Alvarez is the only Baby Mets that I am sure about because of his power and being a catcher. Defensively he has shown that he is capable. He is much better than other Mets catcher in the immediate past but then Nido, Narvaez or McCann weren’t competitive.
Vientos, should be given a chance because he could be a 22+ homerun player.
Mauricio is the most athletic of the bunch but he hasn’t proven himself that he deserves the second base position instead McNeil.
Baty a has a nice swing. It looks good, but where are the results? Alvarez and Vientos more legit. Mauricio is more versatile than Baty and can more more valuable on the roster than Baty. I would not trade Alvarez because he is a catcher. The other three could be dealt in the trade. It would be a bad risk to have all four of them starting in 2024.
To me, that is a lot of mediocrity. If we had four starters with those numbers, we would be doomed. I don’t see it happening. I think a couple of them may get shipped off and replaced with potential better fits.
I sure hope that Stearns has something up his sleeve for the winter meeting because so far, it’s been pretty much crickets chirping.
Let’s hope Zips is wrong. A lot is riding on the Baby Mets. It could be another long season.
Dont worry about Zips or any projection model. All are basically one fractional step ahead of consulting a magic 8 ball or talking to the local drunk on the street corner or calling the California Psychic Hotline. All this projection crap does is fill dead space between the WS and winter meetings. Its classic pseudo-science. Too many variable many of which cannot be accounted for in any way shape or form. They predict precision of results with not a single shred of error assessment, like here’s an imaginary outlook for Pete Alonso –> OPS+ = 152. Thats 3 significant figures for basically a guess. A statistically honest assessment would look like 150 +/- 15. Frankly I think these models that cloak themselves under the guise of rigorous “statistics,” but really are total BS.
According to Mark Feinsand, Luis Severino to the Mets close to finalized.
I would be very happy with Severino. He could turn into a great value pick.
1 yr 13 million with $2 million in performance incentives. If he ends up as our #5 starter we’ll have had a decent off season.
Super exciting? No. He has such injury issues that it’s hard to imagine a lot out of this. But he has a record that says he can do it. I’d guess 15 starts at most. It looks like hes on the end slide
ERA+
‘17=152
‘18=124
‘19=304
‘21=N/A
‘22=124
‘23=65
They’re expecting more than a #5 starter! Maybe 12 wins,160+innings
2023 MLB there were only 45 pitchers that pitch 160 innings. That is 1.5 pitchers per team. Most teams would like to get 160 innings for their SP#2 let alone their SP#5 !
Severino hasn’t pitched in more than 20 games since 2018 when he was 24. Worth the risk on a 1-year deal, but I hope he’s the SP5, not the SP3.
The Baby Mets projections are depressing. Hoping for a 120 OPS+ from at least one. Baty’s projections seem optimistic and even 101 is low for a corner infielder.
Interesting that ZiPS has 1.7 fWAR for Marte. That seems high given his age and -.8 bWAR last season.
A lot of work to be done on the Hot Stove.
I’d like Vientos to fit in one of the DH spots to take advantage of his bat and not having to expose him in the field. Unless we bring in a Chapman, Mauricio could get the starting job at 3B. Certainly shouldn’t do worse than Baty. Alvarez should be stronger and show more power in 2024. Loved the comment by Mike W on being doomed if four starters had those numbers.
Imagine a six-man starting rotation of Yamamoto, Senga, Eduardo Rodriguez or Montgomery, Imanaga, Quintana, and Severino. More heat, more splitters, etc.
flurry of new roster signings, not a single one worth even mentioning.
so far, the off season is either ugly or a mystery wrapped in a tortilla wrapped in foil. Or maybe its both of those.
either way, not an auspicious start.
Eh, when you have fewer than 30 players on the 40-man roster, you need to add some depth to the organization. Glamorous? No. Necessary? Yes.
I’m intrigued with Kyle Crick and to a lesser extent Austin Adams. Yeah, it’s been awhile since either’s been good. But neither is guaranteed a roster spot and this is the appropriate level to invest/hope for a rebound. Plus, at least these guys have some level of MLB success, which immediately puts them above Eppler’s option reliever guys from a year ago.
With the draft lottery taking place next week, I am curious if anyone knows the odds that we will get a top-6 pick, which then gets protected from the 10-slot penalty. I’ve seen the odds of 4.3% that we’d get the #1 pick, but the real key number is the odds of landing a top 6. Anyone know? Rough math suggests that it’s around 25% (6 x 4.3%) but I know that it is higher than that. Anyone know?
Here are the odds of the 10 worst teams getting a Top 6 pick:
Worst team: 81% (picks no worst than 7th)
2nd-worst: 81% (picks no worst than 8th)
3rd-worst: 81% (picks no worst than 9th)
4th: 71%
5th: 64%
6th: 53.3%
7th: 42.3%
8th: 31.9%
9th: 23.1%
10th: 15.9%
Mets finished with eight-worst record overall but Washington is ineligible for Top 6 pick this year. So, the Mets’ odds of getting that protected pick should be 42.3%
Thank you Brian. I like those odds. My NBA team came up pretty nice in their lottery and now have Wemby as the next in line for the Robinson/Duncan dynasty.
https://x.com/mikemayer22/status/1731133761213854128?s=20
Andre Scrubb is pitching well in winter ball: 13 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 16 K
Hasn’t pitched in big leagues since 2021 and has 3.32 ERA in the majors over 43 innings.
Features curveball that averaged 9.8 inches (tied w/Lugo) of vertical movement in 2020.
If the Mets signs Yamamoto and Imanaga as starting pitchers, Yariel Rodriguez and Yuki Matsui as relievers and Jung Lee Lee for the outfield , all young foreign players then that would be a successful off season. After all, New York City is a melting pot.
Guess we’ll get to see Kelenic play this year
The Atlanta Braves and Seattle Mariners agreed on a trade that will send outfielder Jarred Kelenic, left-hander Marco Gonzales, first baseman Evan White and cash considerations to the Braves in exchange for right-handers Cole Phillips and Jackson Kowar.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39038982/mariners-trading-outfielder-jarred-kelenic-others-braves
The irony…and the potential pain.
From MLBTR:
Astros general manager Dana Brown spoke with reporters at this week’s Winter Meetings. Most notably, the second-year baseball operations leader emphatically shot down speculation about the possibility of moving star third baseman Alex Bregman.
“We’re not interested in trading him,” Brown said (video provided by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). “I think Alex knows that and understands that based on our conversations, so I’m not worried one bit about the articles and the rumors. At the end of the day, Alex is a pillar here. … We’re trying to win here.”